Since Utah first busted the BCS in 2004, there have been two types of “mid-majors” competing in major bowl games. There have been the types like Utah, Boise State, and TCU, who the world basically viewed as power conference caliber teams competing in smaller conferences. Then there have been the upstarts. These are the Hawaii and Northern Illinois types. They were expected to be beaten by the bigger, more physical schools.
Of course, Houston is currently in a conference that was not viewed as a “mid-major” during the BCS era. The Big East, at least since the mid-2000s, was always viewed as the bottom of the power conferences. Some of their champions were viewed as legit teams, though. At other times, however, especially towards the end of the BCS era, the Big East champion was expected to be blown out by their opponent. Of course, UConn and UCF really changed that perspective.
Still, the American Athletic Conference and the Houston Cougars are back in the position that the Big East was in a few years ago. They are on the outside looking in, but they will be given access if they earn it (okay, the Big East got automatic access every year). The AAC is 1-6 in bowls so far and is in for a long offseason. The conference earned a lot of respect this year, with impressive seasons by Navy, Temple, Memphis, and Houston. But bowl season has brought them down to earth. Any talk of the AAC being back near the ranks of the power conferences has been quickly snuffed out.
Houston has one final chance to change all of that. They get to face a Top 10 team and a college football blue-blood. Florida State will be the measuring stick by how the Houston program in particular and the entire AAC in general is judged. It’s a good challenge and a good matchup.
When looking at the game itself, Florida State is the fastest, most physical, and overall best defense that Houston will have faced all year. UConn really shut down this powerful Houston attack, and Florida State’s defense is similar, but better. Of course, star quarterback Greg Ward Jr. was missing in that game. How much of a difference would he have made? Maybe we’ll find out based on how he plays here.
On the other side of the ball, Houston is giving up a lot of strength in the trenches. Florida State’s offensive line is just stronger and Houston has never seen a running back as dynamic as Dalvin Cook. If they don’t scheme against him correctly and if the Cougars can’t make tackles in space, Cook could easily run all over this game.
Houston has had an incredible season under first-year coach Tom Herman. They absolutely played well above their talent level all year long. They are a ball-hawking defense that bends but doesn’t break and they win by forcing turnovers. If they can force mistakes and turnovers from the Seminoles, then Houston can definitely win this game. If not, though, and if Cook can get loose, the Cougars will be in for a very long day.
Florida State has the advantage, but the challenge will be getting the players to want it more. If Florida State shows up even the tiniest bit flat, then Houston will be there to take full advantage.
