As the festive season begins, the whirlwind of games in the Pro12 begins to flow. The Welsh regions will be hoping to keep consistency going through the Christmas period as they attempt to climb the table and grab that top spot before the New Year.
REALISTIC HOPES
Welsh rugby is in a strange place, with many divided over regional rugby and how it works. There will be a hope by many regional rugby fans that there will be a Welsh region on the top of the Pro12 table when the New Year beckons. Realistically which region could achieve this? I would be tempted to say the Ospreys, but a vein of bad form at the start of the season means that they would have to go unbeaten and their opponents would have to slip up for them to have their chance of sitting at top spot. The Scarlets are in pole position for the top of the table being only two points behind current leaders Connacht and lying in second place.
The Llanelli boys may hold our hopes of getting a top spot and with Treviso away next, they should gain another five points. The big test will be Ospreys at home and with both regions having the majority of Welsh talent in their sides, it should be a great match. These ties are sandwiching European ties away and home to Glasgow; both of which will be very difficult as Glasgow are a well-coached and tight side, but both are winnable if the Scarlets turn up.
With the Ospreys, Dragons and Blues sitting 8th, 9th and 10th respectively they hold no mathematical hope of hitting the top of the table in December, and will even have to go some to reach the European slots. Many regional rugby fans however, will be asking for an unbeaten Christmas irrespective of New Year league position. Climbing up the table will be their goal for January and February; the departure of internationals for the Six Nations offers them a realistic hope of achieving this.
In Europe, there can be some expectation of an unbeaten run in December by the Ospreys who face Bordeaux home and away, and whilst Bordeaux are no push overs, they are definitely a team to target at least two four point wins. Scarlets hopes lay heavily on their consistency, and with Jamie Davies out injured for a while, they will be without their star forward and arguably their player of the season so far, and so will hope to get a win and a draw perhaps as a realistic December. The Dragons take on Pau and they have to come away with ten points if they are looking for a realistic target, as they do have talent and youth in their squad and Pau are no European giants. The Cardiff Blues face tougher opposition with a double set of ties with Montpellier who are never easy to push over and are a strong outfit, especially at home.
Welsh fans should hope that we only lose two games in Europe this month, with perhaps a draw a not so unlikely option. The Blues will be looking ahead for a tough month, as this week the news came out that Sam Warburton will be side-lined for 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury and so he will play no part over the vital Christmas period.
WELSH DERBIES
The Boxing Day fixture lies in the hands of Scarlets vs. Ospreys and hopefully they will warm the cockles of Welsh rugby as they go head-to-head battling to be the best side in Western Wales. History would tell us that perhaps the Ospreys would sneak this, but this year’s form tells us that the Scarlets will get the victory. Either way we always hope to see a good, fully blooded tie.
The day after sees the Dragons host the Blues. This season’s form tells us that the Dragons should win it, especially being at home, but with lots of fresh, new, young talent on show we can be sure to see lots of passion and guts on display down at Rodney Parade.
This will be the first Christmas period that hosts more Welsh players than the past few years with the introduction of National Dual Contracts (NDCs). With stars such as Dan Biggar, Alun-Wyn Jones, Scott Williams and Gareth Anscombe all signed on to these contracts it is refreshing to see plenty of Welsh stars playing for Welsh regions.
Yes, there are players injured – the likes of Sam Warburton, Rhys Webb and Jonathan Davies are all out injured – but this gives the younger lads a chance to prove that they are the next Welsh stars, and that should be what professional rugby in Wales is all about; the spotting and developing of future Welsh players.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Overall, look for the Scarlets to have a promising league campaign, but with a tough slog in Europe with perhaps one win a respectful outlook. The Dragons should look to have the most promising festive period with arguably the best overall ties, and so look for the Dragons to go unbeaten this December. Ospreys may have the hardest tie away to the Scarlets, but other than that expect another good run from them as they look to regain a grip on European slots this year and for next. The Blues are looking at a December where they may only able to grasp victories in the league and even then they may have trouble with the Dragons, so look for the capital city side to have the worst Christmas record.
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