Major League Soccer Decision Day is finally upon us.
All 20 clubs have played 33 regular season games up to this point, which means just one remains. With eight of 12 berths in the 2015 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs clinched so far, there is still so much to play for and for teams whose postseason fate in uncertain, there’s not the slightest room for error. Even for those who’ve already qualified, the results of Sunday’s contests could have a direct impact on where there seeded once the day’s play is complete.
Columbus Crew SC find themselves in a fairly advantageous situation heading into the season finale. They’re currently third in the Eastern Conference standings after defeating Toronto FC 2-0 last Saturday on the road which guaranteed them a playoff spot. They now return to MAPFRE Stadium to face DC United in front of what should be an enthusiastic and boisterous home crowd. United is only one point ahead of the Black and Gold, meaning a win would ensure a second place finish.
Why is that important? Because the way the MLS playoffs work this year, the top two teams in each conference receive a bye into the conference semifinals. The teams ranked third through sixth will contest a one-off, knockout round match with three hosting six and four hosting five. Obviously, if you can avoid that “win or go home” scenario, you would, and Crew SC has a tremendous opportunity to do so.
Unfortunately for Crew SC, they’ll have to figure out a way to get the full three points without the services of two key players. Forward Kei Kamara and playmaking midfielder Federico Higuaín were both cautioned against Toronto and will miss Sunday’s game due to yellow card accumulation. For Kamara, it has to be especially frustrating considering he will be unable to add to his total of 22 goals on the year and could potentially lose the Golden Boot race to Sebastian Giovinco.
This weekend’s play is set up similarly to most international tournaments, where teams from the same group play their final game at the same time so as not to know what they need to do beforehand. In MLS’ case, games involving teams from the same conference will all be kicking off simultaneously (Eastern Conference: 5 PM ET, Western Conference: 7 PM ET). The only exception to this is the matchup between the New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire which will start in lockstep with the Western Conference games. This is due to the fact the Red Bulls and FC Dallas are both in the hunt for the Supporters’ Shield.
But back to Columbus Crew SC. What are all the possible scenarios associated with where they could possibly finish in the East when the referees blow the final whistle on all five conference games? With the club a mere three points ahead of sixth-placed New England, there are certainly a host of outcomes, both good and bad. The good thing is the Black and Gold are firmly ensconced into the postseason conversation at this point, so there is certainly no risk of being on the outside looking in.
What I’m going to do here is outline every single possible seeding scenario for Crew SC based on the final results of Sunday’s Eastern Conference matches. Both their seed and their opening round opponent will be presented. It should be noted that most if not all of these outcomes are assuming either a draw or loss for Columbus.
Columbus Crew SC Decision Day: All Possible Playoff Scenarios
The first scenario is fairly simple. As mentioned above, a win over DC United Sunday gives them the two-seed in the East which means they avoid the knockout round altogether. They would play second-lowest remaining seed from the two knockout round games in the Conference Semifinals. For example, if the three and four-seeds defend home turf in that round, they would face the three.
These next scenarios are related to where Columbus would find themselves seeded in the event of a draw with DC. In each of them, we will present what the Eastern Conference standings will look like if it pans out in that fashion. Of course, we’ll leave the Red Bulls out since we already know they’re Eastern Conference champions.
Draw Scenario 1
This is probably the least likely, but let’s say Crew SC draws with DC United, Toronto FC draws with the Montreal Impact and the New England Revolution tie New York City FC. In this case, there is no change in the standings.
2. DC United, 52 points
3. Columbus Crew SC, 51 points
4. Toronto FC, 50 points
5. Montreal Impact, 49 points
6. New England Revolution, 48 points
Columbus Crew SC hosts the New England Revolution in the knockout round.
Draw Scenario 2
A Crew SC draw combined with a Toronto FC win over the Montreal Impact and a win for the New England Revolution over New York City FC.
