Novak Djokovic is the clear favorite to win the Australian Open after posting one of the best seasons in Open Era history in 2015.
The five-time Australian Open champion won 82 of his 88 matches, lifting a record six Masters crowns while joining Rod Laver and Roger Federer as the third player in history to reach all four Grand Slam finals in a calendar year.
The World #1 started the 2016 campaign right where he left off, winning his first tournament of the year in Doha without dropping a set, dispatching Rafael Nadal 6-1, 6-2 in the final.
Australian Open: Who can defeat Novak Djokovic?
Can anyone stop the Serbian force from claiming his 11th Grand Slam?
Roger Federer
Federer is the top candidate as he was the only player to defeat Djokovic multiple times in the 2015 season.
The former World #1 seems to have cracked the code as he defeated the Serb on three occasions last year: Dubai, Cincinnati, and at the group stage in London’s World Tour finals.
Change of pace: Federer’s strategy against Djokovic is focused on hitting a low backhand slice while mixing it up with a heavy deep topspin that will give him time to attack the net aggressively; this will keep Djokovic from hitting the ball on the rise while not allowing him to grab control of the rally.
Also, Federer avoids engaging long rallies with the Serb, and as soon as he can grab the offensive during the point he will try to look for a winner or disrupt the Serb to move quickly into the net.
It is not always effective as it is a strategy that involves high risks and, of course, Djokovic will have answers to this approach, but Federer has clearly been the most successful player in recent times against the seemingly unbeatable World #1.
The question: will Federer have the legs to pull out a win against Djokovic in a best of five-set match?
2016 season start: Lost 6-4, 6-4 vs. Milos Raonic at Brisbane International final
Head to head career record: Federer 22-22 Djokovic
Australian Open potential draw:
1R: Basilashvili
2R: Dolgopolov
3R: Dimitrov
4R: Dominic Thiem
QF: Thomas Berdych
SF: Novak Djokovic
F: Andy Murray
Official odds winning Title: 10.00
Andy Murray
Although Murray has not defeated Djokovic in a Grand Slam since 2013, the Scot longs to claim revenge after his fall in last year’s Australian Open final 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-0 against the Serb.
Murray is coming off a stellar year, finishing at the #2 spot for the first time in his career while claiming his first two clay titles (Munich and Madrid) and also ended Great Britain’s 79-year drought for the Davis Cup crown.
The World #2 ended his eight-match losing streak against Djokovic in last year’s Montreal final, claiming his fourth title in the 2015 campaign.
The US Open and Wimbledon champion has reached the final in Melbourne on four occasions, 2010 vs. Federer and 2011, 2013, and 2015 vs. Djokovic, and looks to be headed in the same direction this year as Murray mathematically obtained the perfect draw as he will play the lowest possible seed in all four rounds before the final.
The question: does coach Amelie Mauresmo have the key to beat the Serb?
Head to head career record: Murray 9-21 Djokovic
2016 season start: No tournaments played
Australian Open potential draw:
1R: Alexander Zverev
2R: Sam Groth
3R: Joao Sousa
4R: Bernard Tomic
QF: David Ferrer
SF: Rafael Nadal/Stan Wawrinka
F: Novak Djokovic/Roger Federer
Official odds winning Title: 7.00
Stanislas Wawrinka
Wawrinka amazed the world of tennis during last year’s season as he claimed his second career Grand Slam by defeating Djokovic in four sets and denying him of his absent French Open title.
The Swiss, who is considered one of the hardest hitting players and to have one of the best/natural backhands on Tour, was the only one capable of defeating the Serb engaging with a baseline tactic.
Although the 2014 Australian Open champion is capable of defeating any player when he is on his day, Wawrinka is also an unpredictable force filled with ups and downs, where maintaining consistency during a tournament and throughout the year remains the Swiss’ primary concern.
However, Wawrinka started out the 2016 season on the right path, winning the Chennai Open without dropping a set, making him a major threat for any player that will face him in Melbourne, including Novak Djokovic.
The question: Will it be Wawrinka’s day?
Head to head career record: Wawrinka 4-19 Djokovic
2016 season start: Champion Aircel Chennai Open vs. Borna Coric 6-3, 7-5.
Australian Open potential match ups:
R1: Dimitri Tursunov
R2: Qualifier
R3: Jack Sock
R4: Milos Raonic
QF: Rafael Nadal
SF: Andy Murray
F: Novak Djokovic/Roger Federer
Official odds winning Title: 13.00
Rafael Nadal
Nadal appears on the list as a potential threat to Djokovic, since he is a 14-time Grand Slam champion, a fearsome competitor, and a player that will give all for the sake of victory.
The Manacor born showed a better form of himself towards the end of last year’s season, rising from #10 to #5, defeating Wawrinka and Murray in the World Tour Finals.
However, evidently the Spaniard needs to boost his game extremely to turn things around against the World #1.
The Problem: Nadal’s way of play just fits perfectly into Djokovic strategy.
The Spaniard’s long rallies do not affect the World #1; it just gives him time to “cook up” the opponent as he decides when to strike.
Nadal uses high topspin shots with a low alteration of pace during the game (it involves slice, hard-hitting flat shots, high % of net points, etc.) which gives Djokovic the opportunity to hit the ball on the rise quickly from the baseline allowing him to easily grab control of the rally.
These are one of the reasons on why the Spaniard did not claim a set against Djokovic in the entire 2015 season, and 2016 does not look promising as the Serb slaughtered him during this year’a final in Doha 6-2, 6-1.
The question: is the old Nadal still in there and can Uncle Toni change the strategies?
Head to head career record: Nadal 23-24 Djokovic
2016 season start: Doha Final vs. Djokovic 6-2, 6-1
Australian Open potential match ups:
R1: Fernando Verdasco
R2: Benjamin Becker
R3: Jeremy Chardy
R4: Kevin Anderson
QF: Stan Wawrinka
SF: Andy Murray
F: Novak Djokovic/Roger Federer
Official odds winning Title: 12.00
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