February. It’s that time of the year when college football fans turn to recruiting, senior games, and even the NFL to fill the void of game day Saturdays. Many of us are looking forward to and already prognosticating about 2016. Who’s going to make an unexpected run to the Playoffs? Who’s going to have a disappointing year? Which conference will get left out? But very few of us are looking back. Very few of us are taking a look at our 2015 rankings and seeing how we did.
That’s our very nature: forward looking, ever hopeful, evaluating others, and letting past bad picks live in the past.
Not here. I’m all about accountability. Well, most of the time.
Looking Back: Grading My 2015 Preseason Top 25 Ballot
So I’ve went back and looked at my official 2015 Preseason Top 25 ballot for LastWordonSports and I’ve taken to the painful task of grading myself. Here’s what I’ve done. I compared my preseason Top 25 with the “Composite Rankings” of three polls: the final LWOS poll, the final AP poll, and the final Coaches poll. After this comparison, I determined the differential between my preseason picks and the final standings. Here are my preseason rankings next to the final composite rankings:
For instance, I picked Ohio State #1 in the preseason and they finished with a “composite rank” of #4 (3.66 — #3 in the LWOS poll and #4 in AP and Coaches). So my score with Ohio State was +3. That means I ranked them three spots higher in my preseason poll that what they actually finished. For Alabama, I ranked them #5 in the preseason and they finished #1. That score is -4 (I ranked them four spots lower in the preseason than they ended up in the final polls).
I then classified each team into three categories: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. “The Good” are teams that I had slotted in a position that was plus-or-minus (+/-) five spots from their final rankings. “The Bad” were teams that were in my preseason poll that finished in the Top 25 but were six spots or more away from where I picked them. And “The Ugly” were teams that I picked in the preseason poll that finished the season unranked.
I break them down below and event talk about the teams that I missed. Then I finish by giving myself a grade. Let’s take a look.
The Good:
I had eight teams within five positions (+/-) of their final rankings. Those teams include:
- Ohio State (Picked #1, finished #4)
- TCU (Picked #2, finished #7)
- Alabama (Picked #5, finished #1)
- Michigan State (Picked #6, finished #6)
- Norte Dame (Picked #12, finished #11)
- Florida State (Picked #17, finished #14)
- Oregon (Picked #21, finished #19)
- Tennessee (Picked #25, finished #21)
So I had 32% of my preseason Top 25 finish within five spots of my predicted finish. I think that’s pretty good. Not much to say about each team as the correlation between preseason ranking and final rankings seem to indicate I had that team’s expectations pretty solid. I think it’s interesting that five of the eight are in the Top 11. This indicates that the Top 10-15 programs in the nation are far more predictable than the next tier of 25-35 teams. Additionally, I had two teams (Clemson, #8/#2 and LSU #22/#16) that were only six spots away. Including those, I have a 40% “success” rate.
The Bad:
“The Bad” are those I had picked in the Top 25, just more than five spots away from where they finished. Some aren’t really bad picks, but I can’t cut myself too much slack.
Baylor (#3/#13). I honestly think were it not for injuries, Baylor may have finished within the window, or at least closer than 10 spots off. Of course, injuries are always a part of the calculus, but Baylor went through four quarterbacks this year. I had TCU and Baylor at #2 and #3 because I thought one of them would run the table and get to the playoffs. I took my chances there.
Clemson (#8/#2). Close; as I slightly under-valued their defense. They should have taken USC’s #4 ranking in my preseason Top 25.
Wisconsin (#13/#22). I thought the Badgers rushing attack was stronger than it turned out to be, and some inconsistency cost them against Northwestern and Iowa.
Georgia (#14/#27). I thought it was Georgia’s year. Now I know what it’s like to be a Dawg fan.
Oklahoma (#16/#5). The rise of Baker Mayfield and Stoops’ offseason coaching changes made more of difference than I thought. Kudos to a coach for changing up his system to make the program better.
Stanford (#18/#3). I was concerned about the number of starters coming back for the Cardinal and I thought it was the Pac-12 South’s year. Stanford was clearly the best team in the conference.
Mississippi (#20/#9). I was concerned about Hugh Freeze more than the players. And I took a bet that Chad Kelly couldn’t make it through the season without getting in trouble. They both proved me wrong.
LSU (#22/#16). I was concerned the defense would have to carry an anemic offense and that Leonard Fournette couldn’t run against 8-man boxes. I was mostly right, just wrong about how good Leonard Fournette really is.
So that’s another eight teams, or 32%, of the preseason Top 25 that I had in the right group, just not in the right spot. That’s a total of 64% of my preseason Top 25 that actually finished in the Top 25. That’s not great, but I don’t think it’s too bad.
