I’m not one for outlandish predictions. Sport has a nasty habit of turning round and biting you when you try to be too clever – it’s why bookies have such nice cars, even if Ray Winstone does gamble responsibly. But for once, as we approach New Year, spirit of the season and all that, I’ll share mine. England will not only comfortably defeat South Africa in the current series but will travel to India next winter as the team to beat in all formats of world cricket.
Durban, although a happy hunting ground for the English in recent years, showed exactly how the guard is changing. There is a grit about this England, a resilience and a depth that has not been much in evidence before, perhaps ever. That England were not only able to get themselves out of trouble after being put in and quickly reduced to 49 for 3 in difficult batting conditions but also move into a match winning position with a bowling attack shorn of their most celebrated weapon speaks volumes about where they are as a side both now and looking to the future.
The signs were first there in early summer and, ironically for a nation with such a turbulent relationship with the shorter forms of the game, it was the World Cup in the spring which proved to be the catalyst for change. England’s abject performance in that tournament set in motion the chain of events that led to the installation of Trevor Bayliss, Paul Farbrace and Andrew Strauss at the helm of English cricket, and with them has come at last the sense of direction and purpose across all the formats that has so long been needed.
Such cause for optimism is down to two main factors. Firstly, England are blessed with a very fine group of players. Nothing new there, of course – the concept of a ‘golden generation’ is one of the more tired clichés trotted out whenever anyone talks about what usually turns out to be an underachieving team – but this time it feels genuinely different. A
fter so many years of hand-wringing the England selectors have finally grasped that successful Test players do not necessarily make successful limited overs players, and the policy of having essentially separate sides with specialist players in each has seen both white ball teams dramatically improve to the point where England must be seen as genuine contenders in the forthcoming World T20.
Alastair Cook, dropped pre-Bayliss from the one-day side, has emphatically rediscovered his Test form and had one of his best years with the bat. Stuart Broad, willing workhorse across all formats in recent years, has been the pick of England’s Test bowlers having not played limited overs cricket since the World Cup. Adil Rashid, having made his Test debut in the UAE, was not selected for the current tour to allow him instead to hone his skills – and his confidence – in the Big Bash. And in the Durban Test Nick Compton and James Taylor – two talented players treated peremptorily by the old regime – shared what proved to be the crucial partnership of the match.
Which leads to that elusive second factor, the one perhaps most vital of all, hardest to win but easiest to lose – confidence. Without it the greatest of players will fail. With it, as Leicester City have recently been proving elsewhere, a team can become so much more than the sum of its parts.
One particular innings in the last World Cup sticks in the memory as an illustration of the difference between then and now. Watching Ian Bell against Scotland – Ian Bell, one of England’s all-time highest run-scorers, a man who went into the competition as England’s form batsman on the back of two big hundreds in the warm-up games – nudging and scraping his way to 54 off 85 balls with only two boundaries, summed up the lack of confidence that hamstrung the whole side when faced with the pressure of that particular tournament.
Starting with the limited overs series against New Zealand, with a new ‘go out, play your shots, no fear’ culture – one in which, ironically, a certain Kevin Pietersen would thrive – England started to build the momentum that they carried into the Test arena and on through an outstanding Ashes series against an Australian side who had arrived brim full of expectation and self-belief of their own.
England subsequently made a much better fist of playing in the UAE than Australia, too, and the eventual 2-0 loss to Pakistan did not really reflect what was in reality a much tighter series than the final result suggested. The English came home disappointed, yes, but not disheartened, confidence dented but not, as in 2011-12 when the side was last on top of the world, destroyed.
In sport every rising star is balanced by one falling, of course, and like Australia post-2007 South Africa are, whatever the final result of this series turns out to be, a team on the wane. The trauma of their recent drubbing in India runs deep, but the accompanying chorus of complaints about Indian pitches hide truths that run far deeper.
Hashim Amla has struggled to fill the substantial boots of Graeme Smith as captain and with only one score of more than fifty to his name over the calendar year his batting has suffered drastically as a result. The lack of candidates to replace Smith at the top of the order has been apparent too, with middle order batsman Stiaan van Zyl currently promoted, so far unsuccessfully, to fill the breach.
Jacques Kallis’s retirement has left South Africa without a quality all-rounder and, crucially, fourth seamer, another hole in the balance of the side that was exposed in Durban. And with the burden being placed on AB de Villiers looking to be too much for even him to cope with the team look like they have a very painful period of transition ahead.
Australia, cock-a-hoop once more on the back of a summer of shooting West Indian goldfish in a barrel, will, as always, face a considerably sterner challenge when going abroad. As was highlighted over the past Ashes summer, on flat, true pitches Australian batsmen make hay, but against the seaming or spinning ball any flaws in technique are ruthlessly laid bare. The upcoming year may well prove to be a good one for Australia, with trips to New Zealand and South Africa in the pipeline, but they, unlike England, will look towards their next trip to the sub-continent with particular trepidation.
Like all England supporters I have pessimism hard-wired into my cricket DNA. South Africa may come roaring back and take the next three Tests. And yes, of course England aren’t anything like the finished article yet — the opener’s slot is still to be properly settled and the UAE exposed their lack of a spinner able to properly exploit sub-continental conditions. But of all the international sides they look very much like they’ll be the ones to beat in 2016.
