The biggest MLB news on Monday came when the Detroit Tigers continued their shopping spree during the offseason, inking free agent outfielder Justin Upton to a six-year, $132.75 million deal. Detroit is trying to improve on its 74-87 2015 record, which landed them in last place in the AL Central for the first time since 2008. Upton has a nice bat, but in what ways does this affect Upton, the Tigers and remaining free agents?
Upton, 28, does add more power to a Tigers lineup which could use some after last season. J.D. Martinez paced the team with thirty-eight home runs, but no one else, including batting champion Miguel Cabrera, hit at least twenty. When it comes to the long ball, Upton has gone deep twenty-five or more times in a season five times in his career. Though this will be the first time he’s ever played for an American League franchise, he has done well in Inter-League play in his career. A .276 average with a .352 on-base percentage isn’t that bad, even if he struck out 130 times. He went 13-for-42 against his new club. His lone homer against the Tigers came at Comerica Park.
It is worth also looking at ballpark statistics in 2015 for both Upton’s new squad and his old one, the San Diego Padres, with whom he called Petco Park home. About 9% of the balls hit out of San Diego came off of Upton’s bat; he hit fifteen homers in his home field in 2015 out of 166 home runs total at the stadium, which ties it for sixth place in the N.L. with Dodger Stadium.
The problem with his new park is that balls aren’t hit out as often in Detroit as they are in San Diego. ESPN Home Run Tracker says that an average of 1.89 home runs were hit per game at Comerica in 2015 for a total of 153 long shots. Only O.Co Coliseum in Oakland (1.72, 139 homers), Progressive Field in Cleveland (1.86, 149), and Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City (1.60, 130) had lower rates. Martinez hit twenty homers in Detroit, compared to eighteen on the road. His twenty home runs accounted for roughly 13% of the total balls that left the yard there. Considering Upton’s power, his numbers may decline slightly, since the A.L. Central doesn’t have the launching pads that Yankee Stadium or Camden Yards do in the A.L. East.
Still, one can never be too sure. Maybe he’ll find a way to hit well in his new league and new park, since all we have is a small sample size. He definitely has a powerful bat. The only thing to speculate about is how powerful it becomes given the statistics, splits, and the small sample sizes surrounding everything taken into equation. Upton did have one of the better seasons of his career in 2015, with Baseball-Reference grading him at a 4.4 WAR, second only to his 6.1 in 2011 with the Diamondbacks.
It seems like the Tigers got a good, solid player. Not a great player, not someone who’s likely to win an MVP in his career, but someone who could be effective enough to help the lineup. Despite his age, he might be worth a little less than $132.75 million given his output, though he could certainly be good and still be slightly overpaid. It remains to be seen if this helps the Tigers get out of fifth, but their championship window might be closed at the moment despite also inking Jordan Zimmermann, who wasn’t as productive in his contract year in 2015 as he was in the two seasons before that. Plus, they got their hands on Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson to help a bullpen that is in need of efficiency.
This could also push up the market for Yoenis Cespedes, given how much the outfield market has shrunk. Cespedes has reportedly also sought a six-year deal and might very well make more than $100 million, or even more than Upton, with whichever team lands him. The only thing Upton has on Cespedes is that Upton is two years younger, but signing a rich contract in that age range can, and does, happen.
Cespedes boosted a Mets offense which was struggling to score runs prior to his acquisition from Detroit. He, and the Mets, heated up with his bat and zoomed past the Washington Nationals to capture a playoff berth and the N.L. East for the first time since 2006. A .286 batting average in the NLCS helped lift New York to its first National League pennant since 2000. Jimmy’s Famous Seafood tweeted on January 15 that Cespedes would get free crabs for life if he signed with the Orioles. Imagine Cespedes and Chris Davis hitting in the same park after the latter re-signed with the Os for $161 million over seven years, with $42 million deferred for the fifteen seasons after that.
Unlike Upton and Davis, Cespedes has helped carry a team to a pennant. Whichever team Cespedes signs with, as well as whichever of these three will be the most productive going forward, ought to be very interesting to watch.
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