(Editorial) – Going into the LA Galaxy’s final regular season home game, things seemed to be set in stone. FC Dallas had beaten Real Salt Lake, securing the Western Conference title. With the Supporter’s Shield and Western Conference 1st seed no longer possible, all there was for LA to play for was the 2nd seed (and the knockout round bye that comes with it).
With the Portland Timbers playing on three days rest, it seemed like an easy win to the WC second seed. Instead, a poor second half by LA and urgency by Portland led to a 5-2 Portland win. The Galaxy appeared to relax after the opening 45 minutes (LA was up 1-0 at half time) and the Timbers were very much the more desperate and aggressive side.
While this result could be reason for panic going into the playoffs, LA Galaxy are historically great at flipping the switch:
Galaxy 2011: Loss, win, loss to close the season. Galaxy 2014: Loss, draw, loss to close the season. They won MLS Cup both years.
— Ryan Rosenblatt (@RyanRosenblatt) October 19, 2015
Because of this loss, they now need a result this weekend at Sporting KC. Here’s what the LA Galaxy playoff scenarios look like:
A win in Kansas City get them the #2 seed.
This result would simplify everything. The LA Galaxy can still finish as low as sixth in the Western Conference because of the loss to Portland. With a win against Sporting, LA would secure the #2 seed in the west regardless of what anyone else does. They are 2-8-6 on the road this year, so this is probably the most unlikely result. It would certainly be an accomplishment.
Every team of relevance has only one game remaining, with the exception of Sporting, who host the Colorado Rapids this Wednesday.
Click here to see the entire MLS schedule for the final week of the season. Click here to see the full league standings.
Winning this game would also give them home field in a potential MLS Cup final against all but New York Red Bulls and D.C. United. Regardless of what happens, NYRB would host LA Galaxy. Should LA beat SKC, United would need to win their final game (at Columbus Crew) to host MLS Cup against LA.
A draw against Sporting isn’t the end of the world.
With a draw next weekend, LA can finish no worse than fifth in the west. Three team below them in the standings to win their remaining game to finish above them in the table.
The Vancouver Whitecaps would need to win their final home game against Houston. While Vancouver is on a bit of a skid of late (winless in their last 5 games), one would expect them win that game.
The Timbers would need to win at home against Colorado to jump LA in the standings. That’s a favorable draw. Sporting would need to win this Wednesday against Colorado and make up a 7 goal differential, which is a tough task. The Seattle Sounders would not be able to finish above the LA Galaxy.
A loss is probably really bad.
If the LA Galaxy were to lose their final game of the season, every other playoff team would still be in position to jump them in the standings. It would be possible for LA to fall from second in the west to sixth (the last playoff spot).
Sporting would need just a draw at home against Colorado to finish above LA in the standings. Every other team would just need to win their final games. As previously stated, Portland and Vancouver can probably win their final matches at home. Seattle hosts RSL to finish the season and is also a probable win.
The most critical goal for the LA Galaxy is to avoid playing a road knockout round match (fourth seed or higher). They have won just 2 road MLS games this year: 3-1 at Colorado on August 1 and 2-1 at FC Dallas on August 15. A draw against Sporting should do the trick.
The next goal should be to lock up the second seed (which is unlikely). That will probably require a win at Sporting Park. Head coach Bruce Arena and company have their work cut out for them this week.
