Last draft season, seemingly every fantasy baseball expert was prescribing Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman as the remedy to every fantasy team’s mid-round pitching quandary. In 2014, Stroman pitched over 130 innings across twenty-six appearances (twenty starts), earning a 3.65 ERA with a 3.17 xFIP. Stroman’s promising stat line was backed up by a mature 5.2% walk rate, 20.8% strikeout rate, and a 53.8% groundball rate.
Following Stroman’s 2014 rookie campaign, Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs and Kyle Matte at Capital Jays each wrote pieces breaking down the horizontal and vertical movement of Stroman’s pitch arsenal, comparing his offerings to those of Johnny Cueto, Chris Archer, and Jose Fernandez. However, Sullivan and Matte also cautioned readers that similar pitch comparisons do not always translate to similar levels of effectiveness from one pitcher to the next.
Surely 2014’s statline, peripheral numbers, and the shapes of Stroman’s pitches all led to fantasy greatness, right? Well, not so fast. Stroman also made a notable pitch usage change in the middle of 2014. In the second half of 2014, Stroman favored his sinker over his four-seam fastball, resulting in more groundballs and weak contact. The transition was a positive one for his final line, except when it came to his strikeouts. As you can see from the tables below, the sinker is not an offering that generates a high total of swings and misses. Stroman’s increased sinker usage potentially represents an issue for Stroman’s strikeout rates, and therefore also his fantasy value.
MLB Pitch Type Averages:
| Pitch Type | All Whiff % |
| Four Seam | 16% |
| Sinker | 12% |
| Changeup | 29% |
| Slider | 32% |
| Curve | 30% |
| Cutter | 20% |
Marcus Stroman-2014 (2077 pitches)
| Pitch Type | All Whiff % | Pitch Usage % |
| Four Seam | 19 % | 36% |
| Sinker | 11% | 18% |
| Changeup | 33% | 7% |
| Slider | 26% | 7% |
| Curve | 30% | 16% |
| Cutter | 17% | 16% |
Sullivan’s article goes on to compare Stroman’s sinker to Roy Halladay’s. A comparison to Roy Halladay is always flattering, but Halladay never eclipsed a 24% strikeout rate over a full season in his entire career. Halladay did rack up quite a few 200 strikeout seasons, but mostly because his pitch economy allowed him to pitch between 235 and 260 innings per season (something that Stroman will not be expected to do anytime soon).
The 2015 fantasy offseason narrative was that Stroman would be able to compliment his sinker with other pitches to increase his strikeout rate.
Unfortunately, in spring training, Stroman tore his ACL in pitching drills. Initially Stroman was thought to be lost for the season, but to his credit, Stroman rehabbed his leg and was able to return to the Blue Jays rotation for the stretch run. Stroman pitched in four games in 2015, posting a sterling 1.67 ERA and a 3.34 xFIP. However, Stroman disturbingly only struck out eighteen batters across twenty-seven innings (17.5% strikeout rate) in those four starts.
Stroman-2015 (655 Pitches)
| Pitch Type | All Whiff % | Pitch Usage % |
| Four Seam | 17 % | 5% |
| Sinker | 12% | 46% |
| Changeup | 19% | 11% |
| Slider | 19% | 14% |
| Curve | 26% | 14% |
| Cutter | 16% | 10% |
Small sample caveats apply here, but Stroman’s increased sinker usage and increased groundball rate at the expense of the four seamer and strikeout rate were amplified during Stroman’s short 2015 season. The four seamer was practically non-existent for Stroman down the stretch, which should cause serious alarm for fantasy owners heading into 2016. Stroman’s use of the sinker increased to 46% and his groundball rate ballooned to 64.1% (which is great if your league awards points for groundball percentage…).
Stroman has accrued 157.2 major league innings in the past two seasons, but he has a fantasy profile that more readily resembles Jimmy Nelson, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Jose Quintana than it does Chris Archer. Don’t get me wrong, Iwakuma and Quintana are very good pitchers in real life and strong options in fantasy, but they do not get an elite number of strikeouts, which limits their fantasy value.
| Year | Sinker % | 4 Seam % | K % | GB % |
| 2014 | 18% | 36% | 21% | 54% |
| 2015 | 46% | 5% | 18% | 64% |
I do not foresee Stroman significantly decreasing his sinker usage in 2016 since it has become an integral part of his mix. Stroman has all the pitches to be a great pitcher in the future, but it would not surprise me if he struggles to eclipse 200 innings or reach 165 strikeouts in 2016. Stroman’s current NFBC ADP is pick 104 (27th pitcher off the board). It would not be surprising if Marcus Stroman fails to earn a top-forty fantasy pitcher ranking in 2016. My fear is that his fantasy expectations will soar over the next two months, and owners will be disappointed when Stroman posts pedestrian strikeout numbers this summer and faces an early shutdown this September.
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