The half-way mark in the NHL season is usually a time when the strengths and weaknesses of a club have been fully exposed, giving not only team executives but also fans time to ruminate on where their franchise needs to improve in the frantic final half of the season.
The LWOS hockey department has done the same, taking a division-by-division snapshot of where each team is at at the mid-way point of the 2015-16 season, and where they are heading as a result.
Today, it’s the Central Division brought to you by Charlie Clarke (@LWOScharlieocc) and Cristiano Simonetta (@CMS_74_).
The NHL At the Half: Central Division
1. DALLAS STARS (29-10-4), 62 POINTS, +34 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Surprises:
The Stars came into this season with one of the highest-paid goaltending tandems in the league, with Antti Niemi’s $4.5 million contract joining Kari Lehtonen’s $5.9 million. There was concern that such a pair would not be the answer Dallas has been looking for in net. However, although hardly spectacular (particularly in the last couple of weeks), Niemi and Lehtonen routinely give their team a chance to win, and can inspire much more confidence in their team than any of Lehtonen, Jhonas Enroth, or Anders Lindback did a year ago. The team’s save percentage is ranked only 17th in the NHL, but that is a huge jump from 29th in 2014-15, and the effects have been evident.
Disappointments:
Just like it was at the quarter mark, it’s bordering on nitpicky to look for major flaws with the Dallas Stars. But if we have to pick one, it would seem that age and injuries are continuing to catch up with Ales Hemsky. He started the season strong, producing well and earning himself a spot on the second line at times. However, he cooled off quickly, and after scoring six points in his first four games, he’s had just seven in the 33 games he’s played since. Now, he’ll miss more time with an injury after blocking a shot last week. The Stars would probably like to see Hemsky regain some of his scoring ability once he slots back into the team.
Outlook:
There are no signs of the Stars slowing down anytime soon. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, possibly the hottest duo in the NHL, have a combined 103 points between them, and rank second and third respectively in league scoring. Young defenseman John Klingberg has been another incredible boon to the Stars offensive firepower, second among blueliners with 38 points. If Lehtonen and Niemi can continue to be good enough – not necessarily great – Dallas will roll on.
Prediction:
The Stars will easily make the playoffs, very likely as the top seed in the Central Division. How they perform in the postseason will be another matter entirely though, as the talent is very much present but the experience may not be – which may be why Patrick Sharp is there.
2. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (26-13-4), 56 POINTS, +19 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Surprises:
Just when you expect the Blackhawks to falter and dip down in the Central Division standings, they somehow find a way to rack up points and remind the NHL as to why they’ve won three Stanley Cups in the past six seasons. After trading away a pair of terrific scorers in Brandon Saad and Sharp, the hockey world was determined to believe that the reign of dominance in the Windy City was reaching its end. Doubts about consistency, future salary cap issues as well as Corey Crawford’s legitimacy as an elite netminder poured in at the beginning of the season, but the critics forgot one thing: We’re talking about the Chicago Blackhawks.
That statement was never more relevant than in Chicago’s comeback win over of the Anaheim Ducks in late November. After being stifled offensively for most of the contest, the Blackhawks scored two goals in 74 seconds (one from Marian Hossa, the other from Duncan Keith) to tie the game late in the third period. Artem Anisimov, one of the returns in the Saad deal, scored 1:53 into overtime to secure the second point in the standings in a game in which Chicago should have ended up with none. A never-say-die attitude is just one of the elements to the Blackhawks style that has made them so tough to kill over the past half decade or so, and it doesn’t show signs of slowing down anytime soon. Since that game against the Ducks on November 27th, Chicago is 13-5-2. It may have taken them a bit to regain their team identity, but the Blackhawks are undaunted by the obstacles that await them as they are destined to defend their crown of supremacy once again.
Disappointments:
If you’ve been following the Blackhawks for the past couple of seasons, you already know the one player on the roster that would be considered a disappointment and that’s Bryan Bickell. The 29-year-old forward was rewarded with four-year, $16 million deal after an outstanding performance in the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but has done little to nothing since. This year has been no exception to the recent trend as Bickell was waived and sent down to the AHL on a conditioning stint to play for the Rockford IceHogs just a few months ago. He’s back with the Hawks now, but you can’t quite notice him. That’s not just a reference to his vapid scoring touch (zero goals and two assists in 22 games) but also his ice-time.
