The 20 game mark in the NHL season is usually a time when the strengths and weaknesses of a club have been fully exposed, giving not only team executives but also fans time to ruminate on where their franchise needs to improve.
The LWOS hockey department has done the same, taking a division-by-division snapshot of where each team is at at the quarter pole, and where they are heading as a result.
Next up is the Atlantic Division covered by Cordell Ventura and Griffin Schroeder.
The NHL at the Quarter Poll: Atlantic Division
Montreal Canadiens – 15-4-2 – 32 points – 74GF/48GA – 1st In The Atlantic
Surprises: The Desharnais Line and Mike Condon. The Habs’ third line, made up of Tomas Fleischmann, David Desharnais and Dale Weise, has been more than a pleasant surprise for the Canadiens. For a combined total of 21 goals and 43 points, this line has also been the most exciting to watch. Weise leads the line in goals (with nine), while Desharnais has six goals and leads with 16 points.
Mike Condon, the team’s new back-up goalie, was another wonderful surprise for the Habs this year. And his emergence could not have come at a better time for his team. Condon took over between the pipes when starting goalie Carey Price sustained a lower-body injury. Prior to Price being out, Condon was among the league’s leaders in goalie stats. Now that Price has returned, Condon has seven wins in 11 starts this season. He also boasts a 2.23 goals against average and a .913 save percentage.
Disappointments: Alex Semin. The Russian winger began the season playing on the right side of Alex Galchenyuk on the Habs’ second line. Currently, he’s bouncing in and out of the lineup as he has been a healthy scratch for eight games this season. He has one goal and three assists on the season.
Outlook: This is a statement year for the Canadiens, proving that they are more than a team carried by the world’s best goaltender. The Habs, who couldn’t seem to score last year, are leading the league in goals for (with 74) and were able to keep winning while Price missed over two weeks of play.
Prediction: The Montreal Canadiens should be on everybody’s list of Stanley Cup contenders this season. The Habs will likely add a couple depth pieces closer to the deadline and should be able to ride the hot start to an Altantic Division win.
Ottawa Senators- 9-5-5, 23 points, 57GF/57GA, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Surprise: Bobby Ryan – Now 28, the aforementioned Ryan once scored 30+ goals in four straight seasons for the Anaheim Ducks from 2008-2012, adding 11 in the lockout-shortened 2013 season. After getting dealt in the Jakub Silverberg deal to Ottawa that offseason, it seemed like Ryan had yet to recapture that past magic in the new country with 41 goals combined the past two seasons. This year is a totally different story, with Ryan amassing seven goals through the first 19 games while amassing an impressive 17 points, leading Sens forwards. The seven goals he has scored is almost half of his total output of 18 last season. He will be a key piece to the Sens’ playoff chances in a wide open Atlantic Division.
Disappointment: The defence. The Sens have an even goal differential, but the defence has played a big part in it getting there. As a group, the team ranks 26th in CF% at 47.43% in close games, and Erik Karlsson is the only man in the group with an average CF% of 50%. The reigning Norris Trophy winner also has amassed 21 points, six more than the entire rest of the core combined. Getting the puck up the ice is crucial in today’s NHL, and the captain has been shining light on a relatively dismal blueline. More production and possession needs to come for Dave Cameron’s group to stay in the race.
Outlook: Anything can happen in the Atlantic Division, and while the Canadiens will be hard to catch, look for the Sens to stay competitive along with the six other teams separated by just five points with Toronto having 18. Craig Anderson has been solid in goal posting an average .915 save percentage netting seven of the team’s nine wins, but he needs help from his defense, as the team has allowed 3+ goals in 11 of 19 games played so far. For now, they sit second in the division and could be out of a playoff spot tomorrow. The team can put the puck in the net, scoring the 6th most goals in the league at 57, but the lackluster supporting cast for Erik Karlsson could hold them back.
Prediction: Tampa Bay won’t be held down for long, and every team in the conference is hard to play against, yes, even the Maple Leafs. The Senators will be a bubble team hanging around a wild card spot like they were last year. Can they recapture last year’s magic? Time will tell.
Detroit Red Wings- 10-8-2, 22 points, 10-8-2, 45GF/49GA, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Surprise: Dylan Larkin – The Red Wings were expected to keep 19-year old first round pick Dylan Larkin in Grand Rapids at least for the start of the season like they are prone to do with prospects. However, due to injuries to Pavel Datsyuk and Darren Helm along with Larkin having a great camp himself, he made the team, becoming the first teenager since Mike Sillinger to make the team out of camp.
He has not relinquished his spot. Playing consistent top six minutes, Larkin is tied for the team lead in goals with seven and has added 14 points in 20 games, good for third among rookie scoring leaders. He also has shown his unbelievable hockey sense on more than one occasion, making plays that one would see from a ten-year vet almost game-to-game. The Waterford native has arguably been the Wings’ best player.
