Irish bookmaker Boylesports is offering a price of 3/1 for England to win their upcoming Test series in South Africa. Given that the hosts have just been thrashed 3-0 in India, with the only Test they failed to lose seeing four days washed out, these odds seem extremely generous; England have a good a chance as ever to secure a series victory.
In 2012, when the two nations last played a Test series, South Africa won 2-0 thanks to an innings victory at the Oval, a draw at Headingley and a 51-run win at Lord’s. England, having been the number one-ranked side in the world a year before, had suffered a 3-0 reverse to Pakistan in the UAE in the spring leading up to the series, and had some serious questions that needed to be answered. Andrew Strauss’ retirement seemed to be imminent, as he failed to pass fifty in the series; Ravi Bopara and James Taylor both failed to secure the vacant number six spot; Tim Bresnan and Steven Finn were both fringe players looking to cement a spot; and Kevin Pietersen was sacked before the final Test on account of texts he had sent to opposition players. Whilst the wheels did not finally come off the side that had trounced India in 2011 under the 2013/14 Ashes tour, this was arguably the beginning of the end.
South Africa, meanwhile, were the top-ranked side in the world, and rightly so. Despite Mark Boucher’s retirement before the series on account of an eye injury suffered in a tour match at Taunton, they were balanced and settled as a team, and didn’t make a single change throughout the series. Seamers Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel were at the top of their game, with Jacques Kallis providing great support and Vernon Philander bursting onto the Test scene with a flurry of wickets; Imran Tahir held up an end with his solid leg-spin; Graeme Smith, Hashim Amla and Kallis were all on incredible form with the bat – the trio scored 624 between them for the loss of one wicket in the first Test – and were ably supported by AB de Villiers, who kept wicket, Alviro Petersen, Jacques Rudolph and JP Duminy. This was a truly fantastic side, with many players’ careers peaking that year.
The current South African side could hardly provide a more stark contrast. The side fielded for the final Test against India was a mediocre one at best, and not one that is guaranteed to beat England.
Why England Will Win in South Africa
Dean Elgar and Temba Bavuma, the opening pair, average 34.46 and 27.00 respectively in Tests, and Stiaan van Zyl, the other opening option, has been in dire form since a solid start to his Test career in the middle order. Hashim Amla’s form has waned since he took on the captaincy, and Faf du Plessis averaged an embarrassing 8.57 in India. JP Duminy fared little better, averaging only 14.0, and was perhaps only saved from the drop by the racial quotas imposed on the side. Dane Vilas was poor enough to miss out on the England series, and his replacement behind the stumps, AB de Villiers, cannot be expected to win Test matches on his own whilst keeping wicket and batting at four.
Kyle Abbott was probably the only player to come out of the series with his reputation enhanced, on account of his 5/40 at Delhi, but his spells in county cricket have shown he is not a world-class bowler by any means. Morne Morkel has not been in the best form of his life as late, and Dale Steyn has suffered through injuries. Vernon Philander will miss out on the series through injury, and Kagiso Rabada is still very much a raw talent.
Imran Tahir and Simon Harmer were poor in India despite the pitches aiding them, and thus dropped from the squad, and Dane Piedt will be the only spin option other than Duminy.
Imagine picking an XI that has to have at least six specialist batsmen, preferably seven, of which one is a wicket-keeper and one can bowl a bit, three seamers from a group where some are injured and the reserves rarely have enough game time, one specialist spinner from a trio and ensuring that there are at least four players of colour of which one is black African.
– Firdose Moonda
Meanwhile, England’s side, although young and unsettled, has two genuinely world-class batsmen in Joe Root and Alastair Cook, and several developing talents, as well as the brilliant new ball pair of James Anderson and Stuart Broad.
Alex Hales and either Gary Ballance or Nick Compton will bat in the top three with Cook, and three of James Taylor, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler and Ben Stokes will be from five to seven. Moeen Ali is likely to bat eight, and the three out-and-out seamers will be Anderson, Broad and either Chris Woakes, Steven Finn or Mark Foottit.
The batting is probably the biggest worry, especially with the reputation of South Africa’s pace attack, but none of them have been on top of their game recently, and England’s top order has shown many positive signs in the past year. Alex Hales may not be the answer in the long term at the top of the order, but will score quick runs, and whether Ballance or Compton comes in at three, that position is certain to be a steady one. Joe Root has shown that he is one of the best players in world cricket in the past two years, and Taylor, Bairstow, Buttler and Stokes are all positive and aggressive players, who you would back to have success on South African pitches.
Meanwhile, with the fragility of South Africa’s batting line-up having been demonstrated in India, Anderson and Broad will be licking their lips at the prospect of bowling at a set of out-of-form players in Elgar, Bavuma, Amla, du Plessis and Duminy in particular.
This England team is not perfect, but when compared man-for-man to their opposition, they do not come off badly. The idea of them entering the series as outsiders is a strange one, and if the confident mood that Trevor Bayliss has instilled in the camp can be continued, England should not be written off. If two of their unproven batsmen can fire, and Moeen, Stokes and the third seamer can keep it tight when bowling, there is no reason to suggest that England cannot win this series.
