The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have gotten better since their season ended. The Los Angeles Dodgers and their massive payroll have not. Whoever said that players and championships could be bought hasn’t paid attention to what has transpired at Chavez Ravine in recent years. The club with the deepest pockets in the game has lost in the NLCS and has had back-to-back NLDS exits the past three seasons. In fact, it would not be outrageous to suggest the Dodgers will miss the playoffs in 2016.
FanGraphs.com is projecting that the Dodgers go 90-72. Honestly, though, that may even be too kind. It all has to factor in to the starting pitching. We all know what Clayton Kershaw is capable of. His resume speaks for itself. He’ll bring it in 2016 just like he always does. The depth, or lack there of, after Kershaw, is quite alarming.
One might ask about their new add, Japanese star Kenta Maeda. Well, what about him? There’s no denying his credentials during his eight seasons as a pitcher for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. He went 97-67 with a 2.39 ERA and 1,233 strikeouts. The good news for the Dodgers is the contract is incentive based. It’s for 8 years, $25 million. Although, according to the Associated Press, Maeda could make $81.2 million in performance bonuses. So, during his contract, Maeda could earn $106.2 million. It’s a team friendly contract. That’s the good news.
The not-so-good news is the question of how Maeda will adapt to MLB life. He is the latest of highly touted Japanese hurlers over the years. In the majors, a starter works every fifth day. In Japan, it’s every seventh day. One may recall Daisuke Matsuzaka, who signed a six-year, $52 million contract with the Red Sox. While Dice-K did enjoy a World Series title in 2007 and Top 4 Cy Young finish in 2008, he was never durable. His effectiveness slid and has since gone back to Japan.
More recent examples have included Yu Darvish of the Rangers and Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees. Let’s not deny the talent and capabilities of Darvish. He was second to Max Scherzer for the A.L. Cy Young race in 2013 and has certainly posted praise worthy numbers. The problem is he missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery and an elbow injury helped him miss a portion of 2014. Tanaka, like Darvish, has been productive, when he’s pitched. He’s had previous trouble with a bone spur in his pitching elbow. Tanaka has not had Tommy John surgery, but did have a procedure done on his elbow back in October. He’s missed parts of 2014 and 2015 while being on the shelf.
The concern should not be over Maeda’s talent. He very well could be an asset when he does pitch. The concern should be over the frequency that he is on the mound. Despite that much of his contract is incentive driven, the Dodgers don’t have much to lose, but what if he does go down like the other Japanese pitchers before him? That leaves Kershaw and not a ton of depth after that.
L.A. had the chance to resign Greinke, who opted out of his contract with the team after three years. Not only did he decline to return, he chose to sign with the division rival DBacks for six years, $206 million. Kershaw and Greinke were a power punch in Dodger Stadium, with the latter leading all of baseball with a 1.66 ERA in 2015. Arizona also snagged Shelby Miller from the Braves in a blockbuster December trade. The Dodgers were reportedly one of the team’s in pursuit of Miller. Now instead of having him, they get to face him in their own division along with their former co-ace.
That’s not all. It is an even year, and baseball fans know the Giants have had a thing for even years this decade. Even though the Dodgers went after Johnny Cueto, the 2015 World Series champion with the Royals spurned Chavez Ravine in favor of its bitter rival up north on a 6-year, $130 million deal. Despite previous connections to possibly getting David Price via trade or free agency, the former Cy Young lefty cashed in with Boston for $217 million over seven years.
So, besides getting Maeda, who has his risks, they also signed Scott Kazmir, who could certainly be a nice complementary piece in the middle of the staff. The Dodgers also were supposed to sign Hisashi Iwakuma, but after learning of his physical, backed out of the agreement and Iwakuma has since returned to the Mariners.
Let’s make something perfectly clear: The Dodgers in 2016 will be far from the worst team. They certainly will not finish last in the N.L. West, but expectations are high for a team with that much money to spend and they didn’t do much at the height of free agency and trading. Maybe FanGraphs is right and they will win 90 games, possibly even more. Still, considering who they got, did not get and who their rivals did get, there is a serious threat to this team winning a fourth straight division crown.
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