Don’t bury Ohio State Buckeyes Basketball just yet. After a 100-65 bashing at #3 Maryland last Saturday, many college basketball experts have officially thrown dirt over the Ohio State Buckeyes. The bandwagon, even for diehard fans, continued to empty even after the inexperienced Buckeyes’ hard fought loss at seasoned Purdue on Thursday night. But upon a closer look, Buckeye fans should actually be quite hopeful, because NCAA tournament bids are all about schedule. Minimizing the damage on the road, and cashing in on top 50 RPI teams at home allow even teams that have struggled in the non-conference schedule to remain on the bubble.
Don’t Bury The Ohio State Buckeyes Basketball Just Yet
The loss at Purdue dropped Ohio State to 4-3 in the Big 10. And while many experts over the past few years, have discredited the RPI and claim to ignore conference record; the fact of the matter is that both play a significant role in a team making the NCAA tournament. Take for example recent bracket projections for teams like Kansas State and Texas Tech. Tech being an 8 seed currently, and Kansas St being squarely on the bubble. But, Kansas State currently sits at 2-5 in the Big 12, and based on most analytics, is trending towards 7-11 in the league. While many people state that league record doesn’t matter, four games under .500 in a major conference simply does not get you in, regardless of your non-conference schedule.
Only 4 teams since 2010 have made the NCAA tournament with a losing conference record. No team has ever made the tournament with a conference record below two games under .500. Texas Tech is trending on that same dangerous path at 8-10ish in the Big 12, and will gradually slide down seed charts even though currently they are being lauded. Which brings us back to Ohio State. This is a team that has only one upper classman, in Junior Marc Loving, and the rest of the rotation is a mix of freshmen and sophomores. Their play has gotten better over the course of the year, but with a young team, progress is not always linear. Road games in tough environments such as Indiana and Maryland are basically ‘throw away’ games. The score doesn’t really matter, the effort and experience does. Both will continue to improve under coach Thad Matta. While most fans and even analysts overreact to final scores, the Buckeyes schedule sets up perfectly to give themselves a chance at an NCAA bid.
Road games at Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Rutgers all fit within the ‘manageable or plausible’ category, with only one more road ‘throw away’ game left, their regular season finale at Michigan State. A 10-8 Big Ten record and a top 40 non-conference SOS will put them squarely on the bubble and most likely in.
So how can the Buckeyes get the math to add up to 10 wins? Well, four wins already are banked including a road win at bubble team Northwestern. A 4-3 record must become 5-3 with home win over Penn State on Monday night. Then their stretch run begins. They must win 2 or 3 of the ‘manageable’ road games, let’s say Rutgers and Illinois which makes 7. That leaves 5 home games, and all the types of home games that could vault their current #70 RPI into the 30s and give them multiple quality wins. Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa all come to town. All except for Northwestern with a top 35 RPI.
Young teams inherently play much better at home, so 3 wins out of that group of 5 would get them to 10 wins and a realistic shot. Remember that according to KenPom, a road win at unranked Oklahoma State is tougher than a home win against #17 Iowa State. Having these highly ranked teams come to Columbus provides an incredible opportunity.
A further breakdown of bubble teams last year shows a Boise State team with only 2 top 50 wins that made the NCAA tournament. Ohio State would have four to five, as one is already banked in a neutral court win over Kentucky. Of course, some of the needed favorable Buckeye outcomes would require upsets and still leave them with work to do in the Big 10 tournament, but remember it’s only January. The team is young and so don’t throw dirt over the Buckeyes just yet. An eighth straight NCAA tournament will appear very far away the recent loss to Purdue, but it’s actually closer than you would think.
