It’s a massive week in College Football with a marquee top 5 matchup between LSU and Alabama under the lights, a battle of Big 12 undefeated teams between TCU and Oklahoma State, and the ACC and American conferences will have more clarity after Saturday as FSU and Clemson will battle for the ACC Atlantic, while Duke will cross the road and take on UNC in Chapel Hill for control of the ACC coastal. Navy travels to Memphis in the key American conference battle. Our experts John Bava, Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, and Mike Loveall are on hand to preview and predict those key matchups.
Duke at North Carolina (Saturday 11/7/15 12:00 P.M. EST in Chapel Hill, NC)
Line: North Carolina by 7.5
John:
Perhaps the biggest question heading into this game is whether or not Duke will be able to put what happened last Saturday against Miami behind them. The Blue Devils scored a go-ahead touchdown with only six seconds left, only to have the Canes return the ensuing kickoff 91 yards for the game-winning score after lateraling the ball eight times.
UNC, on the other hand, are certainly riding high at this point as arguably one of the ACC’s most surprising teams this season. At 7-1, The Tar Heels are off to their best start after eight games since 1997 after getting a 26-19 win on the road against Pittsburgh last Thursday. A win in this rivalry, which is much more well-known for its harshness on the hardwood than on the gridiron, and Carolina can put themselves in great position to win the ACC Coastal Division.
I think the after effects of that shocking loss to Miami carry over for Duke into this game, with the Tar Heels coming away with the Victory Bell for the second straight year.
Prediction: North Carolina 27, Duke 21
Steen:
As shocking of an ending as Duke experienced against Miami last week, it’s still important to remember they trailed for most of that game against a pedestrian Miami team starting their backup QB. QB Thomas Sirk and the Blue Devils have shown an ability to score, but against teams with more speed and talent, they tend to struggle simply due to lack of recruiting. UNC has scored 25+ in every game since a 17-13 opening game loss to rival South Carolina, with QB Marquise Williams and RB Elijah Hood, along with slot WR Ryan Switzer all great talents. Gene Chizik has done enough with the Tar Heel defense to get them just a couple of wins away from the ACC title game, and at home I see the Tar Heels winning this one, perhaps relatively comfortably.
Prediction: North Carolina 35, Duke 21
Yesh:
Duke is coming off an absolutely heartbreaking loss to Miami. And they should be upset coming into this one. They don’t have the speed to match up with the Tar Heel receivers, but Duke has done an incredible job of neutralizing opponents’ speed the past few years. The Blue Devils will be out for blood, and what better place to do it than a rivalry game (even if it is the wrong sport)?
Prediction: Duke 27, North Carolina 21
Mike:
The big question in this game is how will Duke respond after one of the worst robberies in the history of college football? Will they bounce back with resolve or did the Tobacco Road Smoke Job take the air out of the Blue Devil’s season? Meanwhile, North Carolina is coming off of one of its best offensive performances of the season. North Carolina is on a steady upward trend, but David Cutliffe is nothing but consistent at Duke. With the ACC Coastal Division title pretty much on the line in this game, look for the Duke to bounce back and take the title – but not by much. This game will go down to the wire.
Prediction: Duke 31, North Carolina 28
#16 Florida State at #1 Clemson (Saturday 11/7/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Clemson, SC)
Line: Clemson by 10.5
John:
The first College Football Playoff selection committee rankings of the season came out Tuesday, with Clemson emerging as the number one team in the nation. It’s the first time the Tigers have been at the top of a major poll since their national championship season of 1981. Head coach Dabo Swinney has this program approaching heights it hasn’t seen in a generation.
Standing in their way this weekend is a Florida State team that has proved quite the nemesis in recent years. Though the roles are reversed this season with Clemson as the clear favorite, the Tigers haven’t beaten the Seminoles since 2011 and were embarrassed the last time they hosted FSU in 2013.