Disappointment: Darren Helm- Although Helm missed all of training camp after suffering an injury about five minutes into it, 16 games have come and gone with no goals and one assist. The 28-year old center is coming off of a career year, potting 15 goals and 33 points in 75 games played. Although he has looked up to speed in the past few games, the time is now for Helm to produce. The team ranks 25th in goals for and timely goals from the speedy forward would certainly help the cause. His role has been primarily on the fourth line with Luke Glendening and Drew Miller, but he’s been known to bounce around the top six, primarily with Pavel Datsyuk last season. Look for him to get going soon.
Outlook: There is always transition when a new bench boss comes into town. Mike Babcock stressed a strong defense-first mentality in Detroit with defensemen jumping into the play rarely. Under Blashill’s regime, the defense has a part in the transition game in almost every shift, a switch the Wings have steadied the course in with staying in a playoff spot. The team is still a work in progress giving up 30.7 shots per game (8th in League) and taking a measly 25.9 per game (29th in League). Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek have been sparkling, posting a combined .927 save percentage and 2.22 GAA. They’ve been a big reason why the team has given up only one more goal than division leader Montreal. The team seems to be figuring things out and are trending upward in their possession game at 47.86% CF% in close games.
Prediction: Detroit will continue to hang around the top of three of the division, and will make the playoffs yet again. They could even challenge for home ice advantage in the first round.
Tampa Bay Lightning- 9-9-3, 21 points, 48GF/50GA, fourth in Atlantic Division
Surprise: It was said that Andrei Vasilevskiy was going to be out for 2-3 months when blood clots were discovered just prior to training camp. He returned much quicker than expected and everyone around the league should be happy for that. One of the league’ s most promising young goalkeepers, Vasilevskiy has a 2.03 GAA and .929 save percentage in four games since returning
Disappointments: Offense – 75 goals. That’s how many pucks tickled the twine off Tampa Bay sticks at this time last season. In 2015-16, that number is 48. Between injuries, inconsistent play, and just snakebitten players, the Lightning have faltered out of the gate suffering from Stanley Cup hangover. Steven Stamkos doesn’t have a contract signed yet and his nine goals lead the team. The “Triplets” have combined for 10 goals and 27 points thus far, and have since split time this season on different lines with Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat dealing with injuries. Jonathan Drouin had seven points in 14 games before he went down, and Ryan Callahan is another injured Bolt that has gotten off to a slow start, potting just four goals in 20 games played.
Ryan Callahan: Speak of the devil, the 30-year old winger has gotten off to a slow start, like most of his teammates. Four goals and six points from one of the more physical leaders up front won’t cut it, and his CF%Rel (shot attempts for team while on ice) places him near the bottom of his teammates at -5.2. A former captain, Callahan has the work ethic and attitude to break out of the funk, but he, like many others, must step up on and off the ice.
Outlook: It’s only a matter of time. The Lightning have the 8th best possession team in the game and allow the fourth-fewest shots. Once they get their bodies back in the form of Palat, Johnson, Drouin, and Callahan, they’ll make a run. This team did not have really any changeover from last season, picking up Erik Condra in the offseason to boost the bottom six. The goals need to come for the tandem of Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who have combined for a .925 save percentage and 2.11 GAA, and once they do, it will be a familiar sight in the standings.
Prediction: In a wide open division, the team will battle Detroit for home ice much like last season.
Boston Bruins- 9-8-1, 19 points, 60GF/56GA, fifth in Atlantic Division
Surprise: Loui Eriksson – When then-General Manager Peter Chiarelli traded for the now 30-year old Loui Eriksson on July 4th, 2013, he parted ways with phenom Tyler Seguin, who just partied too much for his liking. Seguin has found a friend in Jamie Benn and they have played the league on rookie mode every since. As for Eriksson, it’s been a slow go. In 61 games that season, he posted just ten goals, the lowest since he broke into the league in 2006-07 with six in 59. A former 36-goal scorer, Eriksson this season looks like a completely different player, scoring nine goals and 17 points in 18 games. He is on pace to cruise by his total of 32 goals combined since joining the Bruins coming into this season.
Disappointment: Tuukka Rask – It’s been a tough go for the guy who was traded for Andrew Raycroft. A 3.18 GAA, .890 save percentage, and 5-7-1 record is not what the Bruins had in mind, especially when the team has the offense to support him with nine double digit point scorers. The bad start has given Jonas Gustavsson time to shine, and “The Monster” has, like he did in Detroit, taken advantage of his opportunities. A 2.20 GAA and .914 save percentage has vaulted him to a 4-1 record, a huge bonus from a guy who came to camp on a PTO. The 2014 Vezina Trophy Winner has had a couple of great showings in his last five games against Detroit and the Islanders, something he needs to consistently show pretty soon. Best bet is that he will.
