The half-way mark in the NHL season is usually a time when the strengths and weaknesses of a club have been fully exposed, giving not only team executives but also fans time to ruminate on where their franchise needs to improve in the frantic final half of the season.
The LWOS hockey department has done the same, taking a division-by-division snapshot of where each team is at at the mid-way point of the 2015-16 season, and where they are heading as a result.
Today, it’s the Atlantic Division brought to you by Tyler Shea (@SuperSaiyanCP31), Nick Godin (@FlyingOrr), Alex Koutsoglias (@LWOSalexkou), and Griffin Schroeder (@gSchroedes16).
The NHL At the Half: Atlantic Division
1. Florida Panthers (25-12-4), 54 points, +26 Goal Differential
Surprises:
General Manager Dale Tallon has quietly built a budding contender in south Florida. He was hired in 2010 after being the Chicago Blackhawks GM from 2005-09 and in Florida tried out the same blueprint: Smart drafting combined with savvy moves on the free agent market and trade front. Enter Nick Bjugstad, Erik Gudbranson, Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad, Vincent Trocheck and Jonathan Huberdeau to name a few homegrown talents. By way of trade or free agency we have Jussi Jokinen, Brandon Pirri, Willie Mitchell, Roberto Luongo, and the man, myth and legend, Jaromir Jagr.
After netting 91 points last season, (15 loser points, I know, but still) the Panthers showed that they were a tough team to play against and not the kitties that were showing up at the top of draft boards a few years earlier. But, did we expect them to be riding an 11-game winning streak at any point? Did we expect soon-to-be 44-year-old Jagr to lead the team in scoring with 30 points and be on pace for a 30-goal season? How about leading the Atlantic Division over interstate rival Tampa Bay by 10 points? They have won eight games out of 12 within the division and 18 of 27 against the East, and have allowed the second-fewest goals up to this point with 88, two more than the Washington Capitals. It’s no coincidence that both teams have elite netminders.
Disappoinments:
Sunrise does have its downers amidst this upstart group. Dave Bolland, for one, is getting paid $5.5 million per season (second on the team) for the next three campaigns after this one, and has produced five points in 25 games. Putting this in perspective, newcomer Logan Shaw has four goals in 19 games. Bolland does bring that presence of a champion with him, but his on-ice performance just does not match the paycheck. Dealing with more injuries and healthy scratches with young players cracking the lineup, it just has not panned out for the 29-year-old.
Outlook:
Is this team for real? After a 14-12-4 start, they have sling-shotted themselves into a playoff contender. Luongo has been a saving grace all season long, posting unreal combined numbers: 1.88 GAA, and .934 SV%. The team has fired on average 28.3 shots per game (25th) while allowing 29.5 (15th). The Cats also hold 23rd place in terms of CF% in close games with a 47.98% mark. For a minimum 20 games played per each player, the Panthers have only four members of the team with a CF% over 50%. Compare that with a team a point behind them for 5th in the St. Louis Blues, where 18 players have a CF% over 50%. The Panthers do not possess the puck a lot and rely heavily on their goaltending. Sound familiar? In a division as unpredictable as the Atlantic, the remaining 42 games for the Panthers should be interesting, but look for head coach Gerard Gallant to continue to push his team.
Prediction:
The Panthers make the playoffs as a wild card. One has to believe Tampa Bay will eventually get it together and Montreal, especially with Carey Price back in net (whenever that happens), will make the division even tighter. The Red Wings are always there too. This division is just too hard to predict, but with @strombone1 in net and the Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr line running circles around the competition, they’ll make noise.
2. Detroit Red Wings (21-13-7), 49 Points, -4 Goal Differential
Surprises:
The best player on the team? Not Henrik Zetterberg. Not Pavel Datsyuk. Not Niklas Kronwall. Dylan Larkin has dethroned the trio. He has kept up his hot start to his NHL career, potting 14 goals and 27 points in 39 games. He is second in goals among rookies and third in points to Artemi Panarin, and leads the Wings in shots with 107 and a CF% of 51.09%. His speed and impact on every facet of the game has given new life to captain Zetterberg and he has made players around him better. The Wings haven’t had an electrifying teen make this sort of contribution since the days of #19.
An honorable mention as a surprise has to be Brendan Smith. With Kronwall slowing down and Jonathan Ericsson taking him down with him, Smith seems to have finally figured it out. He’s making the simple plays, not panicking, getting the puck up the ice, and getting rewarded for it. He now has three goals and 10 points, seven in his last nine.
