It’s fairly safe to say that Ron Rivera is in the midst of the most successful stint of his coaching career.
The Carolina Panthers head coach has the franchise in perhaps the best position it has ever been to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. They currently stand as the bookmakers’ favorite in Super Bowl 50 against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Coming into the game at 17-1, they have a chance to become just the second team in the Super Bowl era (the 1985 Chicago Bears being the other) to lose a single game en route to a title.
But if we go back in time a few years, we find out that the Panthers aren’t that far removed from the other end of the success spectrum. In Rivera’s first two seasons in charge, Carolina went a combined 13-19. That second season in particular was quite dicey at times. After a 27-21 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 13, the team was staring a 3-9 record in the face. General manager Marty Hurney was fired midway through the season, and many wondered if Rivera would follow at some point.
Even though the Panthers would reel off four straight wins to finish the 2012 season at 7-9, questions remained about Rivera’s status. It wasn’t just the nine losses that year but the frustrating manner in which they occurred. Seven of them, including one that went to overtime, were by six points or less. There were many who criticized his conservative play-calling late in games as a reason for so many close defeats.
When the season concluded, pundits were already speculating about successors to Rivera as Panthers head coach. NFL Network even had a sports radio personality on from Charlotte who implied that his firing was imminent. It became clear that owner Jerry Richardson had a big decision on his hands regarding the future of the franchise.
Whether it was the groundswell of fan support for an embattled head coach or simply a shrewd move he thought was best for the team going forward, Richardson decided to retain Rivera. It’s a move that didn’t take long for people to second-guess when the Panthers started out the 2013 season 1-3. And once again, the whisperings about Rivera’s looming demise were rekindled, made even more discernible after this tweet from NFL Insider Ian Rapoport.
Sources: #Panthers have begun laying groundwork for a possible coaching search, doing background checks on candidates. 1 candidate knows.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 6, 2013
It was then that things suddenly began to change for the better. The source may have been an evolution in Rivera’s coaching philosophy. “Recalcitrant Ron,” always keen to settle for field goals on fourth and short situations in and around the red zone, morphed into “Riverboat Ron.” The Panthers would win 11 of their final 12 games to finish 12-4, win the NFC South and clinch a bye into the divisional round.
Quarterback Cam Newton, so intertwined with Rivera as being the first draft pick of his tenure, turned in the best season of his three-year career at the time. After starting off the season with six touchdown passes and five interceptions in those first four games which reignited his coach’s hot seat, he would settle down rather well, throwing 18 touchdowns to just eight picks the rest of the way. And the Panthers defense would finish the regular season giving up the second fewest points per game in the league.
All of this led to Rivera being named Coach of the Year by the AP and the Pro Football Writers Assocation.
Despite a playoff exit at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, there was a heightened sense of optimism among Panthers fans. The pieces seemed to be in place to build upon the franchise’s first postseason appearance since 2008. With a promising young quarterback and a head coach figuring things out, the future looked bright.
And then, they found themselves in another hole one season later. Much like that 2012 season that nearly spelled the end for Rivera, the Panthers had just three wins after Week 13. The only difference was the fact that the NFC South in 2014 was among the worst divisions in recent memory. Despite a 3-8-1 record, Carolina was a mere game and a half out of first place with four weeks left in the season. If they could replicate that four-game winning streak from two years earlier, a second straight division title was a distinct possibility.
Since then, this team has put together an historic run of success that has rarely been replicated in league history. The Panthers are a combined 22-2 since that 31-13 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on November 30, 2014. They’ve won the division title twice (three consecutive in total) and their only regular season loss came in Week 16 of this year, a 20-13 loss at Atlanta. In fact, that lone blemish is the only thing preventing Carolina from being a win away from keeping Mercury Morris’ champagne on ice.
Not surprisingly, Rivera won his second PFWA Coach of the Year award in three seasons.
The Panthers have all the makings of a complete team on both sides of the football. Newton’s a shoe-in for league MVP. The defense has playmakers all over the field including defensive back Josh Norman, linebacker Luke Kuechly and defensive tackle Kawann Short. And no other team in the league had as many Pro Bowl selections.
The coaching job that Rivera has done to have this team in position to win a Super Bowl cannot be overstated. But it simply wouldn’t have been possible if Richardson had prematurely pulled the plug on his tenure a few years earlier. Way too many owners seem apt to do this. And it could be argued that the lack of stability at head coach is what has turned many franchises in this league into irrelevant laughingstocks.
The three most guilty parties over the last decade have been the Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills. In that span of time, these teams have had a combined 16 head coaches, including seven from the Raiders alone. The average tenure of each was a mere 2.03 years. And the really absurd stat which stands out is the current combined playoff droughts of these teams which stands at a ridiculous 42 years.
Consequently, look at teams with long-tenured coaches. And let’s not even include the New England Patriots. After all, Bill Belichick really is in a league of his own. Let’s instead focus on one division: the AFC North. In particular, we’ll narrow it down to the three teams not named the Browns.
Since 2006, the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens have undergone just two coaching changes. Neither of them were firings. Both Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh succeeded Bill Cowher and Brian Billick respectively after successful tenures by those two coaches. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis has been at the helm since 2003. The past ten seasons have seen these teams make the playoffs a combined 18 times, with both Pittsburgh and Baltimore having won a Super Bowl apiece.
Despite the contrasting examples presented here, there are coaching hires that simply do not work out. As I always say, not everyone is Vince Lombardi or Don Shula or the aforementioned Belichick. Indeed, some hires turn out to be immediate flops (wink, wink Jim Tomsula in San Fran). But by and large, constant coaching turnover is detrimental to a team’s ability to put together viable contenders.
Unfortunately, it’s a byproduct of our “what have you done for me lately” philosophy nowadays when it comes to sporting success. The patience levels of many fanbases, front offices and owners as it relates to building a winner seems to wear increasingly thin over time. And it leads to a counterproductive sentiment from the standpoint of trusting the process a coach wants to implement.
With that in mind, Richardson should be commended for sticking with Rivera through those difficult first years. There can’t be much doubt at this point that the move has paid immense dividends for his franchise. In bucking the trend towards throwing the wrecking ball at the process every few years and instead choosing continuity, Carolina’s one win away from championship glory.
For Rivera, who won a Super Bowl ring 30 years ago as a player on that “Monsters of the Midway” Bears team that similarly lost just a single game, success on Sunday will certainly come full circle.
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