With the first half of the 2015-16 NHL season in the books, it’s time to start handing out the hardware. The LWOS hockey department has come together to give you our picks for the major NHL awards, starting will a full breakdown of the Hart followed by the Calder and the staff’s picks for the rest of the awards. Today we kick things off with the most prestigious award in the NHL’s trophy case, the Hart.
NHL Mid-Season Awards: The Hart Trophy
The Hart Memorial Trophy, given to “the player judged most valuable to his team,” has been a point of consternation for pundits for more than a few years now. While some see the award as a proxy for the NHL’s “best player” award, others choose to take the intention of the award literally, casting their vote for who they deem to be the player who made the biggest impact on his club.
For last season’s winner, Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price, both arguments were valid, as Price posted a historically dominant season and it’s hard to think of what the Canadiens would have been without him (though their play over the last few weeks since his injury may be an indication). This season there are a number of deserving candidates, yet the choice is nearly as clear cut when you break them down.
The Nominess
Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago Blackhawks
The 27-year-old Kane has been nothing short of sublime this season for the Blackhawks, with a 26-game point streak highlighting a year which began with accusations and distractions but may be heading towards an MVP award. His 38 assists and 63 points are currently first in the NHL, as are his 13 power play goals and 22 power play points. He has been, simply put, the single most dominant offensive player in the league so far through his first 45 games.
The argument against Kane is naturally the team on which he plays, and whether the old “most valuable to his team” adage applies. Part of the reason Chicago is sitting comfortably in 2nd in the Central Division is their very favorable +23 goal differential (4th in the NHL), and while Kane certainly plays a role in that on the offensive side of things (and has been a positive possession player with a positive Corsi relative to his teammates of 2.1), much of the heavy lifting has been done on the defensive side of things, most notably by goalie Corey Crawford, who has slowly dragged himself into the elite goalie category with outstanding numbers this season (2.20 GAA and .927 SV%). Does his presence lessen Kane’s shot at the Hart?
Tyler Seguin, C, and Jamie Benn, LW, Dallas Stars
It’s hard not to put these two together, as they are without question the most dynamic duo in the NHL today. They are the engine that drives the best offensive team in the NHL and have combined for a whopping 49 goals and 104 points already, in just 44 games. Benn’s 25 goals are tied with Kane, and one back of league leader Alex Ovechkin, while his 53 points are also good for second, 10 off the pace set by Kane.
Seguin for his part has produced nearly identical numbers, posting one less goal (24) and one less point (51) in about 35 seconds less average ice time per game. Both have been deadly on the power play as well, with 15 (Benn) and 14 (Seguin) power play points.
However, neither one of them is likely to take home the Hart at the end of the year, and it’s equally difficult to choose one over the other here. There isn’t much intrigue about the issue either, just the simple fact that as outstanding and dynamic as both have been, they are going to split the vote right down the middle.
Erik Karlsson, D, Ottawa Senators
Karlsson is without question the best offensive defenseman in the NHL, and perhaps of his generation. At 25 years old, the Swede is having a career year, posting 1.05 points per game (45 points in 43 games) while again leading all NHL defensemen in scoring (and 4th overall, behind the aforementioned trio). He’s poised to be the first blueliner to hit the 80-point mark since legendary countryman Nicklas Lidstrom did so in 2006-07.
Despite playing on one of the worst teams defensively in the NHL (the Senators have allowed 127 goals against, the 3rd highest mark), Karlsson has continued to defy his detractors, posting very positive possession numbers. Despite Ottawa posting a 28th 47.1 CF% as a team at five-on-five, Karlsson is 52.1% personally, with an astounding 7.4 Corsi relative to his teammates. It’s hard to be bad defensively when you always have the puck. With two Norris trophies already in his pocket, is a Hart next?
Braden Holtby, G, Washington Capitals
While many people thought the Capitals would be a strong contender in the Eastern Conference, particularly in the goal scoring department, few could have foreseen they would be the best defensive team in the NHL at the half-way mark. While Ovechkin has been his usual “greatest sniper of his generation” self, and the depth has been very good as well, much of that dominance falls on the shoulders of Holtby, who is not only contesting Price for the title of best goaltender in the world, but may actually be ahead in that battle at this point.
Of goalies who have played at least half of their team’s games, Holtby’s .932 SV% and 1.93 GAA rank first, while his 27 wins also top the NHL. However, the same question which might hamper Kane’s chances also puts a dent in Holtby’s candidacy, namely quantifying his impact on a team full of outstanding players. There is, however, no doubt Holtby’s career year has catapulted the Capitals to lofty heights, first overall in the league with 67 points through 42 games, and perhaps the best chance they’ve ever had to capture a Stanley Cup. Finally having an elite goaltender between the pipes is what has made the Capitals the choice du jour as potential league champions.
And the Winner Is….
Erik Karlsson. A defenseman hasn’t taken home the Hart since Chris Pronger won it back in 2000, and you’d have to go back to the days of Bobby Orr in the 1970’s to find another one before him. However, what Karlsson has done through half a season easily makes him the runaway winner.
While his numbers alone would be enough to give Karlsson strong consideration for the award, it’s the impact he’s made on the Senators, thereby supporting the other main criterion for the award, which really gives him the ultimate boost here.
The Senators are, by many measurements, a pretty bad team. On offense, they have just four players on pace to crack the 20-goal plateau, with just one (forward Mike Hoffman) who is on pace to net 30+. Defensively, they’ve been porous, allowing 127 goals against, tied for 28th in the NHL. Their special teams are well below league average, their goal differential is a worrisome -12, and their possession numbers, as noted before, are putrid. Yet somehow they are still within one point of a wildcard spot in the East.
That somehow is Karlsson, who has taken a team which by all accounts should be shooting for the league basement and single-handedly dragged them into contention. While the other contenders, Kane, Seguin, Benn, Holtby… heck, you could throw a few other names in there such Ovechkin or Florida Panthers goalie Roberto Luongo, all have superstar support beside them, Karlsson has done the heavy lifting almost entirely on his own.
Karlsson has a nine-point cushion over the next highest scorer on the Senators (Hoffman and Bobby Ryan), despite having what is, by his standards, a down season in the goal-scoring department. Stunningly, after Karlsson’s 45 points, the next highest scorer among Ottawa defensemen is Codi Ceci, with just eight points.
When the best offensive defenseman of his generation is having the best season of his career and carrying his team along with him on his back, picking him as the mid-season Hart Trophy winner is a pretty easy exercise.
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