For people around the world, the month of December brings time to reflect on both the past year and also the excitement of what the next might hold. However, while we’re nearly a third of the way through the month already, the Vancouver Canucks long December is just beginning, and unlike the Counting Crows song, there’s very little hope this year will be better than the last.
The Vancouver Canucks Long December
The Canucks are in an extremely precarious position, tottering between a favorable playoff spot and a lottery pick with an 11-11-8 record. That’s certainly nothing to write home about and while they (astoundingly) sit in 2nd place in the Pacific Division, they are also just six points out of 30th in the league. That’s why this December might not only make or break the Canucks season, it could have a real impact on the future of the franchise for many years.
After a tight 2-1 win at home over the New York Rangers last night (their first two-game winning streak since the beginning of November), Vancouver gets a brief reprieve before heading out on a six-games-in-10-nights road trip that includes stops in Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, Florida, and Tampa Bay – all teams with a higher points percentage than the Canucks. One could say the trip’s other game against the Philadelphia Flyers might be the most “winnable” of the bunch, but even Philly has been rolling lately, with points in five of their last six games.
The Canucks will then close out the year with home games against the Edmonton Oilers (who have already beaten them once in Vancouver this season) and the Los Angeles Kings (who, needless to say, are tearing up the West at the moment).
A tough road indeed, particularly for a team struggling to stay afloat. The problems plaguing the Canucks so far this season – the complete dearth of secondary scoring behind the twins, the middling special teams, the often ugly defense, the hit-or-miss goaltending, the questionable coaching decisions – have been well chronicled. What is more interesting is how the results of this month will affect the team going forward, and there are two potential scenarios in play.
The Canucks Win Out
Okay, maybe not win out entirely, but in this scenario Vancouver is able to stay afloat, possibly even improve their record, and find themselves still in a playoff position come January. Ownership and by proxy management would be thrilled with this outcome (publicly), as it would validate their “rebuild on the fly” and “develop the kids in a winning environment” mandate.
The latter philosophy has some merit, because it’s no coincidence that as the club hit the skids over the past month, so too did its lauded young guns. After five goals in his first nine games, Jared McCann, the center who has drawn comparisons to Joe Sakic from some corners of the hockey world, has just one in 19 since. Winger Jake Virtanen had gone scoreless in seven before his injury, while Sven Baertschi hasn’t hit the score sheet in 10 and sophomore Bo Horvat has struggled to the tune of two goals in 30 games. Defenseman Ben Hutton has continued to be a bright spot, but he also missed a handful of games due to injury.
So while an extended run of winning more often than not has the potential to help the kids, who in turn have the potential to help the team win, a puzzling question remains: Is that actually the best outcome for the franchise’s long-term health on the ice?
Yes, those four players represent a big part of the Canucks future, and starting off their careers on the right foot will help immeasurably, but there is no Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, or Connor McDavid in that group, a true superstar leader to replace Daniel and Henrik Sedin that the team’s next core desperately needs. And there’s only one way to acquire such a player.
The fear among fans who support a full rebuild is the Canucks will play well enough to challenge for the playoffs this year, perhaps tempting management to hang on to movable veteran assets like winger Radim Vrbata in an attempt to collect the income from a few playoff home dates, which would appease ownership at a time when Vancouver should be collecting as many future assets as it can.
This is the crux of the “rebuild while staying competitive” modus operandi – yes, it may prove favorable to develop the kids you have in a winning environment, but it doesn’t permit you to get the future superstar(s) you need. Which brings us to…
The Canucks Crash and Burn
Again, just as in the previous scenario, the Canucks don’t necessarily have to go 0-8-0 between now and New Year’s Eve, but even a sub-.500 record could see Vancouver rapidly plummet to the NHL’s basement and a lottery pick – a hole they are unlikely to climb out of, even given the relative weakness of the Pacific Division.
This outcome would please the hardcore yet patient Canucks fans that would like to see potentially a top-five pick join the team next season and really give the new core a shot in the arm. However, as enticing as an Auston Matthews or a Jakob Chychrun (who would be particularly intriguing given the state of the Canucks blueline coffers) would be, this road also has its drawbacks.
One is ownership’s real concern: The Vancouver fans won’t stand for a true bottoming-out rebuild process. While many scoff at the thought, the attendance alone this season (not to mention some fans who literally can’t even give tickets away) indicates otherwise. With rumors the Acquilini ownership group is looking to sell, this attempt to remain competitive may just be a dog-and-pony show for ownership to make the most of their investment. That’s all conjecture, but it would explain some of the team’s current philosophy if true. It may also be moot if the team closes the year with a losing record.
It would however encourage the club to ship off a number of veterans, such as Vrbata, Brandon Prust and Dan Hamhuis, in addition to possibly Chris Higgins and Alex Burrows, in an attempt to stockpile as many futures as they can.
Realistically, this is the only time they can do that. Vrbata, Prust and Hamhuis are on expiring contracts and, depending on who you talk to, the chances of them coming back, even at a reduced salary, are between “maybe” and “absolutely not.” In the case of Burrows and Higgins, both have seen a drop off in their play this season, and their value is only going to continue to decrease. These players, who in this context are viewed only as assets, must be moved now in order to maximize their potential return, as underwhelming as that return might be for some. Vancouver being out of the playoff picture on January 1st will greatly encourage management to do so.
Right now, it seems as though either scenario could play out, and both outcomes are equally likely. The Canucks have a strong stable of young pieces in place, but how they will augment and improve that core is unknown. Will the team face the double-edged sword of remaining competitive now, thereby reducing their chance of future success, or the other double-edged sword of bottoming out to potentially secure a high draft pick and other assets but hurting the development of their young future core and becoming the Oilers 2.0?
One thing that is certain: We will have a much clearer picture of where exactly this franchise is headed, for better or worse, on New Year’s Day.
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