Bickell played 5:14, eight shifts, against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday. On Tuesday, also against the Penguins, his TOI total read 5:39. He is not trusted by the coaching staff and he clearly lacks confidence in his skill set when hoping to create opportunities. Bashing Bickell is not something fans in Chicago like doing, seeing as he is one of the reasons as to why Saad and Sharp were dealt for not the flashiest of packages, but they’re all hoping that #29 gets back on track.
Outlook:
The Blackhawks usually have their fair share of slip-ups in January, but there’s plenty of reasons to remain optimistic going down the road. Captain Jonathan Toews hasn’t had the most flattering season from a statistical standpoint, potting only 26 points in 42 games thus far, but he’s no stranger to heating up down the stretch. The second line of NHL point-leader Patrick Kane, Calder Trophy front-runner Artemi Panarin and Anisimov has been providing the majority of the offense so far, but imagine if Hossa, Toews and even Teuvo Teravainen start producing on a consistent level.
Prediction:
The defensive core consisting of Keith, Brent Seabrook and Nicklas Hjalmarsson that limits shots and odd-man rushes each and every night out should maintain that exceptional degree of stability on the back-end to bring the Blackhawks back to the postseason with ease. However, the questions lie between the crease in which Crawford has to answer come April. It doesn’t matter if they win the Central or crawl into the playoffs in the last wildcard spot, they’ve proven that all they have to do is qualify for the postseason. Whatever their seeding may be, we all know Kane, Panarin, Toews and Hossa will get their chances because it looks as if no one can contain them when it matters most.
3. ST. LOUIS BLUES (23-14-7), 53 POINTS, -2 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Surprises:
While St. Louis Blues fans may not consider this a surprise, Kevin Shattenkirk has been playing phenomenal this season. After re-aggravating a lower-body injury in the earlier parts of the year, the 26-year-old has been a menace on the scoresheet, already with 25 points in 34 games. Fifteen of his points (4G, 11A) have come from the man-advantage. He currently serves as the right defenseman on the Blues top PP unit and drives the puck through the neutral zone to establish the cycle. He is a terrific facilitator on the power play as well as even-strength, making plays that some NHL defenseman would never think to execute.
While he stands at 6’0″ and weighs over 200 pounds, the New Rochelle, NY native uses his strong hockey IQ to knock the opposition off the puck and spark the transition for his team. His CF % (Corsi For percentage in all situations) has never been higher as it currently sits at 55.8%. Having possession of the puck is when he is at his best; he makes responsible decisions quickly while maintaining poise and exuding confidence. With Shattenkirk’s four-year, $17 million deal set to expire at the end of the 2016-2017 season, his name has been brought up in several trade rumors since the offseason, much to the chagrin of the Blues faithful. What’s not a surprise is that an offensive defenseman that can log top-four minutes like Shattenkirk has drawn some interest from the rest of the league.
Disappointments:
Ever since Ken Hitchcock came along to St. Louis in the 2011-2012 campaign, he has had no problem motivating his club in the regular season. From mid-April on, however, the “killer instinct” that the Blackhawks have boasted for years has been lacking for the Blues, resulting in three first-round exits in the last three years. GM Doug Armstrong has focused on keeping a foot on the throats of opponents when trying to put away games, but the message has fallen on deaf ears lately as the Blues have blown a lead of two-plus goals in four of the last nine games.
Are the Blues mentally fatigued as a group? Are Hitch’s days in St. Louis numbered? As easy as some fans may make it seem, there’s not one specific factor or player that can answer those questions for better or for worse. A trade for Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Drouin won’t instantly transform this team into a Stanley Cup contender. There has to be a sense of accountability in the locker room and the front office if there’s going to be any progress. The main difference between the Blues and every other team that has found success in the playoffs is that they don’t live up to the hype that surrounds them at the end of the regular season. They don’t score that game-deciding goal and let simple defensive miscues turn into scoring chances against; no amount of excuses can explain why the Blues can’t take that next step.
That may be the most frustrating part about it.
Outlook:
The Blues have the talent up-front with players like Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen and Vladimir Tarasenko, but fail to manufacture goals at key moments during games (#91 excluded). Robby Fabbri has been a reliable addition to an injury-depleted roster and has fared well in his first couple of months in the NHL. Jaden Schwartz will return after the All-Star break and Patrik Berglund returned from offseason shoulder surgery last week so the health of the team is clearly in a better state than it was two months ago. Fellow rookie Colton Parayko has gone from top prospect to overnight sensation, while Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester have improved aspects of their game from last year. Jake Allen has assumed the role of starting netminder over Brian Elliott (and rightfully so), but a true evaluation of his talent will come in the playoffs, like the rest of his team.