2. Toronto FC, 52 points, 16 wins
3. DC United, 52 points, 15 wins
4. Columbus Crew SC, 51 points
5. New England Revolution, 50 points
6. Montreal Impact, 48 points
Columbus Crew SC hosts the New England Revolution in the knockout round.
Draw Scenario 3
A Crew SC draw combined with a draw in TFC-Montreal and a New England win over NYCFC
2. DC United, 52 points
3. Columbus Crew SC, 51 points
4. Toronto FC, 50 points, 15 wins
5. New England Revolution, 50 points, 14 wins
6. Montreal Impact, 49 points
Columbus Crew SC hosts the Montreal Impact in the knockout round.
Draw Scenario 4
A Crew SC draw combined with Montreal defeating Toronto and New England defeating NYCFC.
2. DC United, 52 points
3. Montreal Impact, 51 points, 15 wins
4. Columbus Crew SC, 51 points, 14 wins
5. New England Revolution, 50 points
6. Toronto FC, 49 points
Columbus Crew SC hosts the New England Revolution in the knockout round.
Draw Scenario 5
Draw scenarios one or three occur with the only exception being New England loses to NYCFC and Orlando City SC defeats the Philadelphia Union plus makes up the goal differential it has with New England. In that case Crew SC would finish third and host sixth-seeded Orlando City in the knockout round.
Now let’s take a look at where Columbus will find themselves seeded should DC United emerge with the full three points Sunday. It must be noted that in the event of a Crew SC loss and New England win regardless of margin, New England would have superior goal difference and thus get a higher seed.
Loss Scenario 1
Crew SC loss combined with Toronto FC win and New England Revolution win.
2. DC United, 54 points
3. Toronto FC, 52 points
4. New England Revolution, 50 points
5. Columbus Crew SC, 50 points
6. Montreal Impact, 48 points
New England Revolution hosts Columbus Crew SC in the knockout round.
Loss Scenario 2
Crew SC loss combined with draw in TFC-Montreal and New England win over NYCFC.
2. DC United, 54 points
3. Toronto FC, 50 points, 15 wins
4. New England Revolution, 50 points, 14 wins
5. Columbus Crew SC, 50 points, 14 wins
6. Montreal Impact, 49 points
New England Revolution hosts Crew SC in the knockout round.
Loss Scenario 3
Crew SC loss combined with Montreal win over TFC and New England win over NYCFC
2. DC United, 54 points
3. Montreal Impact, 51 points
4. New England Revolution, 50 points
5. Columbus Crew SC, 50 points
6. Toronto FC, 49 points
New England Revolution hosts Crew SC in the knockout round.
Loss Scenario 4
Crew SC loss combined with draw between TFC and Montreal and a New England draw/loss with NYCFC.
2. DC United, 54 points
3. Toronto FC, 50 points, 15 wins
4. Columbus Crew SC, 50 points, 14 wins
5. Montreal Impact, 49 points
6. New England Revolution, 47/48 points
Columbus Crew SC hosts Montreal Impact in the knockout round.
Loss Scenario 5
Crew SC loss combined with Montreal win and New England draw/loss.
2. DC United, 54 points
3. Montreal Impact, 51 points
4. Columbus Crew SC, 50 points
5. Toronto FC, 49 points
6. New England Revolution, 47/48 points
Columbus Crew SC hosts Toronto FC in knockout round.
The fact that Montreal and Toronto are playing one another makes it virtually impossible Crew SC will finish in the sixth spot. However, there are a few worst-case scenarios whereby which Columbus will find themselves on the road in the knockout round should they falter against DC on Sunday. And they all pretty much point to a date in Gillette Stadium with the New England Revolution, a side fans of the Black and Gold are all too aware ended their MLS Cup hopes last season.
Nevertheless, the objective is fairly simple as MLS regular season play comes to a close: just win. The Black and Gold may be short-handed with Kamara’s and Higuaín’s looming absences, but that doesn’t mean the full three points aren’t there for the taking. Defend the home turf, get that positive result and Crew SC will be sitting fairly pretty as we sit on the cusp of the MLS postseason.
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