The Citrus Bowl is more likely to get hyped for the coaches and the turnarounds they have given their respective schools, than for any of the on-field particulars on offense or defense.
While both Florida and Michigan have had extraordinary upswings this season and are winning with great defense, it is unavoidable to begin the discussion of the game without looking at Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain.
The Citrus Bowl; The Defenses Will Rule The Day
Last year, Florida finished in third place in the SEC East with a 4-4 record and went 7-5 overall, including a narrow bowl win over East Carolina. Then-head coach Will Muschamp was notified in mid-November that he would not return for the 2015 season. Enter Jim McElwain who had just completed his third season guiding Colorado State, having gone 22-16 during that time. In just one season, the Gators won the SEC East and went 10-3 overall, losing only one regular season conference game to LSU, a non-conference game to Florida State and the SEC title game to Alabama.
Ironically, while Muschamp had been known as a defensive guru, it was the defense under McElwain that carried the season for the Gators. Florida’s defense is 6th in the country in giving up only 271 yards per game to opponents. Opponents are scoring only 17 points per game and the D has also caused 25 turnovers. The challenge for Florida is that the offense has been mostly incapable of capitalizing on the turnovers. The Gators are 116th in the nation in yards per game at 319. In their last two games of the season, Florida averaged less than two yards per run on first down. Running back Kelvin Taylor had a good enough season with just under 1,000 yards rushing, but he was easily shut down by the two best defenses the team faced all season, in Florida State and Alabama. Florida was in 3rd down and long way too often, which forced them to rely on the throwing of Treon Harris way too much. Harris became the starter when Will Grier was suspended for one full calendar year after failing a PED test. He has a meager 52% completion rate and has thrown for 500 fewer yards with 53 more attempts than Grier had prior to the suspension. The Gators chances for a win are greatly diminished if they cannot establish a strong running game right away or at least get a touchdown from the defense or special teams.
Michigan’s instant turnaround was equally eye opening. The Wolverines were a combined 12-13 overall and 6-10 in conference the last two seasons under Brady Hoke. Enter former Michigan QB Jim Harbaugh and there was immediately a change in mentality, toughness and focus. The Wolverines went 9-3 overall this season and 6-2 in conference. Losses to Michigan State and Ohio State put Harbaugh’s team in the best non-New Year’s bowl game.
Michigan, too, has been winning with defense. The Wolverines are 4th in the country in yards allowed per game and have forced 10 turnovers this season. They have managed to mostly contain even good quarterbacks. Michigan State’s Connor Cook was only 18 of 39 passing against Michigan. Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett threw for only 113 yards on 9/15 passing against the Wolverines. Barrett did run for 139 yards against Michigan and so that is something to keep an eye on when it comes to Florida’s Harris. Still, Harbaugh’s defense has forged a new fortitude in Ann Arbor.
With no sustainable running game to speak of, Michigan’s offense is not going to light up the scoreboard either, but quarterback Jake Rudock is at least efficient if not exciting. He has thrown for at least 250 yards in four consecutive games and the wolverines convert in the red zone at a 94% clip, so as long as he can maintain his consistency and avoid the 123 yard throwing game he had against UNLV, he will give Michigan enough of an offense. Look for him to utilize wide receiver Jehu Chesson early. Once the Michigan coaching staff figured out they did not have a feasible rushing attack with the talent available and they let Rudock go to the air more during that four game stretch, Chesson rewarded them with eight touchdowns.
While the Citrus Bowl is not likely to have the scoreboards exploding like so many other bowl games, it is going to give us a real look at two coaches that have put an instant imprint on their programs and turned them around faster than is realistically normal in most instances. There is enough talent on both sidelines to keep the game close and interesting and enough showmanship and theatrics on both sidelines to keep everyone entertained, with Michigan being the pick here to pull off a low scoring, late win.
