The exciting crop of New Year’s Six bowls are upon us, including the two College Football playoff semifinals, as the bowl season begins to wind down with a bang. A shorthanded but undefeated Clemson team takes on an Oklahoma team with something to prove in Miami, while SEC behemoth Alabama takes on the Big 10 Champion Michigan State in Dallas.
In the four other top tier bowls, FSU, the program with the fewest losses over the last three seasons, takes on upset minded AAC champion Houston in Atlanta, Midwest powerhouses will collide in Phoenix as Notre Dame faces Ohio State, PAC-12 champion Stanford faces cinderella story Iowa in the Rose Bowl, and Ole Miss will take on Oklahoma State in New Orleans in a game featuring high octane offense.
Our experts John Bava, Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, and Mike Loveall are on hand with their previews and predictions for the games, as thus far everyone is over .500 in the bowl game standings outright.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: #18 Houston (12-1) vs. #9 Florida State (10-2) (Thursday 12/31/2015 12:00 P.M. EST in Atlanta, GA) Line: Florida State by 7
John:
Florida State might have put together the quietest two-loss campaign in the nation this year. Their only losses came on a blocked field goal against Georgia Tech that was returned for a touchdown and to top-ranked Clemson. They were actually tied with the Tigers midway through the fourth quarter as well before eventually falling 23-13.
Houston emerged out of a competitive AAC as league champions and finished as the highest ranked Group of 5 school in the CFP rankings. That earned them a berth in a New Year’s Six bowl. The success the Cougar program has had under first-year head coach Tom Herman appears sustainable as they recently signed him to a lucrative extension. Herman had been one of the hottest candidates for the myriad open positions among the Power Five schools.
If the Noles can contain Houston’s vaunted run game that has combined for 43 touchdowns (third best in FBS), they certainly have a chance to finish with their fourth straight season of 11 or more wins under head coach Jimbo Fisher.
Prediction: Florida State 31, Houston 20
Steen:
Houston is 6-1 against bowl eligible teams this year though their margin of victory was considerably closer in those games. This is a well coached, motivated team that has earned the right to be in this game. With a solid defense and dynamic playmaking QB on offense in Greg Ward they pose a threat to ACC powerhouse Florida State.
FSU has one of the best defenses in the country that will work to shut down Ward and company, they surrender fewer than three touchdowns per game and both the pass rush and secondary are full of NFL caliber talent. On offense Sean Maguire is the starter at QB now, and should be going into next season as well, where he will be a Senior. Maguire is 5-1 as a starter now, with his only loss coming by 10 points on the road against #1 Clemson. The Seminoles smothered Florida and are 5-1 against bowl elgible teams this season, with RB Dalvin Cook, one of the best five running backs in the nation, providing a vast majority of their offense, even while struggling with injuries at times this year.
With Cook being able to get healthy, Maguire having more opportunity to get in reps with the first team, and the Seminoles overall able to get motivated and focused on this game, I think they will pull it out, even though Houston will give the Noles a stiff test. This was a down year for FSU but they still did reasonably well and appear primed for a run next season.
Prediction: Florida State 27, Houston 24
Yesh:
Houston is a drastically-improved team this year under coach Tom Herman. They were solid and talented last year. This year, they have played amazing football. Their offensive woes against UConn should be concerning as Florida State has the defensive talent to replicate what the Huskies did.
On the defensive side of the ball, Houston wins games by forcing mistakes and taking advantage of turnovers. Florida State is too talented and discipline to give up the ball too much. Unless Houston can find a way to slow down Dalvin Cook, they will be in trouble in this game.
Prediction: Florida State 28, Houston 24
Mike:
Continuing a bowl season trend of significant roster and/or coaching changes even with teams in big bowls, Florida State will be without Everett Golson for the Fiesta Bowl. With Sean Maguire fully starting at quarterback, expect All-American Dalvin Cook to shoulder even more of the load than he normally does for Seminoles. And if Greg Ward, Jr. doesn’t remind you of Deshaun Watson – at least a little – then you should go back and watch the Houston-Navy game. I think Houston has a real shot to win this; coach Tom Herman has committed to this team and Ward, Jr. should be healthy coming out of the long break. But against Florida State’s stout defense, a one-man show might not be enough. If Maguire can make some second-level throws and Cook stays healthy, Florida State outlasts Houston.
