The NBA Western Conference is always competitive and this year will be much the same. Each team has several factors that will go a long way in determining if they are bottom-feeding or in the chase for a coveted playoff spot. Presenting Western Conference Best and Worst Case Scenarios:
Houston Rockets
Best case: James Harden wins that MVP award he wanted so badly last year. He goes on a revenge tour against the best of the West all season with a few triple-doubles mixed in. Harden also gets his boys—Dwight Howard and Terrance Jones, who missed a combined 99 games last season—to miss less than 50 combined games, and it results in the one seed. Add in Patrick Beverly and Donatas Motiejunas, who both missed the playoffs, and this team takes that step forward from Western Conference finalists, to NBA finalists, As Howard puts in seven games of vintage Dwight the Rockets are your NBA champions.
Worst case: Dwight Howard, who is now 30 and coming off of back surgery and knee surgery, just cannot muster up enough to put in a full season. Motiejunas proves he is better in the bench role and doesn’t take that step forward. The addition of Ty Lawson turns into an off court fiasco, and him and Harden never seem to gel. This team grinds through the regular season and find themselves in the six seed with no Howard, and two other injuries, and they just so happen to see Oklahoma City. Harden gets swept out by his old teammates as they get the ring before he does in Houston.
Memphis Grizzlies
Best Case: Marc Gasol lives up to his $100 million contract in year one. He puts up another first team all pro season, gets some MVP votes and Memphis quietly enters the playoffs. Somehow this team seems to have San Antonios’ number in the playoffs, and after being up 2-1 against Golden State last year, a healthier Mike Conley has a much better series and this team finishes the job against the Warriors. The momentum leads into a duel with the Cavaliers and the Grizzlies, with defense and a healthy roster pull of the upset, shock the world and win an NBA title.
Worst Case: Memphis learns the downfall of giving a 30-year-old maximum money. Injuries seem to be the story of the season, and Memphis seems to find themselves in a tough place. Add to that Zach Randolph now at 34, is not able to put in the nightly work and Memphis seems much easier on the glass. With the Thunder back in the mix, and teams like the Suns, Jazz and even the Kings being competitive the Grizzlies have to fight until the last night for the eight seed. Losing and missing the playoffs, with a team built around two aging big men, and a draft pick that is heading to Denver. All of the sudden, the “wink, wink” Conley extension turns into buzz that he is would like to test the market.
San Antonio Spurs
Best case: Tim Duncan is Tim Duncan, and Kawhi Leonard is not only in the defensive player of the year discussion, his 20 points per game are now bringing MVP talk. The LaMarcus Aldridge signing takes two games until he fits right in. Guys like Patty Mills, and second year Kyle Anderson get this team to wis as Greg Popovich rests the studs for the post season. Tony Parker misses twenty games but is healthy for the post season and the Spurs just roll. Tim Duncan gets his sixth ring, and Leonard gets finals MVP #2. Duncan and Ginobilli go out on top while Aldridge, Leonard, and Danny Green leave the franchise in good hands.
Worst-case: That whole thing about how Parker-Ginobilli-Duncan can’t last forever is actually true. All of them struggle through the season with injuries. Green doesn’t take a step forward, and Leonard feels the need to differ to Aldridge too much. The Spurs find themselves in the post season and mightily banged up. A strong punch is thrown, but in the end it is not enough and their season ends in round one for the second straight season.
Dallas Mavericks
Best Case: Deron Williams becomes a good basketball player again! Dirk Nowitzki, now in a limited role is hitting all kinds of shots again. Wes Matthews and Chandler Parsons do not miss as much time as expected, Justin Anderson becomes a nice rotation player as a rookie, and the Mavericks find themselves back in the playoffs. They play up the under dog role, and Nowitzki has one big playoff game in him and they pull out a first round upset. Williams is happy to play for his hometown team and being effective the Mavs work out a deal to give them some hope for next year.
Worst Case: Deron Williams is who he has been for the past three years, and Rick Carlisle finds himself feuding with a point guard for the second straight year. Parsons needs surgery half way through the season, and Matthews never quite seems recovered from Achilles surgery. Nowitzki somehow manages to get his team enough wins to be decent, but nothing close to the playoffs. They find enough wins to get the eigth pick in the draft, a pick that outside of 7, would go to Boston.
New Orleans Pelicans
Best case: Anthony Davis is the MVP in a landslide. He is basically pronounced the best player in the NBA, and now the uproar of Lebron James’ apologists become “Davis doesn’t have rings.” A relatively healthy Jrue Holiday is able to give 60 games of play, as well as guys like Eric Gordon and Tyrieke Evans being healthy and effective at the same time. Davis carries this team to a home playoff series, and his first series win. In round 2, this team takes the eventual NBA champion to seven games, and the pundits begin to argue all summer that this was their toughest out of the season.
