Mark Turgeon’s first three years at Maryland were rough, to say the least. He was under a lot of fire before last season after going 17-15 during the 2013-14 season, and the program had not seemed to turn a corner. The fan base and university was desperately looking to get back to the glory days of Gary Williams’ tenure, which included a national championship in 2002.
Thankfully for Turgeon, his fourth season as the Terrapins head coach saw success that put questions of his job security on the back burner.
First of all, let’s give Maryland a little kudos for not freaking out after three very mediocre seasons from Turgeon. It is a very easy thing for programs to do, especially one’s that are in a power five conference and have expectations. To keep a guy like Turgeon around takes guts and common sense all at the same time.
It was a decision that would paid off for Maryland. In Turgeon’s fourth year, his Terrapins finished with a 28-7 overall record, which was good for a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Freshman point guard Melo Trimble was a very pleasant surprise, as was senior Dez Wells’ leadership and big play ability. Junior Jake Layman kept doing his job(s), while young guys like Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens both played vital roles to the team’s success.
Even though the team fell to a pesky West Virginia team in the NCAAs, the 2014-15 season proved to be a successful one for Maryland.
Successful seasons do bring expectations though, and expectations are through the roof for the upcoming season. Both the AP Poll and USA Today Coaches Poll have Maryland at No. 3 to start off the season. ESPN’s Power Ranking has them at No. 1, as does Seth Davis of CBSSports. Bleacher Report’s preseason rankings has the Terrapins at No. 4.
In short, it’s going to be a pressure packed season.
THE GOOD:
First, let’s take a closer look into what makes Maryland a popular top-five preseason pick.
The team’s success last year had a big part to do with point guard Melo Trimble, as he finished his year with a 25.0 usage percentage. He was a solid, four-star recruit out of high school, but he was not expected to be a major cog in Maryland’s turnaround in his first year. He slowly took the Big Ten conference — and country — by storm, though. Trimble plays with a lot of poise, especially for a young guard. His turnover percentage of 16.0 and an assist rate of 21.2 percent shows an ability to take care of the ball, while also being able to create chances for his teammates.
Trimble’s best attribute is getting to the free throw line, and that was a major factor in averaging about 16 points per game last season. He was first in the Big Ten (eighth in the country) in free throw attempts last year. His free throw rate (a number that indicates how many free throws a player shoots per every field goal he shoots) of .71 indicates that Trimble shoots about seven free throws for every 10 field goals he puts up, which means he gets fouled going to the basket A LOT. By shooting 86 percent from the free throw line, the point guard was able to score 36 percent of his total points from the foul line. He’s going to be a very valid candidate for 1st Team All-Big Ten this season.
Jake Layman is a senior forward that has a lot of skills on the perimeter and inside. He stands 6-9, but can spread the floor out really well at the same time. Many mistaken Layman as “just a shooter,” but he did a good job of getting to the basket last year, as his free throw rate rose and his three-point attempt rate went down from his sophomore year. He averaged 12.5 points per game, with 5.8 rebounds per game to go with it. The versatility that Layman provides is a big reason why the Terrapins had success last year.
Two big additions have the country giddy about Maryland as well. First, five-star center Diamond Stone has a lot of talent and was a big get for Turgeon and his staff. Stone, a top-ten recruit and McDonald’s All-American, can give the team a boost in muscle, as he has lots of it, even for a freshman. His defense and rebounding will be what helps Maryland most. Rasheed Sulaimon is an interesting story, as he was kicked off of the Duke basketball team last year by head coach Mike Krzyzewski, and landed at Maryland to play his senior year this season. Sulaimon is a quality secondary ball-handler and shooter. The graduate senior has talent, but fell out of Krzyzewski’s rotation as he saw less and less minutes per game from his freshman to junior year. It will be interesting to see how Turgeon uses a capable player like Sulaimon after a few frustrating years at Duke.
Role players like Damonte Dodd, Jared Nickens and Jaylen Brantley are also positive players for the Terrapins.