Prediction: Florida State 31, Houston 28
Capital One Orange Bowl: #4 Oklahoma (11-1) vs. #1 Clemson (13-0) (Thursday 12/31/2015 4:00 P.M. EST in Miami, FL) Line: Oklahoma by 4
John:
Clemson may have finished the season at the top of the CFP selection committee’s rankings, but that isn’t affording them any love from the oddsmakers. The fourth-ranked Sooners come into this game as the favorite and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them a 63.1 percent chance to win this game.
Maybe it’s the fact Oklahoma’s margin of victory in their eight Big 12 wins was 31 points. Or it could be a perception that somehow the dark art of “Clemsoning” might rear its ugly head on such a massive stage. Either way, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney might have some extra weaponry to get his players motivated for this game. That said, the Sooners might have their own form of motivation in wanting to erase the memories of the 40-6 blowout loss they took at the hands of Clemson in last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl.
Ultimately, this game could come down to which team can force more mistakes out of the opposing quarterbacks. Both OU’s Baker Mayfield and Clemson’s Deshaun Watson have combined for 16 interceptions on the year even though Mayfield has just five. And the Sooners have a talented tandem of defensive backs in Zack Sanchez and Jordan Thomas who’ve combined for 11 picks including two that were returned for touchdowns.
Sooners continue to be this year’s version of Ohio State and make their way to the title game as the four-seed.
Prediction: Oklahoma 30, Clemson 28
Steen:
OU is more talented, and more physical than the typical spread offense Big 12 team, with Samaje Perine in the backfield, and Eric Striker on defense, this is a team that can match up with Clemson in the trenches. They still air it out and have plenty of highlight worthy plays though, with Baker Mayfield slinging passes and spreading the field. The Sooners abysmally choked against Texas but dominated every team they played except TCU from them on and seemed to hunker down for nine wins over bowl eligible teams.
Clemson has DeShaun Watson as a difference maker, a solid pass rush, and a good secondary. They earned their #1 seed and did well to go undefeated this year with seven wins over bowl elgible teams, including wins over FSU, UNC, and Notre Dame. However the suspension of talented young WR Deon Cain hurts them given how good the OU secondary is, and Oklahoma is on too much of a roll to get slowed down this time. This should probably be the National Championship game, and the Sooners will win it.
Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Clemson 35
Yesh:
Baker Mayfield is definitely the more elusive and dynamic quarterback in this game. Overall, though, Deshaun Watson and his offense have a better matchup against this Oklahoma defense. The last time Oklahoma faced a physical front seven, they were manhandled by Texas. Clemson will use that game tape to figure out exactly how to stop this Oklahoma attack.
Prediction: Clemson 27, Oklahoma 21
Mike:
Oklahoma is possibly the hottest team in the nation behind a rejuvenated running game, a shored-up defense, and Baker Mayfield’s quarterback play. In Oklahoma’s loss to Texas and overtime win against Tennessee, they lost to mobile quarterbacks that weren’t nearly as good as Clemson’s Deshaun Watson. Clemson’s defense was decent this season, but had to rely on the offense for wins against Florida State and North Carolina.
I expect this one to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, but I think Clemson has a slight mental edge with a tougher regular season, a lose coach in Dabo Sweeney, and a chip on their shoulder being underdogs as the top ranked team in the nation.
Prediction: Clemson 38, Oklahoma 34
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: #3 Michigan State (12-1) vs. #2 Alabama (12-1) (Thursday 12/31/2015 8:00 P.M. EST in Arlington, TX) Line: Alabama by 10
John:
Nick Saban is highly familiar with the Michigan State program, having been the Spartans head coach from 1995-99. He’s faced his former school just once while in charge at Alabama in the 2011 Citrus Bowl. The Crimson Tide rolled to a 49-7 blowout victory and it marked the last time Bama won fewer than 11 games in a given season.
Though MSU is once again a fairly stiff underdog, things should be much different in Arlington on Thursday. The Big Ten’s top programs of which State now belongs match up much better with the SEC than they did even just a few years ago. That was apparent last year when Ohio State knocked off Alabama en route to the national title. Sparty will be looking to do the same.
Both teams’ defenses are equipped to neutralize each other’s strengths on the other side of the ball. MSU is ranked in the top ten nationally defending the run and will need to be at their best to slow down Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. Bama allows just 184.2 passing yards per game and will likely be facing the first quarterback taken in the 2016 NFL Draft in Connor Cook.
Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio continues to be the most underrated college football head coach, in my opinion. He has Michigan State as close as they’ve been to their first national title in 49 years. However, I think the Tide has too much firepower on defense and ultimately wash away the sting of last year’s loss to the Big Ten in the CFP.
Prediction: Alabama 21, Michigan State 17
Steen:
Alabama is favored by too much in this game if you look at the resume of these two teams. MSU has 9 bowl eligible wins, and beat Oregon at home, Ohio State and Michigan on the road, and Iowa in the Big 10 title. The only mark against their record a last second loss to Nebraska. Bama has 10 bowl eligible wins, a home loss to Ole Miss, and lack a marquee win, unless you consider LSU or Wisconsin as such. Looking at the rosters and the results, this game should be relatively even.
The Tide have a fantastic, physical defense, with a solid front seven, and they should be able to generate a push and get stops against the Spartan run game. With that said, RB Derrick Henry functions as their primary offense, and Michigan State has the defensive talent to bottle him up, and force Jake Coker to make plays with a pass rush bearing down on him, something I don’t think he has in him.
A healthy Connor Cook should be able to generate enough variety with the MSU offense to pull out a close win, though this is a toss-up game.
Prediction: Michigan State 24, Alabama 21
Yesh:
Alabama eats teams like Michigan State alive. The Spartans are big, hit hard, and control the line of scrimmage. Alabama does the exact same things, only better. Michigan State will need to throw in some wrinkles on offense and to control the line of scrimmage on defense to have any chance here. Once you let Derrick Henry get a head of steam, he is impossible to stop.
That being said, Michigan State thrives off being the underdog. They will want this game more than Alabama (barely), which is something that rarely happens to the Tide. Michigan State also has the best passer that Alabama has seen all year, and we saw several offenses move the ball well through the air against this defense this year. Michigan State won’t be making plays down the field all game, but the short passing game will be open and Connor Cook will take advantage if he can stay calm under pressure.
Prediction: Michigan State 24, Alabama 21
Mike:
Probably the most questions of any of the big bowl games comes in the Cotton Bowl. Is Connor Cook’s shoulder finally healthy? Will his short absence at the end of the season affect the timing with his receivers? Clearly his performance against Iowa wasn’t his best performance. And for Alabama, will they be mentally prepared? Can they shake all of the media questions about last year’s performance and the talk of a weakened SEC schedule get into their heads? I think the key here will be Jake Coker’s improved play.
Alabama should be able to effectively establish their running game, as Michigan State’s defense is good but not great against the rush. Multiple signs point towards the Tide. Alabama has the experience of the playoffs while Michigan State has the pressure of a dream season. While Cook is very athletic, he doesn’t have the mobility that traditionally stresses Saban defenses. If Coker can consistently connect on play-action and the Tide keep from turning the ball over, Alabama could win this game comfortably.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Michigan State 24
Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl: #8 Notre Dame (10-2) vs. #7 Ohio State (11-1) (Friday 1/1/2016 1:00 P.M. EST in Glendale, AZ) Line: Ohio State by 6.5
John:
OSU head coach Urban Meyer has connections to both these schools. He began his coaching career as a graduate assistant for the Buckeyes and spent five years as Notre Dame’s wide receivers coach under Lou Holtz and Bob Davie. And in a somewhat ironic connection with his coaching counterpart in this game, Brian Kelly was head coach at Meyer’s alma mater Cincinnati before accepting the ND job in 2010.
Friday’s matchup in Glendale, AZ (which strangely kicks off at 11 AM local time) pits two national brands that have established themselves as dominant Midwest programs once again. Both have played for national titles in recent years and were in contention this season before late season losses ended their hopes. And they’re expected to remain competitive in subsequent seasons with the two having top five recruiting classes lined up for 2016.
It will be interesting to see if the few prominent off-field incidents that have involved OSU players turn out to be distractions heading into this game. All-Big Ten defensive tackle Adolphus Washington was arrested in early December for solicitation and will not play. Running back Ezekiel Elliott was involved in a car accident on Sunday and cited for multiple traffic violations, even though it was announced he will play on Friday.