Worst Case: The health and depth of this team just destroys them from the top down. Davis does what Davis does, but no one can stay healthy and the he can only carry the team to so many wins. Teams like the Thunder, Suns, and Jazz all of the sudden leave them on the outside looking in for the playoffs. Davis is good enough that they do not get a top ten pick, and the narrative becomes that Davis cannot be in MVP consideration on a team outside of the playoffs.
Portland Trailblazers:
Best case: Damian Lillard has a two week span of real MVP talk, and the combination of him and CJ McCollum becomes a feared duo in the back court. Guys like Meyers Leonard and Mason Plumlee come along, as well 20-year old Noah Vonleh and this team finds themselves as the eight seed in a tough Western conference. With the frontcourt depth and a big win from Lillard they take one game in a first round exit. With an average starting lineup of age 25 they get the experience for a run next year.
Worst case: The team is average, and not nearly good enough to make a playoff seed. Meyers Leonard still cannot beat out Chris Kaman for minutes, McCollum cannot beat Gerald Henderson for minutes, and the bench as a whole is giving nothing. Lillard has some frustrations, misses games but in the last two weeks has a big run of games that propels them from the second pick in the draft to the eighth, and all of the fans complain that he was even playing.
Thunder:
Best case: Billy Donavan fits like a glove. Kevin Durant clearly likes him, he creates spacing with his frontcourt rotations and the team is on fire. Kevin Durant is happy, but also out to prove himself from a year out and clearly does. Teammate Russell Westbrook, as well as Durant finish in the top five in MVP, but Durant nabs his second. Serge Ibaka is a legitimate three-point threat, and rookie Cameron Payne is getting crunch time minutes next to Westbrook. The depth and top-heavy talent propel this team through an incredible run that ends in a title.
Worst Case: Donavan and Durant get off to rocky start. One of Durant, Ibaka, and Westbrook seem to be always be out and it begins to like 2014 déjà us’. Enes Kanter cannot play defense, Steven Adams cannot play offense, and the team struggles to find the fit next to Ibaka. The Thunder, fighting for that eight seed, get it, but in the top heavy West, a still injured team cannot get past the first round. It becomes apparent through body language Durant is going to test the market this offseason, and some decisions Donavan made in the playoffs have the media questioning his hire.
Utah Jazz
Best case: The team that went 19-10 after trading Enes Kanter is the same team you get in 2015. Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward make the all-star game, and this team is one of the best defensive teams in all of basketball. The Jazz will go up and down the standings throughout the season and find themselves in the six seed by years end. It brings a tough draw, but they bring a tough out and lose on the road in a tight game seven. The team now has a healthy Dante Exum to look forward to next year and experience as a whole around him.
Worst case: The Jazz just cannot seem to gel. There is a revolving door at guard, they seem to miss Exum on the defensive end and the team finds themselves struggling to get over .500. Gobert doesn’t take a step forward on the offensive end, and the Jazz find themselves chasing the eight seed all season. They end up picking 14th, which would have felt a lot better with at least four playoff games.
Denver Nuggets
Best case: Fans cannot decide what move was better, the hiring of Mike Malone, or the drafting of Emmanuelle Mudiay. Mudiay wins the rookie of they year, and has this team in the mix for a part of this season. Kenneth Faired has a big year playing center in small lineups and we all remember he was on team USA in the 2014 World Cup. Despite missing the playoffs, they find themselves with a lot to look forward to. They then hit ultimate draft pick trade parlay. They get to swap picks with the Knicks, who happened to deal Carmelo Anthony and cannot get out of their way as they finish in the bottom five, Memphis missing the playoffs gets them pick 14, and Portland making the playoffs gives them pick 15, and this is combined with Houstons’ first no matter what. Farfetched, but combined with rookie Mudiay there would be an instant core, or trade up scenarios.
Worst case: Mudiay seems to realize China is a lot different than the NBA. Turnovers become a problem, and seeing Justice Winslow get big minutes in Miami only hurts worse. Guys like Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried are dealt mid season, and the team is in full on rebuild mode. The pick swap with New York renders meaningless, and Memphis and Portland hold on to their first round picks. Another year of struggling to find free agents is on, but at least they have another lottery pick.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
Best case: The T-Wolves realize early on they hit the jackpot. Karl Anthony-Towns added to Andrew Wiggins becomes super stars in the making and the T-Wolves sneak up on a few teams and win a couple more games than expected. The lessons of a veteran Kevin Garnett prove to be the most valuable things those two learn, and his presence seems to make this team better. The playoffs are not in store, but this is not the bottom dwelling T-Wolves we knew.
Worst case: Karl Anthony-Towns is a rookie and does rookie things. He struggles to find minutes through the first half of the season and is making mistakes throughout the second half. Wiggins has his ups, but definitely has his downs. He doesn’t have the great shot, and between him and Rubio there are spacing issues. Despite all of that, the team gets hot for a little bit, and inexplicably see themselves picking twelfth. They happen to have a pick protected 1-12 that would go to Boston. The waiting game has to go at least one more year in Minnesota.
