It seems all but certain that #31 is headed into retirement for the New York Mets thanks to Mike Piazza being officially immortalized in Cooperstown. Now that the Baseball Hall of Fame has opened its doors to the legendary catcher, the Mets are ready to award him the highest honor a franchise can offer. However, this article isn’t meant to be about Mike Piazza, I invite you to look forward to the next player that the Mets organization will consider bestowing this honor to. That player, is none other than Captain America, David Wright.
When it is all said and done, it is fair to say that David Wright will have spent his entire career in Queens. He was drafted by the Mets in 2001, spent parts of four seasons in the organization’s minor league system, and has been with the big club for 12 years now. Additionally, Wright is under contract for five more seasons, which would bring him to age 38 and probably the appropriate time for him to retire. Now when Wright does reach the end of his career, he will likely hold multiple Mets franchise records, however, he will at best be a borderline candidate to be inducted to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The question I am posing here is that will his body of work be enough for Wright to gain entry into Cooperstown? With that being said, will the organization go through with retiring the number of arguably their greatest position player?
To date, David Wright has been no slouch in garnering awards. As recently as an appearance in 2013, Wright has been named to seven all-star teams, won two Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers, and finished top ten in MVP Voting three times. Additionally, David Wright is the all-time franchise leader in at-bats, runs scored, hits, doubles, runs batted in, base on balls, and is second on the list in games played and home runs. The Virginia native has put together a reputable body of work across 12 MLB seasons with a .298 career batting average, 235 home runs, and 956 runs batted in. Now it could be reasonable to say that at this pace, Wright projects out nicely moving into the twilight of his career, but unfortunately a diagnosis of Spinal Stenosis in 2015 will severely limit Wright’s abilities going forward. With the proper medical advice and preventative treatment, the 32 year old could salvage what remains of his career, but it is hard to see Wright as anything but a shell of what he once was.
Using the excellent tools that our friends at BaseballReference.com provide us with, we can accurately gauge where Wright stands right now in terms of Hall of Fame candidacy. If you want further details on how each of these projection systems work, I invite you to follow the links and read up, but for the sake of this article I will spare the long and technical explanations.
| Gray Ink | Batting – 88 (270), Average HOFer ≈ 144 |
| Hall of Fame Monitor | Batting – 74 (268), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 |
| Hall of Fame Standards | Batting – 36 (210), Average HOFer ≈ 50 |
| JAWS | Third Base (22nd), 50.1 career WAR/40.0 7yr-peak WAR/45.1 JAWS Average HOF 3B (out of 13) = 67.4 career WAR/42.7 7yr-peak WAR/55.0 JAWS |
Now as you can see David is a bit behind the averages here. According to Gray Ink, the Hall of Fame Monitor, the Hall of Fame Standards, and JAWS projections, David Wright would not be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow. Fortunate enough for him, he does have the time to change this. Baseball Reference also offers similarities scores and the good news is that David Wright compares to George Brett and Dave Winfield through his age 32 season, with both of these players currently enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Similar Batters through 32
View Similar Player Links in Pop-up
Compare Stats to Similars
- Scott Rolen (930)
- Reggie Smith (889)
- Bernie Williams (888)
- Aramis Ramirez (888)
- Dave Winfield (888) *
- Bobby Abreu (886)
- Travis Fryman (884)
- Garret Anderson (883)
- George Brett (882) *
- Shawn Green (881)
* – Signifies Hall of Famer
The biggest indicator of a potential induction for David Wright is the fate of Scott Rolen once he reaches the ballot. Rolen is the most similar player to Wright through age 32 according to Baseball Reference’s similarity scores. Through his first 12 years, Rolen posted an eerily similar .283 career batting average, with 261 home runs and 1012 runs batted in. Rolen also posted a 55.0 WAR, comparable to Wright’s 50.1. Finishing his career in Cincinatti, Rolen was able to remain productive for a short period of time, but faded out over his last two seasons in the big leagues. It is reasonable to project Wright on a similar path even with his evident back problems. Scott Rolen is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, but certainly finds himself in good standing when his eligibility kicks in, 2017.
Can the Mets retire David Wright’s number without acceptance into the Hall of Fame? It’s a no brainer. We’re talking about one of the few players to spend their entire, not to mention lengthy career in Flushing. A player who embodied the mindset and spirit of the franchise, while upholding it’s values on the field and in the community. In addition to being the all-time leader in a number of categories, David Wright has demonstrated his on and off the field leadership as Team Captain for three seasons to date. His latest accomplishment, bringing a National League Pennant back to New York in 2015 only solidifies his legacy even more and it would be a travesty for the Mets to fail to retire #5 with or without the Hall of Fame.
