“I am the best player in the league,” is a phrase uttered by only the best in the NBA. LeBron James did it during the playoffs last season. Kevin Durant reminded everyone of his greatness during training camp, when all had seemingly forgotten during his injury absence. Steph Curry hasn’t yet, but it’s not really his style publicly to do so. The quote above, though, was from James Harden. Almost two months to the day he uttered those words, and he’s not really justifying it at all thus far.
The team he is supposed to lead has gotten off to an awful start this season. Houston has started to get back on track with two good wins over New Orleans and Dallas, and they may have turned the corner on their season. As a result they’ve snuck back into 8th place in the Western Conference, albeit with a 9-11 win-loss record.
They thought firing Kevin McHale might make a difference, but have only enjoyed a 5-4 record since he was given his marching orders two weeks ago. Part of the problem with hiring one of his own staff (J.B. Bickerstaff) to replace him for the time being is that his own staff is most likely part of the problem, not the solution because they share McHale’s ideas. A new voice should have some effect, but will likely not propel the team back into the elite status they once belonged.
Houston’s point differential this season is 24th in the league at -4.7, which is worse than teams who they are supposed to be superior to, such as the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves who all share somewhat flawed rosters. They’re already 5-7 at home after going 30-11 last season and are 5-8 against teams with records over .500. It’s not looking good in Houston.
Advanced metrics aren’t kind to them either. The Rockets’ offensive efficiency has slipped from 12th last year (104.2 rating) to 20th in the league (100.1) this time round. On the defensive end their efficiency has dropped even more, from 6th last year (100.5) to a mediocre 27th now (106.3). When Ty Lawson is your only new arrival to work into last season’s Western Conference finalist, that is more than alarming.
Now this is not all on Harden; it would be an unfair overreaction to say that it is. But the All-NBA first teamer from last season has not returned as the same this time round. He was reported to have returned to training camp out of shape, and has spent more time building his brand and hanging out with Kardashians than improving his game.
A simple comparison to make is between Harden and Curry. They were neck and neck in the MVP race last year. with Harden taking out the players version of the award, the NBPA MVP. It was fair to debate who made a better case, and it was really a toss up. Curry’s historically good Golden State Warriors arguably gave him a significant edge in the voting process.
But the number 30 from Golden State has returned this season even better, and his shooting is as scorching as it’s ever been. Alongside his record breaking squad, he’s on pace for a campaign worthy of the history books. Harden’s certainly had some nights though, as we can see below:
Most Games with 25 Points, 5 Rebounds & 5 Assists This Season James Harden 9 Russell Westbrook 8
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 5, 2015
That also doesn’t mention he has five 40-point games this season, 2nd in the league (behind Curry of course). Harden’s basic numbers are fantastic on paper, averaging 29.3ppg, 6.8rpg and 6.7apg. It’s also worth mentioning he’s averaging 4.6 turnovers per game, which is a career high.
But a deeper look into Harden’s statistics this season do not reflect well on Houston’s star man. He’s shooting a meagre 40 percent from the field and a horrendous 29 percent from 3. When you’re shooting 8.8 3-point attempts per game, you want to be hitting them at a far better rate than that.
One of the reasons his attempts and resulting misses are so relevant is that Harden is often a crucial part of the Rockets transition defense. If he doesn’t make an effort defensively, these are the results:
It’s been a joke amongst the basketball community for a while now and it can’t be very nice to be the ridicule of the league on the defensive end. The vines available now to watch are endless. Harden’s defense was so terrible in 2013-14 that he became a laughingstock online, resulting in videos like these popping up all over the place:
James Harden, Defensive Juggernaut (2013-14) by vladream
His defense turned a corner last season, with his on court defensive rating improving from 107 in 2013/14 to 103 last season. It’s not elite by any measure, but it’s respectable. It’s simply unacceptable to take plays off though, especially when you’re setting an example to the rest of your team. Dwight Howard is certainly not going to lead, so it has to be Harden setting the tone out there.
Along with his terrible shooting this campaign, his offensive rating has also slipped. It was 118 last season with Harden on court for the Rockets, but a much less effective 110 thus far. Defensively he’s regressed as well after last season, from 103 to 108. His defensive plus minus was actually a positive last season at a +1.0, but is back to -1.1 through 20 games this year.
A career high 4.2 defensive win shares (via Basketball Reference) last season was great to see, but it all goes to waste if he’s regressed back to defending like a turnstile. It’s all well and good to stuff the scoresheet, but if you’re a negative rating when on the court (-3.4 points per 100 possessions), which Harden is, what’s the point? They might be scoring 103.4 per 100 with him, but conceding 107.1 is pathetic and not the mark of a contender.
Opponents are shooting 48.2 percent against Harden, 4.2 percent better than those opponents season average. The metrics are seemingly not kind to him at all no matter how you look at them, be it offensively or defensively.
He has not blended with prized recruit Ty Lawson at all, and has actually only been assisted by Lawson 8 times so far this season. For all the talk of how big a catch that was for Houston in the offseason, it hasn’t exactly delivered so far as the Rockets search for the right blend of their talents.
They may have improved through the last two wins over the Pelicans and the Mavericks, and it simply has to be sustained for the rest of the season. If Harden wants to reach the heights he expects of not only himself but more importantly his team, he needs to start showing the way for them going forward. Otherwise his legacy will be a star who always cared about his own numbers ahead of everything else.
