Tuesday 20th October. Arsenal are defending doggedly against Bayern Munich, who has won all twelve of their fixtures so far this season. The German champions have had over 70% of the ball, and made over three times the number of passes as their North London hosts. A goal is all they need to secure a win, but somehow, Arsenal’s back five – Petr Čech, Héctor Bellerín, Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker and Nacho Monreal – has held firm. Only a handful of the Bavarians’ shots have been on target, and Čech, a £10 million summer signing from Chelsea, has held his own. However, the Gunners look dangerous on the counter. They win a free-kick in Bayern’s half. Santi Cazorla, playing in the deeper role he has taken on in the past year alongside Francis Coquelin, floats in a free-kick towards the penalty spot. Perhaps put off by the flailing bodies of Thomas Muller and Koscielny, the German champions’ goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, comes to claim the ball, but flaps at it. It strikes the face of Olivier Giroud, and trickles harmlessly into the net. 1-0.
The visitors are stunned. However, they are still in the game. Douglas Costa, so dominant in the first half, has a shot blocked; he wins a free-kick; a pair of corners are conceded; David Alaba has a shot blocked; Čech makes an easy save from Thiago’s effort; Arsenal are holding firm. With a minute to go, the score is still 1-0. Alaba looks to play the ball out from the back, spreading the play to the left. But Héctor Bellerín, who was inside his own half when the pass was made, reaches the ball before Bernat, and makes a bursting run into the penalty area. Mesut Özil is on hand to apply a finish, and despite Neuer’s best efforts, it goes just far enough over the line to count. 2-0. Game over. The fans go wild.
Not only does this result keep Arsenal in the Champions League, it represents a victory over one of the best sides in Europe. Having struggled against the best sides for so long, the Gunners have now completed victories and clean sheets against Manchester City, Manchester United and Bayern in 2015, and this new-found resilience will ensure progression in the competition without any doubt.
Or will it?
Despite the result, Arsenal still sit bottom of Group F after playing each team once. Disappointing results against Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiakos are now in the past, but the bizarre rules of tiebreakers in the competition mean that victories against both sides will by no means guarantee progression. As can be seen from the table above, the usual factor of goal difference is only secondary to head-to-head record in the Champions League, explaining why Arsenal sit behind the Croatian champions despite a superior goal difference.
The results in the games not involving Arsenal appear to be something of a given. English bookmakers have Olympiakos at 4/7 to win at home to Dinamo, and another other than a pair of Bayern wins in those two games would be an enormous upset. Likewise, an Arsenal victory in their penultimate fixture, at home to Dinamo, is as close to a certainty as you will find in European competition.
Therefore, the group will hinge on two games: Arsenal’s visits to the Allianz Arena on 4th November and to Athens on 9th December.
Arsenal’s record in Munich is excellent in recent years. Having suffered defeats there in 2001 and 2005, the Round of 16 in both 2013 and 2014 saw the teams play each other, and both times Arsenal travelled to Munich with a first-leg deficit. However, they performed creditably in both fixtures, with a 2-0 win in 2013 thanks to goals from Olivier Giroud and Laurent Koscielny, and a 1-1 draw thanks to Lukas Podolski’s strike in 2014.
Even the most passionate of Arsenal fans would be unlike to expect a victory in the Allianz, but a draw could be a possibility. However, the Bavarians conceded only seven goals at home in their seventeen league fixtures there last season, and it may prove difficult for Arsenal to get a result there; a win at Olympiakos looks like a much more manageable prospect on paper.
But this may not prove to be the case.
The Greek giants’ defeat at home to Bayern Munich, a 3-0 reverse which saw two goals scored after the 89th minute, remains the only fixtures they have not won in 2015/16, and their Champions League group form in 2014/15 proves just how strong they are at the Karaiskakis Stadium. With wins against Atletico Madrid (3-2), Juventus (1-0) and Malmo FF (4-2), Olympiakos are undeniably a formidable force in Greece. They lost only one home league fixture last season, a 2-1 defeat to PAOK, and in February 2014 won 2-0 at home to Manchester United thanks to goals from Alejandro Domínguez and current Arsenal man Joel Campbell.
The upshot of all this is that Olympiakos are a very tricky team to beat.
Furthermore, even if Arsenal do manage to win there, there is a fair chance that they will have to by a two-goal margin. The aforementioned probable results – Dinamo losing their three remaining fixtures and Bayern defeating Olympiakos in Munich – would leave Bayern on 12 points excluding their fixture against Arsenal, Olympiakos on nine, Dinamo on three and Arsenal on six. Therefore, a victory against Olympiakos and defeat to Bayern, what many would consider likely results from the games, would leave the Greeks and Brits on the same number of points, with nine each. After their 3-2 win at the Emirates earlier in October, Olympiakos would then hold the upper hand on head-to-head record, and a 1-0 or 2-1 win would not be enough for Arsenal to progress. Thus, defeat against Bayern will leave Arsenal needing a win over Dinamo and a 2-0 win at the home of the Greek champions to reach the Round of 16.
Thus, it seems that the bookmakers are vindicated in their qualification odds in Group F. Bayern Munich are 1/7 to reach the next stage, with Olympiakos on 4/7 and Arsenal best priced at 7/4. The Gunners’ qualification will rely on a point against Bayern and a one-goal win in Athens, or, failing that, a victory by a two-goal margin. Both of these seem improbable, but so did Tuesday’s 2-0 victory. Either way, one things is for sure: Arsenal still need a miracle to reach the Round of 16.