Disappointments:
Pat Ferschweiler’s power play needs work. 18.1% with 23 goals scored ranks 22nd in the league, and with weapons like Mike Green, Kronwall, Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist, Zetterberg, Larkin, etc., it is completely unacceptable. Personnel (Green) was upgraded in the offseason to a unit that boasted the most power play goals scored in the league at 70 last season with the second-best percentage at 23.8%. The strategy is not working and must be fixed if the Wings want to make it past the first round. Darren Helm continues to struggle, posting nine points in 37 games while regularly getting time in the top six. Tomas Jurco has not found it either and has been scratched for a few games due to health, scoring three points in 18 games.
Outlook:
With healthy bodies coming back to the lineup in Drew Miller, Teemu Pulkkinen, and Kyle Quincey, the Wings should be poised to stay in competition for an Atlantic Division crown. They do face a tough test however, with 24 of the last 42 games on the road. It should test what the team is actually made of and challenge them to play without relying so heavily on Petr Mrazek to bail them out. The team is just above the 50 line in terms of CF% in close games, a stat they are accustomed to placing in the top five. The team has not found a knack for scoring “the next goal,” leading to 25 one-goal games. Should the boost come from Tatar or Nyquist breaking out or the power play getting a move on, the Wings would take it either way as they sit tied with Tampa Bay (wow) with 103 goals scored, good for 20th in the League.
Prediction:
The Wings will make the Stanley Cup Playoffs as a holder of one of the top three spots. With the resurgence of the Florida Panthers, the struggles of the Lightning, and the unpredictable behavior from Montreal and Boston, the end result after half of a schedule is hard to foresee. Maybe a trade is made at the deadline to boost one team’s chances, maybe an injury to a key star occurs. Either way, there is plenty of hockey left to play, but Jeff Blashill’s group will be in the dance by the time it is all said and done.
3. Montreal Canadiens (23-16-3), 49 Points, +16 Goal Differential.
Surprises:
The Canadiens started the 2015-16 season red hot, leading the NHL in just about every major statistic. They also had a franchise best 9-0-0 record and trailed for only 2:57 during those nine games. And then their first loss of the season, which was suffered versus the Vancouver Canucks, came and reality sunk in. After that loss, the Canadiens went 7-3-2 and was still on top of the league when the first major blow to the season occurred on November 22nd versus the New York Islanders, when Brendan Gallagher went down with a broken finger after blocking a Johnny Boychuk slap shot. Three days later goaltender Carey Price reinjured himself and has been sidelined ever since.
After those two major pillars of the team went down, and players like Alexei Emelin, Alex Semin, Torrey Mitchell, Devante Smith-Pelly were also injured, the Canadiens spiraled down the standings and just have not been the same team, including an alarming 3-11 record in December.
One bright spot in this dark period of their season is how well the rookies have stepped in to contribute when injuries arise. Daniel Carr, Sven Andrighetto, and Mike Condon have been spectacular in their debuts. Carr has led the way in rookie scoring for the Canadiens with five goals and two assists through 14 games, while Andrighetto has four goals and five points in 14 games as well. Charles Hudon and Michael McCarron have played two games apiece each but haven’t stuck with the team. Condon has a record of 11-9-3 with a GAA of 2.42 and a SV% .907.
Disappointments:
The biggest disappointment with the Canadiens this year is obviously the regression they have shown. Going from first in the league to just barely hanging onto 8th place in just a matter of one and a half months is a huge disappointment to say the least. Nobody was expecting them to have a perfect season or continue scoring over three goals a game, but to transform into the team we are seeing now on a nightly basis was completely unexpected.
Another disappointment this year has been Marc Bergevin. I wouldn’t go as far as saying he’s a bad GM or anything remotely like that, he’s still a great and creative guy for the team and deserves a ton of praise for building a great team in a little of amount of time. But in the past weeks, it seems as if he has been sitting on his hands and not making any trades to improve the team when it’s obviously needed. He did acquire another goalie to relieve some of the pressure off Condon and (the now traded) Dustin Tokarksi, which is smart, but he traded Zack Kassian in the process. We all know his story but after completing his mandatory rehabilitation sentence, it was expected that he would be given a chance to redeem himself. Instead he was traded before he could even report to the St. John’s IceCaps.
We don’t know the full story, and likely never will, but the fact that he wasn’t given a chance is disappointing. Kassian is the type of player that Montreal could have used in their lineup while dealing with injuries. He does have some offensive potential which could have been a boost to their lackluster goal scoring woes lately. He wasn’t going to be the sole solution but it could have helped slightly. Add in the fact that Montreal employs Rob Ramage, who has his own past with drinking, it seems odd that Kassian wasn’t given a shot. He’s currently with the Edmonton Oilers farm team, the Bakersfield Condors, and has put up one goal in two contests.