Notre Dame has done a great job at dealing with injuries to key players on offense and as a result have discovered immensely talented young players in quarterback DeShone Kizer and running back C.J. Prosise. Still, the Irish will be facing perhaps one of the most complete defensive units they’ve seen all year despite OSU being a bit shorthanded. Expect sophomore linebacker Raekwon McMillan to be a disruptive force for the Buckeye defense.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 24
Steen:
Given all of the injuries they have suffered, Notre Dame have overperformed this year and Brian Kelly deserves a lot of credit for getting them this far. The Fighting Irish went 4-2 down the stretch against bowl eligible teams as they played a relatively tough schedule this year. The defense is hard nosed and has a chip on its shoulder, while the offense finds a way to score, led by WR Will Fuller.
Ohio State could just not show up for this game, but I don’t expect that to happen, even with some suspensions, the Buckeyes recovered from the Michigan State loss by destroying a good Michigan team, and they should have something to prove here against a legacy rival, and a recruiting rival. These teams battle for the same talent pool, and I look for Urban Meyer’s team to send a message in this one, that they are still the kings of the midwest, and their weak schedule didn’t mean they fluked their way into this position.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 24
Yesh:
Ohio State is the best team in the country and they are angry with themselves for missing out on a Playoff chance. This team blew it and they know it. They’re going to come out and prove it in this final game.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Notre Dame 10
Mike:
For an 11-1 team, there certainly is a lot of pessimism surrounding Ohio State. Consistent underperformance in the early part of the season, late season disciplinary issues, and a late season loss to Michigan State that, coupled with a weak schedule, left the Buckeyes without a chance to defend their Championship. But you just cannot overlook the talent on that team.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is a team that looks tired. They’ve suffered some key injuries this season and they’ve had to fight hard to overcome that. They’ve got two close loses to Top Ten teams this season (Clemson and Stanford by four total points). Sometimes the bowl practice break allows a tired team to heal, think Michigan State last season. But Notre Dame is physically, mentally and emotionally worn out after this season. Ohio State finally puts all the pieces together on the heels of their dominating Michigan win.
Prediction: Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 17
Rose Bowl Game by Northwestern Mutual: #6 Stanford (11-2) vs. #5 Iowa (11-1) (Friday 1/1/2016 5:00 P.M. EST in Pasadena, CA) Line: Stanford by 6
John:
This year’s “Granddaddy of ‘Em All” pits the two teams who likely came closest to making the College Football Playoff without actually getting in. Iowa nearly knocked off Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship and would have done so if not for the Spartans putting together an historic 20-play touchdown drive. Stanford’s lone Pac-12 loss was a 38-36 nail-biter to Oregon which would’ve went to overtime if not for a failed two-point conversion late in the game. And let’s not even talk about that season-opening loss to Northwestern which in the end wasn’t as bad a loss as initially thought.
The Hawkeyes got very little love from anyone outside of Iowa City all year. Yet they kept winning games and ascending up the rankings. Head coach Kirk Ferentz had been under fire in recent years due to the program’s continued underachievement but in year 17 of his tenure, everything just seemed to come together. Iowa’s offense isn’t going to post the sexiest numbers, but they rarely beat themselves, ranking in the top ten in turnover margin.
Under fifth-year head coach David Shaw, Stanford football continues reach unprecedented heights in program history. The Cardinal had been to only three Rose Bowls between 1970-2011. They’ve appeared in three more since including Friday’s looming showdown against Iowa. Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffery will be looking to add to his absurd total of 3,496 all-purpose yards while senior quarterback Kevin Hogan hopes to end his college career with a bang.
Prediction: Stanford 27, Iowa 20
Steen:
Stanford finished the season strong after a shaky start, as Kevin Hogan and Christian McCaffrey combined to earn them wins over Cal, Notre Dame, and USC in consecutive fashion to reach the Rose Bowl. The Cardinal are physical on defense, and can play smashmouth football, or put up points on the score board depending on the rhythm of the game they are in.
Iowa played a weak schedule with just a couple of ranked wins, but they acquitted themselves well by narrowly losing the Big 10 title game to a very good Michigan State team. QB C.J. Beathard, DB Nigel King, and RB C.J. Daniels are legit talents, and they play like a team that maximizes their ability and gets turnovers. With that said, the talent gap is notable between these squads, and Stanford can play Iowa’s style of football, but with better speed. McCaffrey should be a difference maker as the Cardinal win an in-state bowl game.