The Noles could be missing key players on offense heading into this game. Quarterback Everett Golson missed last week’s win against Syracuse due to a concussion and it’s possible coach Jimbo Fisher could go with Sean Maguire once again. Running back Dalvin Cook, who already has over 1,000 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns, left the Syracuse game with an ankle injury, but is expected to play on Saturday.
I think a stout Clemson defensive front, led by defensive linemen Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd who’ve combined for 11 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss on the year, limits the effectiveness of what could be a depleted FSU offense.
Prediction: Clemson 45, Florida State 28
Steen:
This game will come down to Clemson’s ability to focus against a rival with (at this point) nothing to lose, and FSU avoiding getting off to a slow start and having to dig out of a hole. The Tigers are fast on both sides of the ball, with a good pass rush, an All-American quality QB in DeShaun Watson, who has great targets to throw to. FSU has a good running game given Dalvin Cook will play with a weeks rest, and a relatively solid defensive unit that gets back a couple of injured starters this week, along with a great kicker. If Everett Golson starts, he’ll need to get off to a good start, otherwise look for Jimbo Fisher to call on Sean Maguire, who was a deep threat QB last week, and beat Clemson last year as a spot starter.
The loss to Georgia Tech seems to have freed FSU up a bit to find their identity, and long term this game isn’t going to determine the program rankings in the ACC, though it’s a huge test for Dabo Swinney to prove he’s the real deal. I could see this game being a Clemson blowout if FSU stumbles, but I’m going to call a close Clemson win as they have superior talent, and coaching this season.
Prediction: Clemson 38, FSU 31
Yesh:
Clemson has been very good for a few years now, but there has always been a Florida State-sized hurdle in their way. The Tigers are one of the best teams in the country and they get their toughest game in Death Valley. People are reading too much into Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech. This Seminole team is still talented. And this 12-point line is way too high.
Prediction: Clemson 24, Florida State 20
Mike:
This is it. This is the moment Clemson fans have been waiting for for years. This is where Clemson wrests control of the ACC away from Florida State, who’s owned this conference since they started competing in football in 1992 (other than the 2006-2011 interregnum). This has all the hallmarks for another Clemson style letdown. But I think this is the year that Clemson gets it done. Their defense is almost as good as Florida State’s, they have a better, more dynamic quarterback, FSU’s top player is playing banged up, and Clemson has momentum and big game experience. This will be closer than people expect, but Clemson finds a way to pull it out late.
Prediction: Clemson 31, Florida 24
#8 TCU at #14 Oklahoma State (Saturday 11/7/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Stillwater, OK)
Line: TCU by 4.5
John:
It should not come as a surprise if both these teams eclipse the 50-point plateau on Saturday, having done so a combined eight times this year. TCU ranks second nationally in scoring offense (48.9) while Oklahoma State are seventh (44) and the two teams boast prolific offenses averaging over 500 total yards per game.
Horned Frog quarterback Trevone Boykin continues to remain in the thick of the Heisman conversation. When you combine his production through the air and on the ground, he’s accounted for 3,451 yards (third best in FBS) and 34 total touchdowns (28 pass, 6 rush). Oh, and he’s also averaging the eighth most rushing yards per game in the Big 12.
For all the talk of the poor defensive play in this conference, these two schools have plenty of talented players on that side of the ball. Of particular interest is Cowboy defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, who’s currently fifth nationally in sacks with nine and and ninth in tackles for loss with 13.5. If Ogbah and the Poke pass rush can effectively get pressure on Boykin, they may be able to slow down TCU’s high-powered offense.
I think the Frogs should firmly be on upset alert this weekend. In two of their three Big 12 road games, they’ve won by an average of five points and needed and end of game touchdown to upend Texas Tech in the conference opener 55-52. If they’re not careful, they may not be so lucky in Stillwater on Saturday.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 51, TCU 49
Steen:
Whether Mason Rudolph or J.W. Walsh is piloting the Cowboys offense, they can score a wide variety of ways as this will surely be another Big 12 shootout. WR James Washington is an exciting player to watch for the Cowboys as well and be burned Texas Tech last week. Trevone Boykin and TCU have to get through both Oklahoma schools to win this conference, and the good news for them is that the Horned Frogs have demonstrated an improving defense since surrendering 45 to Kansas State a few weeks ago. It should be close for a while, but look for TCU to eventually pull away with a few key defensive stops.