Outlook:
As of right now, this season isn’t looking fantastic as it did in the first two months. When Price is cleared to return, the team should start gaining some points again, but the goal drought is certainly concerning. The Canadiens will need to dig deep and fix this issue if they want to get back to playing hockey as well as they did in the beginning. It’s a team-wide problem and the goalies are doing all they can, but when the forwards and defense cannot score or build momentum after being scored upon, it’s problematic. They are currently 5-12-2 after being scored on first. They are also racking up losses where they are outshooting with nine, tied for 9th in the league. Basically it’s a long run of bad luck. They have had games where they completely dominate the opposing team but still manage to lose by two or more goals. The Canadiens are going to have to go back to basics and return to just playing hockey and hope that the goals return.
Prediction:
Prior to the season, the Canadiens were one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Price was looking like he would have a repeat of his Vezina-winning season and players like Pacioretty, P.K. Subban, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Fleischmann, Tomas Plekanec, among others were all looking on point. But when two big cogs of the seemingly well oiled machine went down, so did the Canadiens. Condon has played his heart out, but he’s still a rookie and has made mistakes. Players like Dale Weise, Fleischmann, Andrighetto, and Carr have all tried to match the production that the top six was producing before the injuries. Pacioretty has been stuck in a cold streak and has looked horrible. The team really needs to work harder if they want to become Cup favorites again, let alone just make the playoffs. Frankly the future isn’t looking very bright for Montreal the longer Carey Price’s spot in the net remains vacated.
4. Boston Bruins (20-14-4), 44 points, +13 Goal Differential
Surprises:
Although this is not necessarily a huge surprise, Bruins forward Loui Eriksson has been a massive asset to the Bruins offense – and it has only been on the incline since the trade in 2013. Eriksson has 14 goals and 20 assists for 34 points in just 38 games, and is projected to finish the season with 30 goals and 43 assists for 73 points in 82 games. For a team that has seen a lack of consistency in the offensive department for years, it is rather delightful to see the 30-year-old forward succeed.
Disappointments:
The Bruins biggest disappointment is something they can’t necessarily control. Despite that, the injury bug has been the Bruins biggest x-factor this season. The Bruins have seen injuries in players such as David Krejci, David Pastrnak, Chris Kelly, Zdeno Chara, and most recently Adam McQuaid. On top of the injuries, forward Brad Marchand was also suspended three games – which included the Winter Classic as well as a tough competition against the Washington Capitals. Things in the Atlantic Division may be a little different when the Bruins are 100% healthy, so I wouldn’t be calling them contenders to miss the post-season just yet.
Outlook:
In order for the Boston Bruins to be successful this season, they need to simply play their game, but at the same time, don’t raise expectations. Take it one game at a time, and strive to be a top team in the Atlantic Division. Leading the conference may be a difficult task, so toppling teams such as the Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators may be a more realistic goal.
Prediction:
The Bruins will get healthy, and go on to be a difficult team to beat in the Atlantic Division. They will be a playoff team, however the road to the playoffs will not be an easy one. They might finish 5th or 6th in the conference, and will look to make it past the first, and potentially second round of the playoffs.
5. Ottawa Senators (19-16-6), 44 points, -8 Goal Differential
Surprises:
Mike Hoffman – Simply put, Hoffman is having an extraordinary year. The 26-year-old Kitchener, Ontario, native has been undoubtedly the Ottawa Senators best forward halfway through the season. On pace for an outstanding 43 goals and 80 points, that would have him finish the year as a top-ten goal scorer in the league. Hoffman is averaging a substantial 18:23 minutes a night, and owns an 18sh%.
Erik Karlsson – Karlsson is a gift from the hockey gods, no surprise here. But what I do find surprising is he has somehow gotten better than he was the previous year, as he always seems to do. Playing huge minutes (28:27) and scoring 42 points, good for fourth best in the league, Erik Karlsson is yet again the reason why the Ottawa Senators are in contention to make the playoffs.
Disappointments
Alex Chiasson – Its official, Chiasson is simply not having a great year in the league. In fact, I don’t expect to see Chiasson play in the NHL much longer. It’s remarkable that he’s on pace for four goals and ten points while for some reason playing not insignificant minutes (14:09) for head coach Dave Cameron. He has been used in a shut-down role this year, starting an astonishing 70 percent of his zone starts in the defensive zone (which helps explain his dreadful point totals). He has well below average possession numbers (43.85 CF%) to go along with his lackluster point totals.
