Many of us will have marked down the date of October 31st 2015 in their calendars a long time ago. Looking forward to it, with good fortune we will see another scintillating match in the epoch of rugby history, as the Rugby World Cup Countdown clock ticks closer.
Being played at Twickenham, London on Saturday afternoon, this has been called one of the best World Cup events and in today’s modern age, the reach of this International tournament will be unfathomable. In newsprint, radio, through social media and in the voices of rugby fans spread across the globe, it truly is a global game in 2015.
You most certainly know the two teams that have reached their respective fourth Rugby World Cup (RWC) finals matches. They have won previously:
- New Zealand – 1987, 1995 and 2011
- Australia – 1991, 1999, 2003
The facts are that the first clash in rugby union between Australia and New Zealand took place in a test match on 15 August 1903 in Sydney, New South Wales. On that occasion, New Zealand won by 22-3 and these sides have played each other 154 times since that day. In one of the more storied histories in the Southern Hemisphere, a proud heritage underlines the 2015 final and some of the more memorable games of World Rugby have involved these two sides.
Amazingly, with both sides having won two titles each, this is the first encounter in an RWC final; the two sides met in semifinal games in 1999 and in 2011. Great rivals on the pitch as much as across the Tasman Sea, a close rivalry is built on respect, familiarity and mateship. Friends and rivals, the close nature of the teams is due to them contesting in regular competition.
In a knock-out match, the outcome is more one sided. Win, and you are deserving of moving further in a tournament or towards a World Championship crown in this case. That is a huge prize, and with such familiarity the sides will very much know their adversaries. The All Blacks treasure the Bledisloe Cup series, with a reliance on Trans Tasman matches to set themselves for an attempt at winning away from home.
Measuring our games, the players know each other, in Super Rugby and in The Rugby Championship (which the Wallabies won in 2015) The contest will have many factors which are equal, with only the combined experience and rugby knowledge of the New Zealand players placing them in the ascendancy.
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
The play makers in both sides must be at the forefront. That means for Australia, Bernard Foley must direct his backline well, as will Dan Carter. The Waratahs player will faceoff against his Crusaders opponent, and while in Super Rugby the ‘Blues’ might have the wood over their ‘Red and Black’ mates, in representative colours, Carter will be the Master.
One holds the current World’s record for test points, but every player has his day and to his credit, Carter has revived a waning recent history. He has become stronger in his position due to sustained pressure externally and his good preparation and natural ability. If Foley wants to match his talents against any player, his fellow first-five will test his game.
The number eight role will be a critical element in the final, with Kieran Read already voted as International Player of the Year in 2013, he will be wanting to continue his improving game. Across from him will be Sam Fardy, a credible challenger, not yet in the same mold but growing in his position, especially as the loose forwards for Australia have been selected in a strategy of playing two open-side flankers. Fardy compliments the gameplan, so in the loose he will be as important as David Pocock and Michael Hooper are. Or that Jerome Kaino and Richie McCaw are.
The tight game will be key, with the front row a telling encounter. A returning Scott Sio might have a hand [or elbow] in this final. After injury, what bigger match would you want to test your fitness in–an RWC final. He must be confident, even as his front-row square up against their Kiwi counterparts. Loosehead prop Sio will likely look across at the much fresher and more enthusiastic Joe Moody and Dane Coles will eye him up. If under pressure, an substituion is made; due to injury or planned, the skillset of the All Black front row will be utilized.
Coles’ try in Auckland was one ‘out of the box’. The ability he had to reach full speed and sustain that pace, swerve to beat Adam Ashley-Cooper; no slouch, in a footrace was the most impressive forwards try since Sean Fitzpatrick perfected the wingers try. Coles, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, they each will be at the heart of the New Zealand game. Their equals will need to be a peak performance. Whitelock’s ability to steal ball, which Read is the best exponent of, was critical over the Springboks.
CHANGE IN TACTICS
We may not see as much of that sideline kicking that was employed successfully by the New Zealand team. The All Blacks used that tactic well but if repeated, it might seem quite methodical. Being able to adapt is a modern skill that players like Matt Giteau has shown over a career that almost saw him lost to the Australian game. Only through a law change could he qualify, Wallaby management were so confident they invested in a bet on [themselves] Sports betting agency
The game is so studied today, we can isolate common moves and set-ups that appear repeated. In observation, one formation the ‘men in black’ now use is the forwards running up in patterns of two. A late choice is then made in feeding the ball runner and it can result in an open channel Sonny Bill Williams can also be used in this role too, due to his world-class offloading ability.
The hope is that Julian Savea or Nehe Milner-Skudder will benefit too from assisting positional play. It could work well, provided the potential up-and-under is countered by good takes of the ball. McCaw, Kaino and the midfield will all contribute and on the other side, the Aussie locks and flankers will be quick to any loose ball.
And finally, from the position of fullback for the All Blacks and for Australia, are Ben Smith and Israel Folau. Two real game breakers with incredible abilities to read the game. On their day, they possess a likely five to ten points in them. Admired by most nations, Wales were definitely missing Leigh Halfpenny and for the two finalists, they would too miss the services of either fullback. A fully operating back three is paramount to success.
If Folau is fully fit, he might just be the point of difference. Young, multi-skilled, he is a ‘Super athlete’. Carries the ball well but his ability to catch the ball on the run is second to none, and that includes Ben Smith. While Smith is my nomination for World Rugby Player of the Year. Folau is not far off. For him, Folau could dramatically gain on Smith with success here. His kicking ability will be a weapon or, it could be a weakness if not fit.
THANK YOU TO THE HOSTS
Let nobody think that the antipodeans were rude in not accepting the hospitality of the England Rugby Union. Fans and rugby purists all compliment the 2015 home crowds and supporters. Kudos for the RWC spirit of competition which was intense, none more so than in Pool A.
To be removed from the qualifying rounds was unparalleled, but the host nation have been gracious and thoughtful. When playing Australia, they were beaten soundly and it was just not meant to be. Others have progressed, including the Kiwi team.
Going for back-to-back World Championships. Twice as hard, than to only have achieved one cup triumph every eight to twelve years. The ability to sustain a performance is almost entirely in the All Blacks favour. Statistically, in the current World Rugby rankings and in looking at the recent past, the All Blacks must be in an ideal position to continue form–but form is fleeting.
The bounce of the rugby ball can never be guaranteed, so each side will have their moment to become Legend, or be vanquished.
For people that I have spoken to, they just hope that this final match captures everything that is good in rugby. The complete example of our wonderful game. And possibly tries scored, that would be brilliant (in a final the ability to gain points is paramount)
Defence will be crucial and then the ability to convert chances will see the winner home. If it were Ma’a Nonu or Keven Mealamu who fate saw make a huge play to win the game, then fans could send those two All Black legends, along with their teamates into the realm of folklore. Two-time Rugby World Cup champions.
The moments, the opportunities you might say. In 80 minutes of rugby, these are fleeting chances. A test of each sides abilities, of each captains leadership role, of each Coach’s management of their squads. It will be an occasion. A credit to rugby, to the ideals of the game, so I for one will be looking ahead to 16:00 GMT on October 31st, 2015.
“I cannot wait. Bring it on.”
________________________________________________
Scott Hornell is Editor for Rugby South, Last Word On Sports.
“Main photo”