Prediction:
No human being can predict what lies in store for the Blues. The best that can be said is that if they start to get goal-scoring from the top three forward groupings combined with sound goaltending, Hitchcock can finally silence the uncertainty that has rained down on his club since he took over. Although, if the Blues revert to their old ways of failing to convert scoring chances and demonstrate an absence of composure and discipline that leads to an early exit in the playoffs, there is going to be major changes in St. Louis. Is it too late to clone Tarasenko?
4. MINNESOTA WILD (21-11-8), 50 POINTS, +12 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Surprises:
Outside of Zach Parise, the Minnesota Wild do not necessarily have a difference-maker up front that can be relied on continually, resulting in a decent chunk of the responsibility lying on the defense when they are hoping to close out games. So far this season, Mike Yeo’s group of blueliners have performed splendidly when the offense runs a bit cold. It’s not just Ryan Suter (who has 27 points in 40 games while playing upwards of 30 minutes a night), but several members of the Wild defense have bought in to the schemes implemented by the coaching staff and are committed to follow through with them.
Marco Scandella still has plenty of time to develop into an upper-echelon defenseman at 25 years old, but is dependable in almost every situation and looks like a veteran based on his body language when on the ice. There’s rarely a sense of nervousness when he’s controlling the puck; he’s smart with his outlets, utilizes the boards to spring his teammates and isn’t afraid to dish out a devastating bodycheck on his opponents. Puck-movers Matt Dumba and Jared Spurgeon have the capability to perform at a high level in the NHL and get a sense of peaking at the right time in games, resembling Suter in many facets. This may be the most underrated set of defenseman in the Central Division due to the fact that they have the ability to shut down top offensive units while playing simple from a fundamental standpoint.
Disappointments:
Jason Pominville gets a multitude of scoring chances throughout each game he plays in, it seems, but hasn’t quite found his scoring touch just yet. Through 40 contests this season, the 33-year-old forward has only racked up five goals with a shot percentage that sits at 5.0% (the lowest in his NHL career). Pominville has scored at least 20 goals in all but one season in which he plays 60 games or more, but will need to pick up the pace if he hopes to reach that mark this year. He’s as snakebitten as they come in Minnesota but the key for him is to stick to his game and not get frustrated.
It’s very clear that he has been squeezing his stick a bit too hard when he’s nearing a chance at the net, but the Repentigny, QC native just needs to trust the system and he will be rewarded for his efforts in the process. This may be his last season in his “prime,” so the sense of urgency will be growing every time Pominville ends up off the scoresheet.
Outlook:
There’s no reason to believe that there is trouble brewing in Minnesota. This is much different from the same point they were at a calendar year ago; no Mike Yeo tantrum at practice will be needed this time around. The Wild have become a team that manages the puck well and isn’t afraid of the top teams in the league and will battle along with them until the final buzzer.
Prediction:
The Wild will make it to the second round of the postseason again this year, the question is who will they knock out? Everything after that is up for grabs at this point; I still think that adding another piece on the third forward grouping could help solidify the offense which can sometime fizzle off.
5. NASHVILLE PREDATORS (19-15-7), 45 POINTS, -4 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Surprises:
Two games over .500 at the halfway point is not what exactly what Peter Laviolette and Co. envisioned after suffering a first-round exit at the hands of the eventual Stanley Cup champions, the Chicago Blackhawks. GM David Poile decided to make a splash as a result, acquiring Ryan Johansen from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Seth Jones. This trade was a direct statement from the Predators management that they would rather improve offensively than defensively.
Jones’ departure was made evident because the Predators believe in their abilities on the back-end with Roman Josi, Shea Weber and Ryan Ellis (don’t forget Mattias Ekholm, too). The Predators are very deep in that regard, but lack a pure goal-scorer aside from James Neal. Only three players on the roster currently have 10 or more goals, and one of them is Weber. There’s no secret that Laviolette loves to have the defense produce the offense, but eventually you’ll have to rely on your forwards to put the puck in the back of the net.