Prediction: TCU 55, Oklahoma State 42
Yesh:
I still don’t get how Oklahoma State is undefeated. They are resilient and have a ton of heart, but they just don’t have the talent on defense to hang with the Horned Frogs. The Cowboys put up 70 on Texas Tech, but they might have to put up the same number on TCU to win this game. TCU’s defense might be hurting, but they’re not that bad.
Prediction: TCU 56, Oklahoma State 35
Mike:
Oklahoma State may have used up all of their allotted points for the season last week in their come-from-behind win against Texas Tech. Meanwhile, TCU’s defense turned in a very quiet yet stellar performance against a high-scoring West Virginia team. I think the ‘Pokes are good this year, but I’m not sure that the team is ready to handle being undefeated nor am I confident that they’re ready to win a big game with college football playoff ramifications. Boykin and company have struggled at times this year, notable against Minnesota and Texas Tech early, but they’re quietly getting in rhythm. TCU stakes their claim as a top-6 team with a take down of Oklahoma State in Stillwater.
Prediction: TCU 49, Oklahoma State 34
Navy at #13 Memphis (Saturday 11/7/15 7:00 P.M. EST in Memphis, TN)
Line: Memphis by 7.5
John:
Memphis enters this game as the highest ranked Group of Five team in the first CFP selection committee rankings, coming in at 13th. As long as they keep winning, the Tigers are a virtual lock to get selected to a New Year’s Six bowl. And who knows? If chaos reigns in front of them and they finish the regular season unbeaten, their double-digit win over Ole Miss earlier in the season could enable them to sneak into this year’s national semifinals.
First things first. Navy and their vaunted triple option attack comes to the Liberty Bowl on Saturday in the first-ever meeting between the two schools. The Midshipmen currently stand at 6-1 with their only blemish on the season coming against fifth-ranked Notre Dame. Dual threat quarterback Keenan Reynolds has a chance to break former Wisconsin running back Montee Ball’s career rushing touchdown record. The two are currently tied with 77.
Despite being unbeaten, Memphis has been plagued by slow starts. In two of their last four games, they’ve surrendered a combined 23 points to start the game only to score 65 unanswered themselves. The latest example was against Tulane last week, when they fell behind 13-0 early only to win the game 41-13.
Memphis will win this game if Paxton Lynch can continue to put up big numbers while continuing to avoid mistakes. He has just one interception on the year so it’s no surprise he’s beginning to generate interest regarding his potential at the next level. The Tiger defense will also need to figure out a way to slow down a Navy rushing offense averaging 319.7 yards per game. The good thing is that they’re one of the better teams in the nation at stopping the run, ranking 22nd nationally.
Prediction: Memphis 48, Navy 38
Steen:
An AAC style clash, Navy will look to chew the clock and control possession with their option run offense, and Keenan Reynolds is an experienced captain for their battleship. The Navy defense is also a flexible unit as they haven’t given up more than 21 in any of their six wins this season. Memphis puts the ball in the air and the athletic Paxton Lynch is fantastic at spreading the ball around to his receiving targets. This Tigers defense isn’t great, having given up 40+ three times, but they get the job done and Memphis is still in the hunt to go undefeated as a result. Playing at home in the Liberty Bowl should help Justin Fuente’s Tigers, and I see them pulling this one out as long as Lynch maximizes their scoring chances.
Prediction: Memphis 35, Navy 28
Yesh:
Memphis debuted at #13 in the committee rankings, three whole spots higher than Ohio State started last year. This is their chance for another quality win, against a Navy team that has only lost to Top 5 Notre Dame. If you don’t know the name Keenan Reynolds yet, you probably should. He’ll make this very interesting.
