The first marquee tournament of the 2016 ATP season is the 2016 Australian Open. With all of the top players except Richard Gasquet participating, some look poised to post good results, while others could crash out before the first week is over. Novak Djokovic enters as the tournament favorite, and of course qualifies as “hot” as well. As we will take a look at names that should impress, and disappoint over the next two weeks.
Hot
5: Alexandr Dolgopolov
With Roger Federer looming it’s unlikely Dolgopolov gets past the second round, but the Ukrainian shotmaker helped his country reach the Hopman Cup final, and also reached the quarterfinals in Sydney as he seems to be playing well with his very hot and cold game. Should he catch Federer on a bad day in round 2 we could be in for a treat of a match.
4: Dominic Thiem
Thiem beat Marin Cilic and gave Roger Federer a good run around in the semifinals of ATP Brisbane. the Austrian continues to make strides on tour and his top 20 ranking gives him a great chance to reach the second week. Thiem opens with veteran Leonardo Mayer, with ball striker David Goffin looming in round 3 . Goffin is a tough out right now, but Thiem has beaten him before.
3: Borna Coric
Coric, who reached his first ever ATP final in Chennai, has countryman Marin Cilic as a tough test in round 2, but if he notches the upset he could advance as far as the fourth round, where he’d run into Tomas Berdych. Coric is a versatile shotmaker with a good mental game, and he plays beyond his years, just like his fellow young gun Thiem. Both could make their move onto the headlines in Melbourne.
2: Milos Raonic
Raonic beat both home favorite Bernard Tomic, and defending champion Roger Federer in Brisbane to capture the title. The Canadian suffered through injuries in 2015, but he is healthy and extremely motivated to reach new heights in 2016. With his aggressive power serving Raonic is tough to defeat, but he’ll have to get past Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round most likely. Raonic has never beaten Wawrinka, but there is a first time for everything, and the Canadian is a dark horse.
1: Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka is also in great form, and could capture his second Australian Open title in two weeks time. Stan won the Chennai 250 warm-up, and he’s won a grand slam title the previous two seasons. Wawrinka was a true late bloomer, but over the past couple of years he’s secured himself a spot in the top 4, and he’s a genuine threat in most of the big tournaments. With his powerful backhand, Wawrinka will need to handle Raonic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and likely Novak Djokovic to capture the title. It’s a tough path, but doable for him.
Cold
5: Steve Johnson
Johnson is 0-2 in 2016 with losses to Viktor Troicki and journeyman Matthew Barton. The #31 seed had a great 2015, and the American was looking to make his move into the top 20 in 2016, if he doesn’t pull his game together soon on his preferred hard courts, that’ll be a tough ask however. His matches at the AO will be against Aljaz Bedene, and then likely Thomaz Bellucci and David Ferrer if he wins. It’s a reasonable draw, but he may not take advantage.
4: Andreas Seppi
Seppi reached the second week in Melbourne last year, but this year he’s 1-2, and was also poor last fall. The #2 Italian is seeded 28th, but Teymuraz Gabashvili could well oust him in the opening round, and he’s on a path that would see him get mauled by Novak Djokovic in the third round. Age could be catching up with this varied ball striker after a hot start last year.
3: David Ferrer
Speaking of age, the grinder Ferrer is in the top 8 at 33, and he’s twice a semifinalist at the Australian Open. The Spaniard struggled through uncharacteristic losses to Illya Marchenko and Jack Sock in Doha and Auckland though, and does not appear to be playing anywhere near his best tennis at the moment. Ferrer could send Lleyton Hewitt into retirement in round 2, but John Isner poses a problem in the fourth round. Ferrer could still have a great showing, but he looks shaky right now.
2: Feliciano Lopez
Another struggling Spaniard on this list, Lopez lost his only match in Doha this year to Daniel Munoz De La Nava, a career journeyman, and appears to be struggling with his serve and volley game at the moment. Feli has never made it beyond the fourth round in Melbourne and the #18 seed will face spirited qualifier Dan Evans in round 1, and likely John Isner in round 3. His result should fall below his ranking this year at the AO.
1: Kei Nishikori
Nishikori has twice made the quarterfinals in Melbourne, and he’s looking to make a move back into the top 5, with more slam semifinals or better this season. Kei has the talent, but he looked to be wilting in Brisbane, and his conditioning has always been somewhat questionable for a hot place like Australia. Nishikori is a trendy pick to do well but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Benoit Paire will be gunning to oust him before he fulfills his seed line and makes the quarterfinals.
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