This Saturday, January 30 2016, two of the UFC’s light heavyweight’s elite talent lock horns in what many expect to be a title eliminator bout. Anthony Johnson looked impressive in his last showing against Jimi Manuwa, reminding us how devastating his punching power is with a second round KO that landed square on “Poster Boy’s” chin, shutting the lights out. He previously took on Daniel Cormier for the vacant light heavyweight strap last May, losing by submission in the third round.
Johnson squares off against Ryan Bader, who is on an impressive five-fight win streak, most recently besting perennial top talent Rashad Evans, who is one of “Rumble’s” teammates. Bader has been vocal about getting his title shot, which he claims is long overdue. However, anyone who’s followed the UFC as of late knows that winning in style – or spectacular fashion – can often outweigh a string of decision victories.
Alexander Gustafsson made waves after he received another crack at the belt following a first-round TKO loss to the aforementioned Johnson, likely because of his fan-friendly fighting style and his propensity to ignite the crowd with his display of striking technique and KO power. If Ryan Bader wants to make a compelling case for a title shot, he needs to do more than earn a decision victory over “Rumble” Johnson, and he needs to do it in exciting fashion. Bader has been known to lay-n-pray in the past, using his effective but dreary wrestling to maintain top control and pitter-patter his opponent with perfunctory ground-n-pound.
Johnson, Bader Vie for Title Contention
Bader’s keys to victory in this fight are alternating his striking with his wrestling and mixing things up. He showed some improvements in his striking in his last fight vs Rashad Evans, but his methodical approach seemed too conservative at times, and he could have pushed the pace and possibly finished that fight. If Bader wants to defeat Rumble – and defeat him impressively – he needs to earn Rumble’s respect. That means using his tried-and-true jab / right cross combination to set up a powerful left hook, which we’ve seen put guys away in the past. He showed some improvements in his kicking against Evans, landing several vicious body kicks that kept Evans gun-shy and guessing.
If Bader lets Rumble set the pace for this fight, it will probably be a short night for the stalwart ASU wrestler. Rumble has an intimidating cage presence and puts a lot of pressure on his opponents, using excellent footwork to cut off the cage and limit the ability of his opponents to move laterally and out of danger. He also has a four-inch reach advantage, and mixes up his punches and kicks with pinpoint accuracy and absolutely ferocious power. Make one mistake, and Rumble will shut your lights off.
Rumble Johnson comes in at a healthy -310 to -350 favorite, according to most betting odds, and rightfully so. He has more tools to win this fight by KO and owns the defensive wrestling capable of stuffing Bader’s takedown attempts and keeping enough distance to stay in the pocket where he can land those nasty strikes. Bader will need to execute a perfect game plan against Rumble, most likely consisting of a clinch-heavy game against the cage in the opening couple rounds in order to tire out the arms of Rumble, before opening up his striking more in the third round as the monstrously explosive Blackzilian starts to fade. Bader will need to land at least one takedown per round if he wants to offset the difference in striking power and aggression that Rumble possesses over the entire division.
Make no mistake – Ryan Bader most certainly has a chance of winning this fight, but Rumble is more likely to earn a victory capitalizing on a mistake than is Bader. “Darth” will need a much more methodical, strategic approach to neutralize the offense of Rumble in the opening two rounds before setting up a submission (or possibly TKO) against a tired Rumble.
All in all, this fight is a pivotal one in the UFC’s marquee division; a portent of future success or failure for both of these top-tier light heavyweight competitors.
What are your thoughts on this fight? Do you think Darth will extend his win streak to six and finally get that title shot he’s so desperately wanted? Or will Rumble bring the storm and starch the Power MMA standout with lightning fast speed and power?
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