Hey! Glad to see you back! In Part 1, we examined the three most important players on the 76ers current roster. In Part 2, the microscope was put on the rest of the roster and Philadelphia’s GM, Sam Hinkie. Finally, we’re here in Part 3 (I think “finally,” but don’t be shocked if, at the end of the year, we’re in “The Rebuilding of the Philadelphia 76ers Rebuild (Part 284)” territory). In this edition, we’ll look at the picks that the Sixers have accumulated with all their wheeling and dealing.
The fundamental basis in which the Philadelphia 76ers rebuild has been founded on is that draft picks have value, whether used to draft incoming players, or used in trades. Since GM Sam Hinkie took over, the moves have brought plenty of picks Philly’s way. But can those picks turn the Sixers into a contender? Where they currently stand, the Sixers are the last place it would seem an elite-caliber NBA free agent would want to sign. Hinkie & Co. need to hit on their draft picks to turn Philadelphia into a free agent destination, in order to augment their roster with veteran contributors in the future … at least one would think.
Here are Philadelphia’s picks going forward:
In 2016 Philadelphia has:
- Their own pick
- Los Angeles Lakers’ first round pick (top-3 protected, unprotected in 2017)
- Miami Heat’s first round pick
- Oklahoma City Thunder’s first round pick
- Their own second round pick
- Denver Nuggets’ second round pick
(Philadelphia can swap either the Heat’s, or the Thunder’s first round pick with Golden St.’s first rounder, but given the Warriors performance in the early goings, it seems safe to say this provision will be of no consequence. Simply put: The 76ers get the two best picks of the Heat, Thunder, and/or Warriors.)
In 2017, Philadelphia has just two picks, their own first rounder, and their own second. However, their first round pick can be swapped with Sacramento if the Kings’ pick is better. 2017 is also the most likely draft when the Lakers’ first round pick will be cashed in, due to it being protected in 2016.
In 2018:
- Their own first
- Kings’ first rounder (top-10 protected)
- Their own second
- The better of the Nets/Cavs second
In 2019:
- Their own first and second
- Knicks’ second
- The better of the Bucks/Kings second
In 2020:
- Their own first
- Their own second
- Nets’ second
- Knicks’ second
In 2021:
- Their own first
- Their own second
- Knicks’ second
The Sixers have the right to swap first round picks with the Kings in 2017 and 2018 , as part of the Nik Stauskas trade, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where Sacramento’s pick is better than Philly’s in either year, unless the draft lottery goes bonkers. As part of that same trade, Philadelphia also netted a future first round pick. The earliest they can get that pick is 2018, when it’s top-10 protected, then it becomes unprotected after that, so it might not come to fruition until 2019.
Philadelphia also owns the rights to Dario Saric, who’s playing in Europe. It’s said he’ll be playing in Philadelphia next year. Saric is just 21, but everyday he plays in a uniform that isn’t a Philadelphia uniform is one more day that goes by where the Sixers are banking on yet another unknown to come through. Also, Saric is 6’10”, 220 lbs., so it will be yet another big body for the Sixers to juggle in their frontcourt line-up.
Owning the rights to the Lakers’ first round pick is intriguing for the Sixers. The pick is top-3 protected this year, and if their performance thus far is any indicator, the Lakers will probably be keeping it. In 2017, it’s unprotected, so there’s where it has value. But with the way the NBA’s draft lottery works, it’s impossible to project where that pick lands.
It’s a longshot hypothetical, but if the Lakers make the playoffs next season, and the Kings have a top-10 pick in 2018, then turn it around and make the playoffs in 2019, Philadelphia could go through all of this and end up not acquiring a single top-15 pick (not counting their own). One has to expect that at least a few of these picks will be packaged and used to move up in the draft, or in other trades, but after this next draft, that Kings’ and/or the Lakers’ pick are really the only ones that could be used to move up in any significant way, or used to trade for a game-changing player. Other than that, it’s just a bunch of end-of-the-first-round or second round picks (which make up at least 15 or the 23 picks listed). It’s like a rock collection, it’s fun to look at, but in totality, the collective value must be called into question. I won’t list all the picks the Boston Celtics have acquired, but suffice it to say, their collection of picks is just as impressive, but they’ve avoided bottoming out like Philadelphia, and are likely to make the playoffs this year (as they did last year). The 2016 Draft Lottery and draft itself may end up being the two most influential days for the future of the 76ers franchise.
The hypothesis that losing now will turn Philadelphia into a future winner isn’t that far-fetched. It’s worked in the past, just never attempted to this magnitude. In theory, it’s simple; in reality, it’s very, very complicated. It hinges on Hinkie betting on himself and his staff to find diamonds in the rough that will be passed over by other teams in future drafts. But the league is getting smarter. When advanced analytics took hold of the league, there was inherent value in it; team’s that used analytics were looking underneath rocks that other teams weren’t bothering to turn over. Now, virtually every team has an analytics dept., and finding value in players where other teams aren’t looking has become as hard as winning a championship. It’s difficult to imagine there being any middle ground between Philly’s plan being a smashing success, or the most destructive thing any management group has done to a franchise, aside from relocating the team. For now, for better or worse, in Hinkie they trust.
