When long time NBA fans, and especially retired players, talk about Los Angeles Clippers Chris Paul, they often mention one name in comparison: Isiah Thomas. Thomas was an intelligent player, a feisty defender, a hard-nosed leader, an unselfish, pass-first point guard—everything that has made Paul widely considered to be the best point guard in the league since as early as 2008.
Without question, Thomas was a great player, and the comparison should flatter Paul. The most obvious difference between the two is that Thomas won two NBA championships in his NBA career—back-to-back rings in 1989 and 1990. Paul has yet to bring his team past the second round of the playoffs, which has caused him as much scrutiny as almost any player in the last few seasons. In 2014, much of the blame went to Paul for the Clippers blowing a late lead against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game five of the second round, then losing the series at home in game six. Last season, Paul banked in a runner over Tim Duncan to win the deciding game of a hard fought first round series against the San Antonio Spurs. But fans like to remember failures more than success, and the Clippers were rightly criticized for blowing a 3-1 series lead on their way to losing a second round series to Houston. Sure, part of the reason Los Angeles lost might have been a lack of depth, but the loss of a series that was in the bag cannot be overlooked.
What followed, beyond the intense criticism of Paul and the Clippers, was a question among fans, media, and people around the NBA: was this the Clippers’ last shot at winning with a core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan? That core has been together for four seasons now, with four early playoff exits. ESPN’s Zach Lowe mentioned in an October column (R.I.P. Grantland) that the Clippers had options: break up the core, or wait for things to break right, like with the 2010-11 Mavericks. L.A. was nearly forced to do the former, as Jordan agreed to sign in Dallas, but the Clippers won the emoji battle and Jordan stayed. The Clippers have a few more shots at a title—or do they?
The window is closing faster than anyone could ever imagine. The new additions of Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, and Josh Smith were supposed to make the bench deeper than ever, but Pierce has been sleepwalking through the first 15 games of the season—can he just “flip the switch” for the playoffs? Stephenson and Smith have struggled to fit in with the team, and the fears that many had are coming to fruition, regarding the chemistry, spacing, and attitude issues that those two would bring to the team. As of November 26th, the Clippers are 7-8. I do think that they’ll pick it up, and I expect a fourth straight 50 win season despite the slow start. But the Clippers have bigger issues: thus far, Chris Paul has not been the same player that he once was.
Last season, Paul played in all 82 games, even carrying the Clippers when Blake Griffin went down with an injury. Paul would have made a strong run for MVP, if not for the outstanding play of so many other stars. The playoffs were no exception, with him thriving in the aforementioned series against the Spurs. But this season has been a different story, even if it has “only” been 15 games. Paul has already missed three games with a groin strain. But his play when healthy has been more troubling than his injuries; he has averaged just 17.3 points per game, his lowest average since the 2010-11 season (when he played for New Orleans), and 8.4 assists, Paul’s lowest since his rookie season. Stats don’t tell the whole story, but there’s more to Paul’s regression. Paul has been visibly slower on the court, both laterally and end-to-end, as showcased when Damian Lillard lit him up for 27 points in the Clippers’ ugly loss to Portland last Friday.
Paul is still an elite player, without a doubt. Sure, Stephen Curry has easily surpassed him in the hierarchy of NBA point guards, but that’s more due to Curry’s unbelievable play than Paul’s regression. However, there has to be a serious question among fans of whether he is even on the level of other all-world talents; is he better than Russell Westbrook anymore? John Wall? Damian Lillard? The answer is likely still yes for the latter two, but probably not with regards to Westbrook. The point is that Chris Paul is on the decline, and Clippers fans may have reason to worry.
Let’s go back to the Isiah Thomas comparison: how did Thomas fare at the end of his career? The answer might scare Paul’s supporters. Thomas averaged 17.6 points and 8.5 assists per game in the season in which he turned 32, a far cry from his peak statistical seasons; Paul will turn 31 in May, and as I mentioned earlier, he’s averaging just 17.3 points and 8.4 assists this season – nearly identical to Thomas’s stats. Thomas retired at age 33 after tearing his Achilles, having already tailed off a little by the end of his career. There’s no guarantee that Paul will follow the same path, and certainly no one wants Paul to suffer such an injury. But as the cliché goes, history repeats itself. It’s not too surprising that Tony Parker, currently at age 33, has been a shell of himself since the beginning of last season. Point guards rely more heavily on speed and quickness than any other players, and Paul is a prime example of that. These are possibly the hardest of any abilities for players to maintain as they age. Paul has to refine other aspects of his game in order to save himself from suffering the same fate as many other point guards before him.
The Clippers’ championship contention window might be closing. It’s up to Chris Paul to keep it open for as long as possible.