Jared Cowen – The former ninth overall pick in the 2009 NHL entry draft, Cowen has regressed in every single one of his NHL seasons, and this year is no different. Goalless in 32 games, Cowen is looking like nothing more than a bottom pairing defenceman. There is no sign of his development finally starting to go in the right direction, something that has to be worry fans. He also maintains a horrid 42.1 Corsi percentage.
Outlook:
The Ottawa Senators have simply not been as good as the standings depict. They allow the most shots against in the league (33.8), and have the third worst shots for (27.9). Senators also own the third worst penalty kill in the league (76.3%). All this combined is what results in 116 goals against, good for fifth worst. They have the second worst Corsi in the league, and are dead last in Fenwick. In other words, they clearly don’t have the puck as much as the opposition. All this is to say, I don’t think the Senators can sustain their success if they don’t find a way to fix these glaring problems.
Prediction:
I think Karlsson, a balanced attack and more good than bad performances by goalie Craig Anderson will keep the Senators in the playoff race, but ultimately they fall short. They frankly don’t play a very good brand of hockey, and it will cost them a playoff spot.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning (19-17-4), 42 Points, +3 Goal Differential
Surprises:
For one, in the midst of the whole Jonathan Drouin story, Jonathan Marchessault has really become a key player for the Lightning as bodies keep dropping due to injury. He has six goals and 11 points in 23 games, two more markers than Tyler Johnson and the same number of points in four less games.
Disappointments:
There are plenty of these for the defending Eastern Conference champions. They are 12 points back of first place to an interstate rival leading the division in the form of the Florida Panthers. The team has piled up 154 man-games lost due to injury, good for 4th in the league. Key players such as two-thirds of the memorable “triplets line,” Ondrej Palat (20 games) and Tyler Johnson (27 games), have missed significant time due to injury. In fact, only one piece of the line that lit the NHL on fire last season (74 goals and 200 points combined) has repeated their success – Nikita Kucherov. He is currently tied with Steven Stamkos for the team point lead with 30. Palat has eight points and Johnson 11 as mentioned, with injuries stunting the runs of these two electrifying players. The team as a whole has scored just 101 goals, good for 23rd in the league. For a team that led the circuit last season with 259 (yes, more than Dallas), it’s quite frustrating. Not all the disappointments have come on the ice, however. Stamkos doesn’t have a contract yet and has Leaf fans geeked about a liked tweet. Drouin has requested a trade. There is rumored tension between GM Steve Yzerman and head coach Jon Cooper. Compared to this point last season, Tampa has certainly seen better days.
Outlook:
Will health save the Lightning? With so much distraction around the franchise it may not be the case. The Stanley Cup Final hangover is not an excuse for this team to sit near the basement of the division they were expected to compete for. But, the bright side for the Lightning is that there are 42 games left and Ben Bishop is in the net (2.06 GAA, .924 SV%). For all the lack of scoring, the team has only allowed 98 goals, good for 7th best in the league. If the team can focus on what they can control, get contributions from all across the board, and more than anything stay healthy, they have a chance to get back into this thing.
Prediction:
The Bolts bounce back and make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The magic of the NHL today is that one is seemingly never out of the race with the parity at an all-time high. 42 games should be more than enough time for the Lightning to at least grab a wild card spot if not challenge for the top three spots in the division. Health will be an important factor, but if they start scoring like the 2014-15 edition of the club, anything can happen. Off-ice issues being mended could go a long way in helping the cause, too.
7. Toronto Maple Leafs (16-16-7), 39 Points, -1 Goal Differential
Surprises:
Bit player and first time all-star Leo Komarov busting out as the Leafs’ top scorer for the first three months of the season endeared “Uncle Leo” to fans as much as his coach, who recently declared him the most competitive guy in the Leafs organization. Nobody in blue and white plays the game harder than Komarov, and his first-line assignment has borne fruit by the bushel. Komarov’s stock has certainly risen both in Toronto, and around the league, and the trade offers are sure to pile up. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a trade, however, as the void he’ll leave will be hard to fill, both on the ice, and in the dressing room. One of the most popular players in the organization, Komarov’s impact on the team’s culture-shift is obvious.