Golden State Warriors:
Best case: The team that was the one seed, won the championship and brought everyone back seems to be passed over by the media through the season. The Warriors just win, and win, and win, and put up 68 wins, one more than their total last season. The Warriors are going to start getting dynasty talk, as the team breezes though, the West, and in what may seem like a redemption series against the Cavs, the Warriors, now with finals experience, beat the healthy Cavaliers, with Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving to claim back to back championships
Worst case: A lot of the Warriors seemed to have enjoyed their offseason of being the champions. Luke Walton, subbing Steve Kerr has ups and downs, and it causes a slow start. The Warriors find themselves back in the middle of the West again jockeying for position. Somehow the Warriors draw the Spurs, the team everyone said they didn’t want to face last year, and the Spurs show them why in 2016. Fingers start to get pointed when a defending champion is out in the first round, and people are calling for a fluke. What was once a solid core sees a few guys looking to get out.
Los Angelas Clippers:
Best Case: Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are on a redemption tour after their choke in the playoffs last season. Paul is a sneaky MVP candidate, and finally wins one. Lance Stephenson in a new role with Doc Rivers brings out the best and the exceeded depth compared to last year gets them through tough times and to the one seed. The addition of Pierce includes a couple of post season buzzer beaters, and Pierce goes out on top, beating his former rival Lebron James in the NBA finals. Paul also wins finals MVP and solidifies himself as one of the all time greats.
Worst Case: That Deandre Jordan fiasco was more than we thought it was. Him and Paul do have issues, and Jordan remembers early on why he wanted to go to Dallas. Paul also seems to be finally feeling that pressure of post-season success. Blake Griffin remains nonchalant, but he isn’t developing his shot and the Clippers seem to be in a similar spot as last year. Pierce realizes why this is his last year, and Stephenson in LA is just an off court bonanza. The Clippers make the playoffs but is everyone’s pick to lose in round one, and in an embarrassing game four at home get swept in it. The media immediately screams for much needed change.
Phoenix Suns:
Best Case: Suns fans start to realize they were just fine without acquiring LaMarcus Aldridge. It allows them to run smaller lineups with TJ Warren playing more and PJ Tucker getting minutes at the four, and the two guards Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight really light up. Bledsoe makes an all star game, and rookie Devin Booker get some rookie of the year hype. Tyson Chandler is the rim protector that puts it all together, and he helps teach Alex Len and make him a more complete veteran. The Suns make the playoffs, and make some noise, but are unable to get out of the first round. With Knight, Bledsoe, Len, Booker and Warren all getting major playoff minutes for the first time it was a great experience.
Worst case: Markeiff Morris becomes an off court problem. He just doesn’t show up for games and forces to be traded for pennies on the dollar. While the Suns watch him succeed in his new location, the Suns now are depleted at power forward. Len is unable to grow at center due to Chandler siphoning minutes, and although Chandler looks over the hill, it is being argued Len still cannot perform better. Booker doesn’t see much of any minutes, and they miss the playoffs, and find themselves picking at ten, and stuck in mediocrity.
Sacramento Kings
Best case: The Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, Demarcus Cousins thing works. We find out that all they want to do is win and doing so with each other makes them all happy. Add to that that George Karl seems to be forgotten as a great all time coach and this is a playoff team. They do not quite have enough to get out of the first round, but the experience for Cousins is invaluable and knowing that Rondo is happy and willing to sign an extensions gives you a coach, a point guard and a center to build on for the future.
Worst Case: All of the rumors about Karl and Cousins, and not getting along start coming to fruition. On court antics by Cousins cause him to be suspended for a game by Karl and it causes a media firestorm. Rondo is officially over the hill, and Gay mentally checks out. Guys such as Willie Cauley-Stein and Ben Mclemore cannot seem to develop any offense and being towards the cellar causes them to trade Cousins. Now with no star, and unpromising young talent, the Kings seems stuck in reverse.
Los Angeles Lakers
Best Case: Kobe Bryant makes it through a season healthy. He plays in limited minutes allowing guys like Deangelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson to gel with each other, and the Lakers find themselves around .500. They make a push for the eight seed, and fall short by just a couple of games, but the draft pick they traded for Steve Nash doesn’t end up to be as valuable as many thought it would. The Russell to Julius Randle connection is something that Lakers fans can get excited about and Bryant even said he would come back on a team friendly contract to play with the two.
Worst Case: Bryant is out almost every other game before being shut down in February, more than likely for his career. When he was healthy, he was chucking shots looking to climb the scoring charts. Randle looks like a rookie, and Russell is one as well, and when relying on that losses come in bunches. They finish with one of the three worst records in the league, but on draft night find out they get the fourth pick, which would happen to go Philadelphia.