Prediction: Stanford 35, Iowa 21
Yesh:
Iowa is a team that is really very difficult to pin down this season. You think they look bad, but when push comes to shove they always play really well. They were much closer to Michigan State than anyone expected and the same should be true in this matchup. Stanford is just a tiny bit better across the board. This will be a low-scoring, grinding battle.
Prediction: Stanford 13, Iowa 10
Mike:
Circle this game as the most exciting bowl game for the fundamentalist college football fan base. Iowa, the surprise team of the season, is three points from being in the Playoffs. Stanford, the PAC 12 Champion, is the only conference champion not in the Playoffs. The hype around this game will be Stanford All-American Christian McCaffrey, but the real story will be the Stanford defense. The Cardinal defense has given up 29.5 point per game over the last four games, including 36 to Notre Dame, the offense most similar to what Iowa runs.
For Iowa, the hype will center around their stout defense, but their chances to win revolve around quarterback C.J. Beathard’s ability to put together sustained drives and scoring in the red zone. Iowa’s red zone efficiency will determine this game: 66% TD conversion rate or higher and the Hawkeyes take this one. As much as my gut tells me this will be another Iowa bowl disaster, my head tells me that Iowa’s defense schemes against McCaffrey and Beathard outplays Hogan for the biggest win in a generation for the Hawkeyes.
Prediction: Iowa 31, Stanford 30
Allstate Sugar Bowl: #16 Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. #12 Ole Miss (9-3) (Friday 1/1/2016 8:30 P.M. EST in New Orleans, LA) Line: Ole Miss by 7
John:
This year’s slate of New Year’s Six games concludes Friday night in the Big Easy with matchup between two of the nation’s more prolific quarterbacks.
Ole Miss’ Chad Kelly, the nephew of legendary Buffalo Bills quarterback Jim Kelly, led the SEC with 3,740 passing yards while throwing 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also added ten rushing touchdowns. On the other side of the ball is Mason Rudolph. The sophomore signal caller threw for 3,591 yards, good enough for the second best total in the Big 12.
The Rebels finished as arguably the second-best team in the SEC. Yes, they lost early in the year to eventual East Division champs Florida and even dropped a non-conference game to Memphis, but they won four of their last five conference games with their only loss coming by just one point and in fairly bizarre fashion to Arkansas. Their vaunted defensive front will be short-handed, though, with star lineman Robert Nkemdiche suspended.
The Cowboys got off to a 10-0 start but dropped their final two games of the season to Baylor and eventual CFP semifinalist and Bedlam rival Oklahoma. In those two losses, their defense gave up an average of 612 total yards per game. They rank 92nd nationally in defending the pass overall, something Kelly and company will certainly look to exploit.
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Oklahoma State 31
Steen:
Oklahoma State struggled in their final two games and needs to avoid malaise in this Sugar Bowl, but if they do that and get their defense together enough to allow the offensive juggernaut they have to do work, they can win this game and beat an SEC team in SEC country.
The Ole Miss Rebels got embarrassed last year in Atlanta by TCU, a team that plays a similar style as Oklahoma State from the same conference. With that said the Rebels have been either very good with their landshark defense and high scoring offense this year, or really bad, failing to show up. I don’t trust Hugh Freeze to win this hard to predict game, and I’ll go with OK State to grab a win.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 49, Ole Miss 38
Yesh:
I don’t know how motivated Ole Miss will be in this game, but Oklahoma State needs a good showing to prove all of their detractors wrong. They will come out strong and prove that they belong, but Ole Miss’ superior talent will probably come through in the end. This game will be tight, though.
Prediction: Ole Miss 35, Oklahoma State 31
Mike:
After Ole Miss’ complete disaster of a bowl last year, I was determined to pick against them whoever they were slotted against. And then they drew Oklahoma State. The biggest impact on this game will be mental states. Hugh Freeze is probably tired about hearing about bowl failures and the Rebels’ inability to get to the elite level with so much talent. Mike Gundy has to manage his team’s disappointment after a 10-2 start yielded to two straight losses, including a hurt Baylor team and a blowout to their Boomer Sooner rivals in the last game of the regular season.
I think the scheme and alignment match-ups really benefit Ole Miss, although the absence of possibly both Nkemdiche brothers could allow Mason Rudolph a little more time in the pocket. Ole Miss exorcises the demons of last year’s nightmare bowl game.
Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Oklahoma State 30
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