The final FBS game of the year, the National Championship game, Clemson vs. Alabama, is coming up, and our experts John Bava, Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, and Mike Loveall are on hand to preview the Tigers vs. the Crimson Tide. First a look at the final bowl season standings for our experts. Congrats to Yesh for his fantastic bowl season record, as he joins John with his regular season title for year #1. Next year we promise to improve!
#1 Clemson vs. #2 Alabama (Monday 1/11/16 8:30 P.M. EST in Glendale, AZ)
Line: Alabama by 6.5
John:
This is the matchup that not only most of us were expecting, I think it was the one we were hoping to see when the College Football Playoff pairings were set. These were arguably the two best teams in the nation in 2015 and they’re now set to face off in Glendale for the second title of the Playoff era.
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has an interesting connection to his looming opponent. Swinney attended Alabama and actually won a national title in 1992 while playing as a wide receiver for the Crimson Tide. Now he faces his alma mater with a chance to bring the Tigers their first championship since 1981.
But in order to do so, he’ll have to get a win against perhaps the greatest college coach of this generation in Nick Saban. What he’s done to revive the Alabama football program has likely exceeded even the most ardent Tide fan’s expectations. Bama has won three titles since Saban took over as head coach and are in line for their fourth in seven seasons. The only other school to realize that much success in the AP poll era is Notre Dame, who won four titles between 1943 and 1949.
For Clemson to come out victorious, Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson will have to turn in another versatile performance like he did in their 37-17 semifinal victory over Oklahoma. Watson threw for 187 yards and ran for another 145 while accounting for a touchdown each through the air and on the ground. Another potential x-factor in this game is Tiger running back Wayne Gallman. He doesn’t get as much attention as Watson, but was the ACC’s second leading rusher in the regular season and Clemson’s ability to continue to pound the ball on the ground against Alabama’s top-ranked rush defense could prove crucial.
Jacob Coker has been much maligned at times this season. But the Tide quarterback came up big against Michigan State in the semifinals. Coker outplayed Spartan signal caller Connor Cook, throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-0 rout. Clemson will likely try to stuff Heisman winning running back Derrick Henry, so the FSU transfer’s ability to distribute the ball through the air will be important once again.
Ultimately, Alabama’s ability to not only slow down opposing run games but shut it down altogether will lead to another title triumph for the Crimson Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Clemson 21
Steen:
Both teams are deserving finalists, with stacked rosters featuring both talent and great chemistry, and excellent coaching. The Tigers and Tide handled quality opponents with relative ease in the playoff semifinals, surviving tough tests already thanks to strong second half performances, thus they have already demonstrated an ability to finish games.
Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide should be focused and on point for this game, given they are used to being in this game as an expectation. ON OFFENSE Heisman winner Derrick Henry is a bruising runner who can churn up yards, and QB Jacob Coker played his best game of the season against Michigan State, not to mention Oregon State transfer Richard Mullaney at WR with a shot to get a national title as their #1 option at WR.
On defense new Georgia coach Kirby Smart’s final Alabama roster features the best front seven in college football, that shuts down running games and mauls offensive lines. Alabama isn’t a flashy team, but you know they are going to play a tough, focused game, and to beat them you have to be aggressive and on point, something Michigan State was not (and Ole Miss was earlier in the season, as the Rebels handed them their only loss).
Clemson are the underdogs, but they haven’t lost yet, and have a flashy offense, an exciting young dual-threat QB, and a chippy defense that shuts down passing games and generates turnovers. Dabo Swinney is the player’s “positive” coach that the grizzled Saban is not, and yet both of their styles have led their teams to considerable glory already.
This game should be close until the end, but the style of offense that Clemson runs with a perimeter running game and speedy spread is the “worst” offense vs. defense matchup for the Tide. The only teams to test Alabama notably, Ole Miss, twice, and the Cam Newton and Nick Marshall/Tre Mason Auburn teams, ran the type of system that Clemson runs with similar pieces. I’m going to go against the spread and pick Clemson to finish undefeated with their first national title in decades, their win over Oklahoma was perhaps a win over the #2 team already.
Prediction: Clemson 31, Alabama 24
Yesh:
College football is a game of matchups. Matchup disparity let Alabama whip Michigan State. They took care of the Spartans’ weaknesses and exploited them perfectly. Unfortunately for Alabama, they don’t have such a matchup to exploit against Clemson.
Jacob Coker played the game of his life in the Cotton Bowl, mostly because the defensive line of Michigan State couldn’t get any pressure and the secondary couldn’t keep up with Alabama’s receivers. Clemson’s D-line might not be much better than Michigan State’s, but the secondary is definitely faster. The long ball won’t be open the way it was.
Clemson, meanwhile, has more talent at receiver and on the edge than Michigan State did. And, presumably, Dabo won’t foolishly try to establish the run like Dantonio did. Running on the edge works against Alabama. Trying to find ground between the tackles just doesn’t work.
Alabama will score some points. The offensive line is too good to not move the ball. Clemson will also score some points. They have too much speed not to. This will be a close game. It will come down to whether Deshaun Watson can make plays with his legs or whether Alabama can keep him contained all game.
Prediction: Clemson 28, Alabama 24
Mike:
Both Alabama and Clemson come into the Championship game riding momentum. Alabama played a nearly flawless game in their absolute destruction of Michigan State. Clemson is undefeated, with wins of Notre Dame, Florida State, and a convincing and decisive win over Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. I think the key to this game comes down to two things. First, the maturity and decision making of DeShaun Watson. Watson, still just a sophomore, will be tested by the Tide defensive line all night. He will have opportunities to run, but his decisions as to when to run and when to stay in the pocket in order to attack downfield will be key.
The second key area is the line of scrimmage. Clemson must prevent Alabama’s front four from maintaining consistent pressure and containing Watson. Conversely, the Tigers’ defensive line must keep the Tide rushing attack in check to have a shot at this game. Additionally, all the pressure is on Clemson; they’re the undefeated team, the team with “the chip on shoulder”, and the team that doesn’t have this experience.
Dabo Swinney is certainly a motivator, but Nick Saban will have his team ready to handle the big stage. Clemson must be perfect to win. But it’s hard to be perfect against this Alabama team. Alabama stakes claim to yet another national title.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Clemson 24
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