Prediction: Memphis 37, Navy 34
Mike:
While Memphis is getting all the attention, Navy is sitting at 6-1 in the American Athletic Conference and their lone loss is to CFP-ranked #5 Notre Dame. They also happen to have the all-time NCAA record holder for rushing touchdowns in a career running their offense in quarterback Keenan Reynolds. This game is a contrast in styles as the Midshipmen will run the triple option and Memphis will spread ‘em out and throw the ball with Paxton Lynch. But Memphis will not have seen a time as tough or a team that executes as well as Navy this season. This is my upset prediction of the week, as Navy comes into Memphis and torpedoes Memphis’ New Year’s Six hopes.
Prediction: Navy 35, Memphis 31
#2 LSU at #4 Alabama (Saturday 11/7/15 8:00 P.M. EST in Tuscaloosa, AL)
Line: Alabama by 7
John:
Both these teams found themselves ranked in the top four of the CFP committee’s first rankings of the year. As such, one is highly likely to be on the outside looking in next week.
The two SEC West rivals who’ve consistently been the class of the conference tend to always play each other close. The average margin of victory in seven of the last eight games between the Crimson Tide and the Tigers has been 5.57 points. Alabama has a 4-3 record in those contests, with three having gone to overtime. Are we in store for similar fireworks in Tuscaloosa Saturday night?
One thing’s for sure: this game will feature the two best running backs in the SEC. LSU’s Leonard Fournette continues to lead the nation in rushing yards per game (193) by a wide margin. The next best player, FSU’s Dalvin Cook is averaging 148. Bama’s Derrick Henry is currently second in the conference behind Fournette, having picked up just over 130 yards per game himself.
Expect ground and pound to be the name of the game with these two prolific runners combined with two quarterbacks in the Tigers’ Brandon Harris and the Tide’s Jacob Coker who haven’t exactly lit things up. That said, both defenses rank in the top six in rushing yards allowed. Something has to give and this has all the makings of a knock down, drag out slugfest under the lights in Tuscaloosa.
Prediction: Alabama 20, LSU 17
Steen:
These two SEC West giants are built very similarly, with strong physical defenses, game managing QB’s, and star running backs that are near locks to have big games every week, not to mention the wily coaches on the sideline in Les Miles and Nick Saban. Bama has had the upper hand in the West in recent years, but I see the script flipping this time. The Tide have struggled against Tennessee, and Arkansas, and lost at home to Ole Miss this season. The key to stopping their running game is a physical collapsing defense, something LSU has. Leonard Fournette and Brandon Harris should combine to get the job done on the other side, and though it won’t be a shootout, look for the Mad Hatter to prevail and push LSU forwards towards the SEC title, Bama isn’t as good as people seem to think, though this game will be quite close.
Prediction: LSU 24, Alabama 21
Yesh:
Somehow this Alabama/LSU game always seems to matter. The winner of this game will probably be #1 in the committee’s next rankings, though Alabama does have that loss to Ole Miss weighing it down. But that might not matter much after this week anyway. Both defenses will be very good at shutting down their opponent’s strength in this game. Neither team should be able to run very well, which means this will be a battle of untested quarterbacks to win. The team that makes the fewer mistakes, and the team that has the better field goal kicker, should win this one. In both of those categories, I think it’s advantage LSU.
Prediction: LSU 16, Alabama 10
Mike:
LSU and Alabama playing in November with championship implications? Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Remember, Alabama’s last two national championships came after suffering a regular season loss. Look for Jake Coker to be the difference here. LSU’s quarterback play is still shaky, and the Tigers haven’t been tested as much or as often as the Crimson Tide. Leonard Fournette will get his yards and score a couple of touchdowns, but look for Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart – who will be head coach somewhere (Looking at you Georgia) next season – to force LSU to beat Alabama through the air. The Tide offense does enough to win this game and throw the SEC’s playoff hopes in serious jeopardy.
Prediction: Alabama 28, LSU 20
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