The Ugly:
I had nine teams ranked in the preseason that ended up unranked in the final polls. That’s how I defined “the ugly”; as teams that I had ranked in the preseason that ended the season unranked. That’s tough when you get to the tail end of the preseason Top 25, as you’ll see with Louisville and Arizona. Teams have my preseason ranking in parenthesis.
Auburn (#11). I readily admit that I feel for the preseason hype. The Malzahn-Muschamp combination was just too much for me to resist. Admittedly, Jeremy Johnson had minimal experience, but so did Jake Coker entering the season. I thought the Auburn defense had the talent that paired well with Muschamp’s style of defensive play-calling. In my defense, I did not have Auburn winning the SEC East like many people; in fact I had Auburn third behind Texas A&M. We’ll get to that in a minute.
USC (#4) and UCLA (#7). So much talent. Both of these teams are probably in the final Top 25 if they win their bowl games. And both teams come from the disappointing Pac-12 South. I had four teams from that division (with Arizona and Arizona State) in my preseason Top 25 and neck-and-neck with the SEC West as the best division in college football. Obviously that didn’t pan out as Utah is the only Pac-12 South team that finished in the Top 25.
Texas A&M (#9) and Arizona State (#10). Fittingly, these two teams started the season by playing each other and both finished the same – with disappointing seasons well outside of the Top 25. Both of these teams were victims of tough schedules, but that’s something you have to take into account in preseason rankings. And the turmoil in College Station has probably set the Aggies back for several seasons after their top two quarterbacks transferred out of the program in the offseason.
Louisville (#19), Arizona (#23), and Kansas State (#24). I’m going to cut myself some slack with this group. Louisville is probably right outside of the Top 25 with 8 wins and three of their five losses to New Year’s Six Bowl teams (Clemson, FSU, and Houston). Arizona had a bowl win and seven wins in a tough Pac-12 South. Louisville and Arizona should almost assuredly be classified as “bad” picks instead of “ugly”. Kansas State was definitely a miss though. Even though they were a bowl team, they qualified as a 6-6 team out of a weak Big 12.
Georgia Tech (#15). OK, I did not see that coming. A crisp option attack with returning skill players and a solid coach in a weak conference. No reason for the rambling wreck to have a horrible 2015 season.
And of course, with teams that finished unranked that means that there are teams that I didn’t pick in the preseason that did indeed prove me wrong by finishing with a national rank. Teams are listed with their composite rankings in parenthesis.
Houston (#8), Navy (#17), Western Kentucky (#24). I’ll be honest, I didn’t rank any of the Group of 5 Conference teams in the preseason Top 25. I’ll have to relook this technique next season. There’s just so many variables outside of the top ten programs in the nation and the margin of error for the G5 teams are razor-thin.
Michigan (#12), Florida (#25). Both of these teams – especially Florida – are probably more “bad” than “ugly” as I had them in the final cut of my preseason Top 25, in the #26-#32 range. I thought both of these teams would suffer from transition and growth in competitive environments. With Michigan, I saw match-ups with two Power out-of-conference opponents and inter-conference match-ups against Michigan State and Ohio State. Jim Harbaugh’s team arrived a season earlier than I thought. Similar with Florida, as I thought the transition to Jim McElwain would cause the Gators to finish third or fourth in the SEC East. I’m still not sure how they beat Tennessee and Ole Miss, but they did. Clearly, the Florida that finished the season is more of the Gator team that I envisioned in the preseason.
Iowa (#10), North Carolina (#15), Utah (#18), Oklahoma State (#20), and Northwestern (#23). All teams I thought would get lost in the mix in their divisions this year. Again, in my defense, both Utah and Oklahoma State — like Michigan and Florida — were in my last cuts and were in my Top 25 ballot after the first two weeks. I didn’t think Iowa would be able to get past Wisconsin and Nebraska in a relatively weak Big 10 West. Similarly, I didn’t see Northwestern coming at all.
Looking at preferences, I really over-valued the Pac-12, with three more teams in my preseason rankings than the conference actually placed in the final composite rankings. Conversely, I under-valued the Big Ten, having three fewer teams in my preseason Top 25 than the conference actually placed in the composite rankings. The strength of the Big 10 West, with Iowa and Northwestern leading the way, was the main difference there. Notwithstanding my deliberate omission of the Group of 5 conferences, I was within +/- 1 on the other three Power 5 conferences. Not too shabby.
Overall Grade: B-
So 32% within +/- 5 positions and a total of 64% of my preseason Top 25 present in the final Top 25 composite rankings. Not bad, but not great, either. I do cut myself some slack with some of the preseason #19-#25 teams that finished with solid seasons. But, it’s about accountability. So there you have it; I got some right, some close, and was wrong on more than a few things. Enough of looking back already, is it time for the 2016 season yet?
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