Georgia-Florida: The “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.” This year’s matchup marks the first time since 2012 both teams enter with a chance to take control in the SEC East. The 2012 Georgia Bulldogs, who were 6-1 (0-1 SEC) entering the game against an undefeated Florida Gators team looking to claim its first SEC East title since 2009, won 17-9 in a defensive struggle. Though Florida went 11-1 (7-1 SEC) in the regular season, Georgia’s head-to-head win sent them to the SEC Championship game against Alabama.
This season Florida has a chance to take a commanding lead in the SEC East. With a win in Jacksonville, every other SEC East team would have at least three losses, all but clinching a spot for Florida in the SEC Championship game. Georgia has a lot at stake entering Saturday’s game. They are looking for revenge from last year’s Georgia-Florida game, a 38-20 drubbing that cost Georgia a return trip to the SEC Championship game. They can also jump into the SEC East driver’s seat with a win over Florida by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s very possible the Georgia-Florida winner will represent the SEC East in Atlanta on December 5.
Anything can happen in a rivalry game. Here are five things Georgia needs to do to win on Saturday:
1. Win the battle in the trenches
With the recent struggles of quarterback Greyson Lambert against strong defenses, Georgia will need to win the battle in the trenches to open up its powerful running game. Yes, the Bulldogs are still coping with the loss of star running back Nick Chubb, but running backs Sony Michel, Keith Marshall and Brendan Douglas have all shown the ability to churn out yardage. Florida’s rush defense is ranked 21st in the country, allowing just 116.6 yards per game on the ground, and a measly 3.46 yards per carry. Georgia’s offensive line, which is an underrated strength of the team, will need to open up holes for its stable of running backs to help take the pressure off Lambert. Last week against the LSU Tigers, the Gators allowed 180 yards rushing and two touchdowns to running back Leonard Fournette, but Fournette is in a class of his own. Tennessee Volunteers’ running back Jalen Hurd also eclipsed 100 rushing yards against Florida, but he needed 28 carries to do so. On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s defensive line cannot afford a performance like last year against Florida, where the unit gave up 197 yards to running back Kelvin Taylor and 192 yards to running back Matt Jones. Georgia ranks 25th in the country in rush defense, allowing 120.9 yards per game. They’ll have their hands full against Taylor, who has eight rushing touchdowns this season.
2. Protect Greyson Lambert
Nothing helps a defense gain confidence more than forcing negative plays. Georgia needs to be diligent in pass protection against a Florida Gators team that ranks in the top 20 in team sacks with 21 sacks. Georgia has only allowed eight sacks this season, which ranks in the top 20 nationally. In fact, one thing with which Georgia has done an impressive job all season is avoiding negative plays on offense, allowing just 25 tackles for loss all season – tied for fourth nationally. With protection, Lambert has shown an ability to pick apart a defense, but his completion percentage has plummeted from September to October (76.5 percent vs. 54.5 percent) as the competition has gotten tougher. Lambert will need to feel comfortable in the pocket for Georgia to have any chance at establishing an effective passing game against a solid passing defense allowing just under 200 yards per game.
3. Don’t let Treon Harris run
Florida quarterback Treon Harris is a dual-threat quarterback, much like Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs – who the Bulldogs struggled to defend before the bye week. Georgia’s defense allowed him to run for 118 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. It is imperative for Georgia to avoid letting Harris get outside the pocket. LSU did a good job last week bringing pressure, sacking Harris five times and only allowing him 20 rushing yards on 13 carries. Georgia defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt and his squad would be smart to watch the tape from that game. Harris is making just his ninth career start, but already holds a win over Georgia – though he was just a game manager in last year’s game, completing 3-of-6 passes for 27 yards in Florida’s romp over the Bulldogs. Georgia’s secondary would like a shot at Harris this year, as they have allowed just 187 passing yards per game this season, ranking 26th nationally. Though Harris has thrown no interceptions this season, in a game of this intensity, if he gets rattled and can’t effectively get involved in the running game, he is bound to make a mistake – at least that is what Georgia will be hoping.
4. Force Florida to attempt field goals
Florida is typically known for having dynamic players on special teams and a solid field goal kicker. This season, that’s not the case. The Gators lost kicker Jorge Powell for the season due to a leg injury he suffered against LSU. Kicker Austin Hardin has been dealing with a hip or hamstring injury over the past couple weeks, and is questionable to play against Georgia. Even if he does play, Hardin is just 3-for-6 on field goals this season, missing his last three from inside 40 yards. During the bye week, Florida held open tryouts to add some depth at the position. In all, 216 students reportedly signed up for the open tryout, and Florida tried out 77 kickers. Regardless of whether any of these students make the roster, it’s safe to say Florida head coach Jim McElwain would prefer not to attempt any field goals, and this facet of the game could be a huge advantage for Georgia.
5. Avoid the turnover bug
Florida has forced 14 turnovers in seven games, and have only lost five for a plus-nine turnover margin – tied for fifth nationally. The Gators’ defense swarms to the ball, and makes plays. Georgia has lost nine turnovers (four against Alabama) and have just 10 takeaways for a mediocre plus-one turnover margin. Last season’s Georgia defense played opportunistic football, notching a plus-16 turnover margin, by far their best performance in that category in years. Georgia cannot afford to give Florida extra possessions on Saturday, and turnovers could be the difference between a win and a loss for the Bulldogs.
PREDICTION:
Georgia-Florida is always a high-intensity battle of two rivals that plain hate each other. There will be no trouble getting hyped up for this one, especially with control in the SEC East up for grabs. The most worrisome thing for Georgia fans is Greyson Lambert’s effectiveness against top-tier defenses. Take a look at his numbers against teams that rank in the top 20 in scoring defense this season:
- Missouri (fifth-ranked scoring defense): 23-for-32, 178 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception
- Vanderbilt (13th-ranked scoring defense): 11-for-21, 116 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions
- Alabama (14th-ranked scoring defense): 10-for-24, 86 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception
See a pattern? Lambert has a lot of work to do this week in practice to try and improve against a Florida defense ranked 19th in scoring defense. No, Georgia does not need Lambert to be Tom Brady for them to have a chance in this game, but they at least need him to have the ability to move an offense through the air to open up the run game. After witnessing how Georgia played against Alabama and Missouri in the month of October, Georgia fans may need to brace for another rough Georgia-Florida weekend in Jacksonville.
Florida 21, Georgia 10
Main Photo
