In recent times only a select few have been able to topple Novak Djokovic. The dominant number one player in the world has taken on and beaten all comers, with only Stan Wawrinka being able to stop him in a best of five scenario last year.
Even at his worst and hitting 100 unforced errors, Djokovic managed to grind out a victory over Gilles Simon in an epic five set clash in round four of the ongoing Australian Open- that’s quite scary.
Next to test his wits against the Serbian is Kei Nishikori, who in turn looked great in dispatching Jo Wilfried Tsonga in straight sets that very day.
The Japanese star has proven in the past he can defeat Djokovic in Grand Slam competition. At the US Open in 2014, Nishikori overcame the world number one in four sets before going on to lose the final to Marin Cilic.
Djokovic has become an even bigger and more dominating force since that day and has proven even more difficult to beat. So how can Nishikori go against the odds and pull an upset? Here’s five ways he can.
1: Land a high percentage of first serves
Yes, you just said ‘Well duh, is that not a key to every match?’. The answer would be yes, but against Djokovic it is even more vital.
Nishikori does not possess a huge serve, as a matter of fact it is a below average serve in comparison to the rest of the tour. Going against arguably the greatest returner to ever grace the game without a big serve spells danger in itself. If you serve at a low percentage then it is just asking for trouble.
The world number seven does not have a big serve, but it goes without saying that his first serve is harder to return than his second. If Nishikori serves at a low percentage, Djokovic will eat his second serve for breakfast. If Nishikori can land a high percentage of first serves, then there is less intent coming back at him and thus it is easier to hold.
It is very basic but it is key to Nishikori beating Djokovic. Often times a player can get away with a lower serving percentage with their ground game- that is unlikely to happen with Nishikori here.
2: Capitalise on the second serve
On the return, Nishikori must take full advantage of any second serve looks he gets. The Japanese can not be content with just getting the ball back into play and starting from a neutral position because the chances are that Djokovic outlasts him in the rally.
On the other hand, Nishikori can not afford to miss any second serve returns either. Therefore he has to be aggressive but not too eager to boom a return. Nishikori is one of the better returners on tour and he must use that weapon to put Djokovic on the back foot early in the rally.
If Djokovic gets away with second serves then Nishikori will not see many break point chances if any at all.
3: Controlled Aggression
Gilles Simon might have outlasted Djokovic in many rallies to extract 100 unforced errors, but for Nishikori this is not the right game plan.
The world number seven has to be aggressive from the off and state his intention that he is not afraid to go after the world number one. He has to dictate and make sure he does not let Djokovic take command of the rally with his deep shots. The backhand down the line will be a key shot as the Serbian’s defensive backhand is undoubtedly the best around.
Of course he can not go for too much otherwise he will make a ton of unforced errors. Nishikori has to pick the right moments to step up his aggression and not allow himself to be too passive throughout the match.
4: Use variety
If there has been one thing that Djokovic has not liked, it is when his opponents use variety to disrupt his rhythm.
The most consistent challenge to the world number one has been Roger Federer who of course has one of the most varied games on tour.
When Djokovic gets into his baseline rhythm there is nobody who can beat him from the back of the court unless a player has one of those days where he can’t miss- like Wawrinka at the French Open.
Nishikori is very much similar to Djokovic in many respects, but it is he who must alter from his usual style of play to win this match.
The Japanese should look to mix in slices, drop shots, changes of pace and come to the net in order to keep Djokovic guessing and not allowing him to settle into his usual patterns. Playing the baseline game against the Serbian is too risky even if he is successful with that plan, so variety will be a key tactic for Nishikori.
5: Get the crowd into the match
If there is anything that gets under the skin of the world number one, it is the crowd actively cheering for his opponent. Nishikori is not the most charismatic players on tour, but he is the best for Asia and he is the under-dog so people will naturally want to cheer him on.
If Nishikori can use the crowd to his advantage to make Djokovic lose focus then that will go a long way towards helping him get the win. Will it guarantee victory? No it won’t. Look at the US Open final with one of the most pro Federer crowds you will ever witness, yet Djokovic still came out on top.
But if Nishikori can get the crowd on his side then it might help in unsettling Djokovic, and combined with the above factors could earn a victory for the Japanese.
Verdict:
Djokovic comes into the match as a huge favourite and rightfully so. He is the best player in the world by a long distance on his favourite court that has yielded years of success. However Nishikori has proven he can beat Djokovic before in a best of five situation and has the capabilities to do it again.
It will require Djokovic to not be at his best and Nishikori to play very well for the upset to happen, but this could be match of the tournament if both players show up in good form.
That said my prediction is that Djokovic comes through in four sets. Nishikori will prove tricky and will have a set where everything he hits turns to gold, but overall Djokovic will find his way through to the semi finals and be too much for the seventh seed.
Main Photo:
