Only 8 teams remain: 4 from the AFC and 4 counterparts in the NFC to decide who will play in Super Bowl 50 and ultimately hoist the Lombardi Trophy into the San Francisco night on the first Sunday in February.
Look NFL fans: if that doesn’t get your blood flowing and your excitement level doesn’t ratchet up a few notches then you’re a fan of the wrong sport, and quite frankly you’re not very American.
In the NFL Playoffs, there usually isn’t anything better than divisional weekend, and last season was a perfect example. Remember Patriots-Ravens from last season, or the epic battle between the Ravens and the Broncos that took 2 overtimes to decide a winner?
Just saying, its going to be fun.
The Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, Steelers, Seahawks, Panthers, Cardinals, and Packers are all gunning for a spot in next week’s conference championship games.
Those teams have survived a 17 week season and for some a wild card playoff game just to get here. Now the class of the NFL will do battle in the trenches on Saturday and Sunday, and ultimately we will know who will represent each conference on Championship Sunday.
That is what is at stake, and that is what these teams, players, coaches, and fans are playing for.
If you’re wondering why I am getting so excited here is my reason: as a Cardinals fan I will be attending my first NFL game today when my team faces the Packers, and I can’t wait. Go Cards! Ok that is out of the way.
Today I will offer up my predictions for today’s games. Lets start with the early game between the Chiefs and the Patriots on CBS.
Keys, Predictions for Chiefs vs. Patriots
Top Storylines
Chiefs:
The biggest headlines for every team in the divisional round has nothing to do with strategy on the field. Instead the health of many key players is what everybody is keeping an eye on.
This doesn’t change with K.C. The health of the Chiefs top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin has been in question all week, and is still very much up in the air. Jeff Darlington of the NFL Network reported earlier today that Maclin is facing an uphill battle and he will have to overcome a lot.
If Maclin can’t go that is a huge blow for the Chiefs offense. Maclin is the number one and in some games the only legit receiving threat. Maclin lead the team with 1,088 receiving yards and 8 eight touchdowns to go along with a career high 87 catches.
Patriots:
On the other side, health is also the top storyline for the AFC’s two-seed. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is expected to play through pain which is huge for New England.
Wide receiver Julian Edelman will also be back for New England. Edelman is by far the key to the Patriots offense and I would argue the best pass catcher on the team. He is more valuable than Gronk is right now. This is fact: when Edleman plays the Pats are 9-0 and when he doesn’t they are an under .500 team.
Linebacker Chandler Jones’ status is up in the air and could face scrutiny under the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Many have said that Jones needs to sit for some period of the game to send a message, but Jones is also New England’s best pass rusher and the biggest key for the Pats defense today is putting pressure on Smith. We will see what Bill Belichick does.
Offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer is expected to play today, and that is huge for the Pats offense. He will have to deal with one of the league’s best pass rushes. Remember the last time the Chiefs played the Pats? Tom Brady was pushed around all game.
Key Matchups:
The battle in the trenches are going to be the key’s to this game. It’s simple: any team that has beaten the Patriots in the playoffs (and there haven’t been many lately especially at Gillette Stadium) find a way to disrupt Tom Brady. If the Chiefs can get to Brady that will give the secondary led by safety Eric Berry and cornerback Marcus Peters a chance to make plays in the open field.
Patriots tackle Marcus Cannon vs. Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston
Patriots pass rush vs. Chiefs offensive line
Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman vs. Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters
Key’s For Both Teams:
Chiefs:
Protect Alex Smith, and find a way to get wide receivers Chris Conely and Albert Wilson involved in the pass game. If Maclin isn’t 100%, the Patriots are going to game plan around tight end Travis Kelce with double teams.
Therefore, if the Chiefs are going to score and keep up with Brady and company, Conely and Wilson will have to have big days. The play calling has to be more aggressive especially on third down. If the Chiefs can get points from their defense and special teams like they did against the Texans, that would be huge.
Patriots:
The Patriots offensive line has to protect Tom Brady and give him time to throw in the pocket. When throwing with a clean pocket since 2007, Brady has a 70.3 completion percentage, 8.10 yards per attempt, 222 touchdowns, 47 interceptions, and a 110.1 passer rating.
When the pressure gets to Brady, he is worse than average, completing just 47.2 percent of his passes and just a 69.6 passer rating.
Bottom Line:
The Patriots are hobbling and the Chiefs have all the momentum. It’s been said all week that the Kansas City is the worst matchup for the Patriots on paper and that is the truth.
The Chiefs have the deepest roster of any team playing this weekend on the defensive side of the ball, and I have a hard time believing that the Pats line will be able to hold up.
Kansas City has 47 sacks this season, the fourth most in the league, and Brady has been sacked 38 times this season.
But let’s take a look at the Pats track record in the playoffs since 2001: nine conference championship game apperances, six Super Bowl apperances, and four Super Bowl victories in 14 years.
Belichick-Brady in the playoffs at home will be too much to overcome for Kansas City. I think this game comes down to the fourth quarter, and Brady will make enough plays to pull out the victory and get his team one step closer to defending their Super Bowl title.
Prediction: Patriots-24 Chiefs-17
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