Billy Wagner’s stellar career lasted sixteen seasons, including stints with the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Atlanta Braves. Wagner burst onto the scene in full as a reliever with the Houston Astros in 1996 and never looked back. In terms of peripheral stats, Wagner amassed 422 saves and a career 2.31 ERA to go along with a 0.998 WHIP. Wagner was a seven time All-Star and appeared on two MVP ballots.
This is Wagner’s first year of eligibility, and although it’s generally difficult for closers to make the Hall of Fame, Wagner had several dominate years during which he stacked up as one of the best closers in the game. Although he doesn’t have the eye-popping stats of Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman, Wagner actually measures up more favorably then you would imagine.
The Case For:
In this age of advanced metrics, Billy Wagner’s mastery can really be appreciated. According to Fangraphs, Wagner has the sixth highest WAR all-time for relievers, coming in just a smidge behind Hoffman and Smith.
Additionally, Wagner’s ERA- of 54 and FIP- of 63 reflect how dominate he was during his time. Essentially, Wagner’s adjusted metrics compare favorably not only to Smith and Hoffman, but to any reliever not named Mariano Rivera. Wagner is superior to every closer other than Rivera as it relates to these advanced metrics.
Wagner’s K% of 33.2% not only proves how dominate he was when he came into games, but outclasses every other stellar reliever who has been considered for the HOF to this point.
Now, while this might seem like a meaningless last point, Wagner was dominant in every city he pitched in, including big markets such as Philadelphia and New York. In an age where the closer position is like a revolving door, it’s important to note that Wagner excelled in some very tough places to play.
The Case Against:
While advanced metrics love Wagner, he unfortunately wasn’t even the best or most well-known reliever in his own town during his peak years. While Wagner was busy pitching for the Mets from 2006-2009, he had to compete with Mariano Rivera forthe title of New York’s best closer. While Wagner proved to be a great closer, Rivera was transcendent and overshadowed Wagner during his time in New York.
Additionally, Wagner’s total innings-pitched doesn’t come very close to the totals of other relievers considered for the Hall. Wagner pitched only 903 innings compared to Hoffman’s 1089 1/3, Smith’s 1252 1/3, and Rivera’s 1233 2/3.
While he accumulated an impressive number of saves, he trails both Smith’s 478 and Hoffman’s impressive 601. Saves are a bit of an arbitrary stat, but, like wins for a starting pitcher, they still matter in the eyes of some voters.
The last and perhaps greatest hurdle for Wagner’s Hall of Fame case is his position as a reliever. While his stats speak for themselves, it is notoriously difficult for closers to gain entry to the HOF unless they truly transcend the sport. While Wagner compares well to his peers, it may be difficult for him to overcome the multitude of other players that will join him on the ballot in the coming years.
The Verdict
Billy Wagner was one of the premier and dominant closers during his career in Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, his position will ultimately doom his chances of gaining entry to the Hall of Fame. As more and more writers become accepting of advanced metrics, you can expect to see an uptick in Wagner’s support as the years go by; however, Wagner will most likely fall short of the required 75% vote.
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