Outlook: Almost everyone in the hockey world laughed at Don Sweeney with his questionable moves this offseason. Trading Dougie Hamilton for picks with which he chose players not high on many radar screens, giving up a third round pick for Zac Rinaldo, and signing Matt Beleskey for $3.8 million per year for five years name a few of them. However, the team has surprised in the goal scoring department, potting 60 (third best in the League). However, the defense seems to be lacking with Dougie Hamilton gone, as the team is tied for 25th in goals allowed. The possession route has been solid for the team as well posting a 50.81% CF% in close games giving up only 28.1 shots per game while taking 30.4 per contest. All in all, it’s a mixed bag that will help the team hang around and possibly contend for a wild card spot.
Prediction: The Bruins will continue to fight for a playoff spot with Tuukka Rask back to his old self again.
Florida Panthers – 8-8-3 – 19 points – 50GF/48GA – 6th In The Atlantic
Surprises: Jaromir Jagr and Vincent Trocheck. The 43-three-old Czech winger continues to amaze fans season after season. He just doesn’t age. Jagr is also the perfect fit for the Panthers leading the team both on and off the ice. He leads the team in scoring with seven goals and 15 points. Trocheck has 7 goals and 13 points in 19 games, as he has gotten off to a strong start in his second NHL season.
Disappointments: Injury issues. Losing players like Aleksander Barkov and Dmitri Kulikov for extended periods of time makes things tough on this Panthers team. While the club is young and improving, they just don’t have the depth to deal with injuries to some of their best players, and staying in the race while waiting for them to come back will be quite the task for this team.
Outlook: The Panthers have turned to their youth offensively this season. While Jagr is leading the team, Trocheck, Smith, Bjugstad and Huberdeau each have double digit point totals so far this season. Barkov had 7 points in 9 games before he got hurt.
Prediction: This year’s Florida Panthers should be expected to be in the playoff mix, especially as they continue to heat up offensively and get those injured players back. They seem to have the leadership and veteran presence to remain consistent down the stretch. It’ll be up to the kids to be the difference makers and game changers.
Buffalo Sabres – 8-9-2 – 18 points – 43GF/52GA – 7th In The Atlantic
Surprises: Linus Ullmark. The 22-year-old rookie goalie earned his spot on the team in starting goalie Robin Lehner’s absence. Ullmark was drafted in the sixth round by the Sabres in 2012. In eight starts this season, Ullmark has four wins, a 2.31 goals against average and a .926 save percentage. There is some question if he has stolen the starting job, even after Lehner’s return. There is no doubt he’s passed Chad Johnson on the depth chart though.
Disappointments: Evander Kane and Lehner. Kane has played only nine games (missing 10 games due to an MCL injury in his left knee) for the Sabres this season, scoring just one goal and three points.
Lehner, a questionable summer acquisition that cost the Sabres a first-round draft pick and forced the team to take on the contract of forward David Legwand, sustained a sprained ankle in the team’s first game on the season.
Outlook: The Sabres have taken a legitimate step forward this year. This seems to be a core-building year for the Sabres, letting youngsters like Eichel and Sam Reinhart develop while veterans like Ryan O’Reilly, Kane and Matt Moulson gain chemistry.
Prediction: Will the Buffalo Sabres make the playoffs this season? Not likely. However, the Sabres should continue to improve this season but will ultimately end up a lottery team. They are building good things in Buffalo though, and should really fight for a spot in 2016-17
Toronto Maple Leafs – 7-9-4 – 18 Points – 48GF/56GA – 8th In The Atlantic
Surprises: Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri. Rielly, only 21 years old, is tied (with Tyler Bozak) for first in team scoring with 12 points in 20 games played. Despite primarily being paired up with Matt Hunwick, Rielly is for the most part matched up against the opposition’s top forwards. He also has a positive shot attempt differential so far this year.
Kadri, 25, has been one of the team’s more consistent forwards thus far. Despite his lack low goal total (of only two), he is ranked in the league’s top five for shots on goal this season. He’s also in the top 10 for scoring chances. With no signs of slowing down, the goals and points should come sooner or later for Kadri.
Disappointments: Jonathan Bernier. In eight starts with the Leafs this season, Bernier (0-7-1) has yet to earn his first win. Right now, he boasts an abysmal 3.17 goals against average and a .895 save percentage. Bernier has yet to give his team an edge against an opposing team and has been outshined – to say the least – by fellow net minder James Reimer. Bernier seems to give up one or two bad goals every time he’s put on the ice.
Outlook: Everybody knew the Maple Leafs would be bad this year. But deep down I think fans were expecting more out this club out of the gate. After winning just one game in October they have started to turn things around in November and look much better, however are still dead last in the Atlantic Division. The Leafs are 6-2-2 in their last 10 games, largely due to the performances of Reimer. The funny thing is that they continue to confound the analytics junkies as they were a strong possession team in October, while those numbers have fallen off in November. The wins tell the opposite tale though.
Prediction: It is hard to predict how the rest of the 2015-16 campaign will unfold for Toronto. The Leafs have shown signs of improvement throughout the month of November. And that can only raise one question: does front office look to stick with their roster, letting them mesh and hope for wins, or do they hope the trade value of their veterans (Lupul, Bozak) continues to go up as we head into trading season?