Disappointments:
If you told me that we would be talking about Pekka Rinne being a negative on the Predators roster this season, I wouldn’t have believed you. This is a goaltender who has stolen games for his team ever since he assumed the starting role, a definite MVP on the club. Since last year’s opening playoff series against the Blackhawks, the Finnish backstopper was shaky at best, succumbing to rebounds and losing his angles on shots (which had been Rinne’s bread and butter in the past).
He prides himself on being technically sound and sharp on his skates when challenging the shooters, but something seems different about him at age 33. He won over 40 games for the second time in his career last year and lost only 17 games in regulation; he’s four away from reaching that feat in only 35 appearances. His record stands at 16-13-6 with a save percentage of .906 and a .GAA of 2.48 (which ranks 22nd in the NHL). If Nashville wants to ascend in the Central Division standings, they’ll have to get more help from their goalie that has bailed them out countless times in the past.
Outlook:
Adding Johansen is clearly a plus in the top-six, but will the rest of the offense follow suit? Filip Forsberg, Mike Fisher and Mike Ribeiro are just a number of forwards who can elevate their games to bring the Preds to playoff prosperity while Weber and Josi lead the way defending the attack. Not many individuals would consider Nashville a significant threat in the Western Conference, but let’s not forget that they pushed Chicago to the brink without their captain and one of their top scorers for the majority of the series. If they are healthy throughout the regular season, they will open some eyes with how well they can play.
Prediction:
The Central Division, being as tight as it is with the new playoff format coming along with the realignment, is always tough to predict due to how much skill there is on every team. Nashville is no different as they are prone to falling into a shell in the conference quarterfinals like the St. Louis Blues. Will they finally break the spell and break through in the postseason to prove that they are for real? That’s very possible with this group of players blending together in a terrific coaching style that is presented by a proven winner in Peter Laviolette.
6. COLORADO AVALANCHE (21-18-3), 45 POINTS, +5 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Surprises:
The Avs power-play was atrocious last season, 29th in the entire NHL. This year, however, they’ve made some key changes, and currently hold the ninth most effective power-play in the league. Players like Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon have been lightning, particularly with a man advantage, with 11 and 13 power-play points respectively. Tyson Barrie has been great on the back end, also with 13 PPP.
Disappointments:
No player on the Colorado roster has been more disappointing than Nate Guenin. The 6’3” defenseman has not recorded a single point all year. Of course, he’s not expected to score, but for a player on the ice 13 minutes a night, he has not done much to benefit his team. He coughs up the puck more often than he takes it away, and has laid just 13 hits all season. He is just a third-pairing guy, but he should still be expected to contribute more.
Outlook:
The Avalanche are knocking on the door of the playoffs, but will need to step it up a level to get over the edge. Semyon Varlamov has been great in net, and gives his team an opportunity to compete with anyone. The big guns up front have to continue to score for the Avs to get into the playoffs in a tough division.
Prediction:
Colorado is a good team, but other teams in the Central are simply better. They will narrowly miss the playoffs, losing out on the last wildcard spot to another team in the division.
7. WINNIPEG JETS (19-19-3), 41 POINTS, -8 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Surprises:
It seems like Blake Wheeler is having a career year, and is finally starting to get some of the praise he deserves. 40 points in 41 games puts him eighth in the league in scoring. Playing with Bryan Little and Drew Stafford on the first line, as well as on the first power-play unit, Wheeler is showing he truly can compete with the best as an elite scoring threat. Many fans were disappointed this week when Dustin Byfuglien was selected to represent the Jets at the All Star Game instead of Wheeler, who may be more deserving this year.
Disappointments:
The Jets continue to be beleaguered by the same discipline issue they’ve had all season. They’re first in the NHL in penalty kill time by a wide margin, and their ability to kill those penalties is not good, effective only 77% of the time (26th in the league). Players like Dustin Byfuglien and Jacob Trouba certainly need to keep their emotions in check at times, as it has proved harmful to the team.
Outlook:
Although last in the Central Division, all is not lost for the Winnipeg Jets. They’re still only 4 points out of a playoff spot, which is not out of the realm of possibility by any means. However, they will have to start stringing wins together to make it there. If they can play a more disciplined game the rest of the year, it’s certainly possible they sneak in.
Prediction:
Whether they’ll stay in last is up for debate, but there more than likely will not be playoff hockey in Winnipeg this April. The Jets will miss the postseason.
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