On the outside, Maryland has a great blend of talent and wisdom on this team. They’ll be pretty damn good. Are they going to be unstoppable? Not even close.
THE FLAWS:
What was the key to Maryland’s successful 28-7 season last year? Close wins, and lots of them.
A quick look at each conference win by less than ten points last year:
| Opponent | Score | Margin of Victory |
| Michigan State | 68-66 | 2 |
| Purdue | 69-60 | 9 |
| Rutgers | 73-65 | 8 |
| Northwestern | 68-67 | 1 |
| Penn State | 64-58 | 6 |
| Indiana | 68-66 | 2 |
| Penn State | 76-73 | 3 |
| Nebraska | 69-65 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | 59-53 | 6 |
| Nebraska | 64-61 | 3 |
| Indiana | 75-69 | 6 |
A quick look at each conference loss by less than ten points last year:
| Opponent | Score | Margin of Victory |
| Illinois | 57-64 | 7 |
| Michigan State | 58-62 | 4 |
And a quick look at each conference loss by more than ten points last year:
| Opponent | Score | Margin of Victory |
| Indiana | 70-89 | 19 |
| Ohio State | 56-80 | 24 |
| Iowa | 55-71 | 16 |
What this information can provide us is some knowledge of how lucky Maryland got in some of its games last year, as they won all their “close games” by an average of 4.5 points. Also, to win 85 percent of your “close games” is unheard of, as a team should really only win somewhere between 50-60 percent of them, according to research done by Jeff at Basketball Predictions.
If we gave Maryland the benefit of the doubt in those close games last year, and had them winning 55 percent of them, they would have only won seven games compared to eleven. That is four more games added to the losses column, which would theoretically bring the Terrapins season record to 24-11.
Would a team with double digit losses the previous year with one very good player (Trimble), a quality role player (Layman), and a five-star center (Stone) still garner a top-five preseason ranking from almost every site on the Internet? Probably not.
The other concern when looking closer at Maryland’s wins and losses was the amount of really bad losses they had. Three out of their five conference losses came by more than 15 points, a bad look for a top contender this season. Either Trimble or Layman had awful games in every one of those losses as well.
Maryland also lost one of their top players in Dez Wells, who was a senior last season that averaged 15.1 points per game and 5.3 rebounds per game. He was an efficient scorer by shooting the ball at a 46 percent clip (and hitting three-pointers at 51 percent rate, with 49 attempts on the season). He also sported a whopping 30.1 percent usage rating, which beats Trimble’s number by five points. The wing was a strong defender and rebounder, as well as being the only consistent performer in Maryland’s three big losses (albeit still playing pretty poorly). His presence and big play ability will certainly be missed. Overall, Wells’ contributions may be an underrated departure from the program.
A small argument can be made that the conference switch from the ACC to the Big Ten helped Maryland’s surprising season last year prosper. The difference between the two conferences is admittedly not big, as the Big Ten was right behind the ACC in both Strength of Schedule and the Simple Rating System.
That said, conference play is a huge part of any school’s college basketball season. Familiarity can play a role in how coaches game plan for a certain game, or how they practice their team leading up to a certain game. Knowing the basics of a coach’s sets or defensive schemes is a huge advantage to the other team. We are in the 21st century, sure, but every team in the Big Ten last season was tiptoeing into a game against a talented Maryland team.
How Diamond Stone and Rasheed Sulaimon ultimately impact the team is also up in the air, for now. Stone is a good talent that Turgeon picked up, but he is still a freshman in a tough conference. Sulaimon has been a streaky player at Duke, although the change of scenery should help him in the end.
Listen, Maryland is going to be a good team this year and they should win the Big Ten this season. Maryland’s basketball expectations are through the roof once again. A successful season in 2014-15 has led to high, high expectations for this year’s team. Do not let the preseason hype blind you, though; the team has serious flaws that could stifle their potential.