Disappointments:
The Leafs’ lack of stability between the pipes has impacted their results more than any other factor, as head coach Mike Babcock has them buying in en masse to his highly-structured, detail-oriented approach. With twelve games lost by a score of four or more goals-against, goaltending has been a real sore spot at times. Nazem Kadri’s promotion to the top line has not produced the kind of offence neither Kadri nor Leafs brass had hoped for in the early going (he has, however, been catching fire lately). While he has become a much more reliable player, he’ll be hard-pressed to put the screws to the Leafs come contract negotiation time as he might be hoping to. A third and final item in the disappointment column applies solely to that contingent of Leaf fans hoping to hear Auston Matthews’ name called by Gm Lou Lamoriello come June. The Leafs are too good a team at this point for that to happen. Sorry.
Outlook:
With the highly-structured game Babcock has the Leafs playing, results are starting to come, despite an obvious lack of elite skill up front. Part-and-parcel with those positive results is a team-wide confidence that they can beat any team in the league on any given night. That confidence also helps them to bounce back in real-time if and when they find themselves behind the eight-ball. As the saying goes, the toughest opponent to beat is the one who doesn’t fear the loss, and where this team once had the most fragile psyche in pro sports, they now believe in themselves regardless of circumstance. Don’t look for any miracles, but the Leafs will end up winning more than they lose going forward.
Prediction:
Major deadline trades notwithstanding, the Leafs likely finish outside of the bottom five in the league with somewhere around 85-87 points on the season. If they are lucky, Alex Nylander is still on the board when they take to the podium, and the Leafs will add another highly-skilled, smart young prospect to a deepening pool.
Toronto won’t unload simply for the sake of it; any trading of “placeholder” pieces will be contingent upon the brightest of the NHL-ready prospects proving they are ready to make the leap. Even then, if the Marlies are poised to contend for a Calder Cup, the point may be moot. Most likely to depart: P.A. Parenteau, Michael Grabner, Roman Polak, and James Reimer.
8. Buffalo Sabres (15-21-4), 34 Points, -18 Goal Differential
Surprises:
Ryan O’Reilly – In his first season with the Buffalo Sabres, the 24-year-old centre is on pace to have a career year, with 16 goals and 34 points through 40 games. Production like this is even more appreciated by head coach, Dan Bylsma, considering he starts the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone. Logging heavy minutes (21:56), winning 58% of his faceoffs (sixth best in the league) and being a force on the power play (15 points), O’Reilly has become a true number-one centre for the Buffalo Sabres.
Rasmus Ristolainen – The search for a number-one defenseman looks to be over in Buffalo. The 6’4″ Finnish defenseman is in the midst of a breakout year, at the ripe age of 21 years old. Averaging 24:28 minutes a night, “Risto” is on pace for 14 goals and 53 points. A Norris Trophy could be on the horizon for young Ristolainen.
Disappointments:
Matt Moulson – 32-year-old Moulson is getting paid $6 million this year by the Sabres, and on his end, Moulson’s play has declined in essentially every statistic there is. Averaging a mere 13:58 minutes a night, almost five minutes less than his career average, Moulson is currently playing on Buffalo’s fourth line. On pace for eight goals and 25 points, Sabres management surely regrets the five year, $25 million contract they signed Moulson to in July of 2014.
Zemgus Girgensons – The former 14th overall pick in the 2012 NHL entry draft has not taken a step forward after last year’s productive campaign. The 22-year-old Latvian is playing big minutes, averaging 15:36 of ice time, while playing alongside Jack Eichel for the majority of the year. He has yet to take advantage of the top-six role offered to him. On pace for seven goals and 18 points, Girgensons has to find his game quickly if he wants to remain a part of the plan for a Buffalo Sabres team with no shortage of young, talented players.
Outlook:
The Buffalo Sabres are one of the lowest scoring teams (91 goals), owning the third worst shooting percentage (6%), and the fifth worst penalty kill (77.1%). Add all these things together and you get a Buffalo Sabres team who can’t put the puck in the net, and simply allow too many goals. Scoring a mere 2.25 goals per game won’t get you many points in the standings. The lone bright spot as a team has been the surprisingly decent goaltending they’ve gotten from duo Chad Johnson and Linus Ullmark. The team also takes the least amount of minor penalties in the league, which is always good when you have a horrid penalty kill.
Prediction:
As it stands todays, the Buffalo Sabres have a .425 point percentage, good for second worst in the league behind the Columbus Blue Jackets. I don’t think the eventual return of Robin Lehner will benefit the team all too much, as goaltending has been far from the issue in Buffalo. I expect them to remain a bottom five team in the league, and contend for yet another lottery pick come the NHL entry draft.
Stay tuned for the next NHL at the Half report for the Central Division, coming up tomorrow morning.
Main Photo:
