With a stacked Saturday of games in College Football coming up, our team of experts are doing a six game special on what can be considered a separation Saturday. Look for big games, big action, and big moments. Here are our predictions from John Bava, Yesh Ginsburg, Steen Kirby, and Mike Loveall.
#13 Ole Miss at Memphis (Saturday 10/17/15 12:00 P.M. EST in Memphis, TN)
Line: Ole Miss by 10.5
John:
The Rebels got back to winning ways last Saturday after their blowout loss to Florida in The Swamp a week earlier by beating up on hapless New Mexico State. Their final non-conference game takes place this weekend and it’s a rare SEC road game against a Group of Five school in Memphis.
Despite the sizable line, this game has the potential to be anything but a cakewalk for Ole Miss. The Tigers boast one of the nation’s longest winning streaks at 12 games even though they’ve only won their last three by an average of just 5.7 points.
Exceptional quarterback play should be on full display. Both the Rebels Chad Kelly and the Tigers Paxton Lynch average over 300 yards passing per game. The 6’7″ Lynch has the third highest passer rating in FBS and has yet to throw an interception this year.
I think Memphis keeps it close but their poor pass defense (ranked 122nd in the nation) lets them down. Plus Ole Miss has some pretty fearsome defenders, particularly Robert Nkemdiche, who will be a handful for the Tigers.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Memphis 28
Yesh:
The biggest game in the American Athletic Conference’s short 2-year history will take place at high noon on Saturday, when Memphis hosts Ole Miss. Last year, the Tigers hung tough with the Rebels for most of the game. This year’s Memphis team looks even better and should put up a challenge under wonder coach Justin Fuente.
Honestly, Memphis should be considered an outside shot to make the Playoff if they finish undefeated The classic Liberty Bowl will be rocking as a revitalized program takes the next step forward. Give me Memphis in an upset. They need it more and Ole Miss could easily get caught looking ahead to future SEC games, including Texas A&M next week. If you don’t know Paxton Lynch’s name yet, you will by Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Memphis 37, Ole Miss 33
Steen:
Two of the best QB’s in the country, Chad Kelly, and Paxton Lynch, will face off in a high noon showdown as SEC West contender Ole Miss faces off with one of the best non-power 5 conference teams in the country, Justin Fuente’s Memphis Tigers. This game at first looks to be a mismatch in terms of recruiting and program reputation, but Ole Miss should be on upset alert this week. After the big win over Alabama, the Rebels went flat for two weeks straight in the SEC, winning a close game over Vandy and losing to Florida in a shocker where failed to generate offense.
The Rebels offense is still potent, and they have good coaching and plenty of talent, but I have a feeling that a shocker is going to occur in this one, vaulting Memphis up the rankings and most likely eliminating Ole Miss from CFB playoff contention. The Memphis D isn’t great, but Paxton Lynch is an incredible player and the Tigers have only once failed to score 40+ points. Their 5-0 record, and this team, is legit, and I look for them to show it on Saturday in a potential shootout.
Prediction: Memphis 45, Ole Miss 42
Mike:
In one of the more unlikely marquee games of the week, the Ole Miss Rebels will hop on the bus and take a short ride to take on upstart Memphis Tigers. Justin Fuente has the Tigers in the drivers seat for the Group of 5 bid to the New Year’s Day Bowl. And the Tigers are coming off of a bye week, with plenty of time to prepare and plan. While the Tigers offense is putting up some good numbers this year, I think this comes down to the Ole Miss offense being able to out-play the Memphis defense. This game might be closer than expected, though.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Memphis 27
#10 Alabama at #9 Texas A&M (Saturday 10/17/15 3:30 P.M. EST in College Station, TX)
Line: Alabama by 4
John:
Last year, the Crimson Tide absolutely embarrassed the Aggies in Tuscaloosa by the tune of 59-0. 2015 figures to be different. A&M has seemingly come out of nowhere (they were unranked at the start of the year) and are now one of only three undefeated teams left in the SEC.
In a conference where the quarterback play hasn’t exactly impressed at times, the Aggies Kyle Allen has been a major bright spot. He’s thrown for 13 touchdown passes and is averaging 9.2 yards per pass, both second in the conference behind only Mississippi’s Chad Kelly. Under new defensive coordinator John Chavis, the Aggie defense has become much improved from last year, particularly against the pass. Defensive lineman Myles Garret already has 7.5 sacks on the year, good enough for fourth-best in the nation.
That will prove a challenge to Bama signal caller Jake Coker who seems to be getting better after a few rough outings. He clearly had his best game of the year against Arkansas last week. If he can continue to make strides and running back Derrick Henry is able to run the ball well against a somewhat suspect rush defense, the Tide can certainly escape College Station with a win.
Prediction: Alabama 33, Texas A&M 31
Yesh:
Alabama is a dangerous team to play once they have a loss. Texas A&M has a much better defense this year and is still smarting from last year’s 59-0 blowout loss. This Texas A&M offense will spread the field and move the ball against Bama, and the defense should be able to get enough stops against Jake Coker and co. to keep this close. I think the home-field advantage makes the difference for Texas A&M here.
Prediction: Texas A&M 31, Alabama 28
Steen:
Bama is stout on defense with intense physicality and they have a solid running game, but I’ve been down on the Crimson Tide’s fortunes this season thus far. They just seem to lack the spark, and starpower, needed in the clutch, and going on the road to College Station always proves difficult, especially in as big of a game as this. Bama struggled for a while against a weaker Arkansas team last week.
John Chavis has done a remarkable job with the Texas A&M defense, which has one of the best pass rushing combos in the country with Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. This Aggies defense has added an extra dimension to an offense that has a good ground game, a solid enough QB in Kyle Allen, and some great WRs. Kevin Sumlin is an excellent coach and he’s building a dark horse winner in College Station.
Bama should keep this close with the power run game and defense, but I have the Aggies all but eliminating them from both the playoff and the SEC West with a huge home win in this one. Look for the Aggie pass rush to turn the Tide and bother Jake Coker into sacks or turnovers in the clutch.
Prediction: Texas A&M 35, Alabama 27
Mike:
The John Chavis era at Texas A&M gets its first real test this weekend as the Aggies have a chance to take control of the SEC West and likely propel themselves into the College Football Playoff discussion with a win at home against Alabama. Texas A&M is also coming off a bye. And while Kyle Allen is getting a lot of press, remember that he is still young. The Alabama defense will be better than anyone they’ve faced thus far. And we saw two weeks ago just how dangerous the Crimson Tide can be when they feel their being overlooked.
Look for Alabama to put pressure on Kyle Allen all game and hope their contain holds and backs can keep up with the A&M receivers. Call me crazy, but I think the Aggies have a chance to pull this out.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Alabama 24
#7 Michigan State at #12 Michigan (Saturday 10/17/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Ann Arbor, MI)
Line: Michigan by 7.5
John:
Could “big brother” be on his way back to reestablishing his dominant ways against Sparty? The Maize and Blue seem to be ahead of schedule under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh and are riding a wave of momentum after becoming the first school since Kansas State in 1995 to record three straight shutouts. He’ll be looking to reverse a troubling trend in this series, as the Wolverines have only won once since 2008.
With the Big House expected to be a frenzied cauldron on Saturday, such a reversal could indeed be possible. Couple that with the fact MSU is depleted on the offensive line due to injuries along with the lack of experience at running back and things are looking good for Michigan to continue rolling. The Spartans have the advantage at quarterback with Connor Cook over UM’s Jake Rudock, but unless Cook has a Heisman caliber performance I can’t see Sparty coming away with this one.
Prediction: Michigan 27, Michigan State 13
Yesh:
Michigan State is beat up so far this year and has not looked great in their wins. On the other hand, they haven’t lost yet either. Michigan has a stingy defense that looks better and better each week. I think this Connor Cook-led offense is the difference here. Cook has made poor decisions under pressure in the past, but the Michigan offense isn’t yet good enough to take real advantage and the Spartans run defense is strong, which takes away Michigan’s strength.
Prediction: Michigan State 21, Michigan 13
Steen:
I’ve been wrong on Michigan thus far as the Harbaugh hands on coaching is really paying off for this Wolverines team, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they have absolutely dominated for five games straight. This is an elimination game in terms of the playoff for Michigan, along with an in-state rivalry game that is huge for Big 10 recruiting, and having home field advantage should aid their chances. No matter the winner, I expect it to be close.
The week 1 road loss to a now top 5 Utah team looks far better, but I’m not sure Michigan’s offense does outside of the running game. I’ve been wrong before, but I feel like a well-coached, hard working, and tenacious Michigan State team will pull this one out and make themselves come across as credible national title contenders. Sparty has struggled for two weeks straight but they can dose the running game with a pair of talented young running backs, the defense is solid enough, and Connor Cook should outplay Jake Rudock in a game that may only take three scoring drives to win.
Prediction: Michigan State 21, Michigan 17
Mike:
The Wolverines come into this game with three straight shutouts, two of which were against Top 25 teams. Michigan State was once thought to be the second best team in the nation, but they come into the game with a bunch of less-than-impressive wins. Psychology might be the deciding factor here; the Spartans wondering if they can handle the resurrection of the Wolverine program when they were expecting to challenge Ohio State for Big Ten supremecy. Michigan returns this rivalry to where it once was: the Wolverine win column.
Prediction: Michigan 28, Michigan State 17
#8 Florida at #6 LSU (Saturday 10/17/15 7:00 P.M. EST in Baton Rouge, LA)
Line: LSU by 7.5
John:
The Gators have slowly but surely been proving that this revival under new head coach Jim McElwain is legit. First they blew out previously third-ranked Ole Miss 38-10 at home, then followed that up with a completely dominant performance against Missouri on the road, winning 21-3. Their unbeaten run up to this point has skyrocketed them into to the #8 AP ranking
Now comes a huge test in Baton Rouge against similarly undefeated LSU. The Gators chances at coming out victorious took a huge hit midweek when it was announced starting quarterback Will Grier was suspended for the remainder of the year as a result of testing positive for steroids. It will now be up to Treon Harris to keep the momentum going.
Florida has weapons all over their defense and they’re going to need it, particularly in stopping the run and Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette. The Gators are currently allowing under 100 yards per game on the ground, so perhaps they’re well equipped to do so. I’m predicting that Tiger quarterback Brandon Harris, who has yet to throw a pick on the year, will see that mark come to an end with UF defensive back Vernon Hargreaves nabbing his fourth of the year. Nonetheless, I think the Tigers prevail in front of their always boisterous fans in Death Valley.
Prediction: LSU 20, Florida 13
Yesh:
This is a matchup of undefeated SEC teams, but Florida is much more proven than LSU. LSU’s FBS opponents have a combined record below .500 this year. Leonard Fournette is a beast, but he can’t carry this team forever, especially against a defense as good as Florida’s. This will be a low-scoring game, but I expect Florida to be able to control the line of scrimmage and win this game.
Prediction: Florida 21, LSU 10
Steen:
Florida already won a huge game with mid-week troubles prior, when they beat Ole Miss, but the season long loss of emerging QB Will Grier is a far greater blow than that “flu game” was, and playing at night in Death Valley makes things look even shakier for the Gator’s undefeated record. The UF defense is a great unit, and both the run and pass defense for the Gators is top-notch.
LSU doesn’t have a passing game to speak of, and everything for them on offense rests on the shoulders of Heisman leader Leonard Fournette, and to a lesser extent his backup, star freshman Derrius Guice. Both these teams have great defenses, and though a lot of people see LSU as a beatable one dimensional team, the home field advantage and a team mentality should help them in this one. I don’t trust Brandon Harris, but I don’t Florida backup QB Treon Harris either, and LSU should be able to punish a couple of his mistakes and create some turnovers. Fournette should get well over 100 yards and 2 TD’s on the day, and the Bayou Bengals will sneak out a defensive battle. Look for LSU to take the lead role in the SEC west this week, and potentially move into the top 5.
Prediction: LSU 21, Florida 14
Mike:
A matchup of the two undefeated teams with the most questions remaining. It’s been a tumultuous week for the Gators, can they focus and execute with all the changes? And LSU is a one man show. With these two defenses, a TD+ line is pretty big. LSU makes just enough plays.
Prediction: LSU 20, Florida 16.
USC at #14 Notre Dame (Saturday 10/17/15 7:30 P.M. EST in Notre Dame, IN)
Line: Notre Dame by 7
John:
USC was already reeling after an unexpected home loss to Washington last Thursday. In free fall might be the apt term to use at this point after head coach Steve Sarkisian was originally given a leave of absence on Sunday to deal with substance abuse issues, then promptly fired a day later.
Interim coach Clay Helton has a daunting task ahead of him with his first game in charge coming on the road in South Bend against massive rival Notre Dame. The Irish will be facing two rivalry games in a row after dispatching Navy 41-24 last week. ND has struggled in recent years the week after playing the Midshipmen, having only one twice since 2007.
Cody Kessler will need to replicate last year’s performance against the Irish if SC are to have any chance. He picked apart ND in a 49-14 win, throwing for 372 yards and six touchdowns. The Irish defense is much improved from 2014 though, currently ranked 12th in pass defense after finishing 77th last season.
This turmoil engulfing the USC program really came at the wrong time. I think ND wins fairly convincingly, keeping their slim CFP hopes alive.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45, USC 20
Yesh:
College football’s greatest intersectional rivalry is back. Notre Dame is a talented team, though people are forgetting it after the Clemson loss. USC is one of the most talented teams in the country, but the coaching staff has not been able to get that talented team to perform consistently. I have a feeling that USC will pull together to support their former coach and win this one going away.
Prediction: USC 35, Notre Dame 10
Steen:
A classic rivalry between traditional powers stacked with talent, this one has the potential to be a great game. With that said, Notre Dame at home has to be the clear cut favorite. The USC program is in complete turmoil, and it’s hard to tell how they will react to everything. This Trojans team is just as good as USC but they already have two losses in which they failed to show up and play well. Notre Dame hasn’t had that problem, this team is well coached and focused, moving past some difficult injuries to get to 5-1 with that one loss coming on the road to a good Clemson team in difficult conditions. Notre Dame isn’t out of the hunt for the Playoff yet and I doubt they will let USC change that. Their defense should shut down the Trojan offense, and the USC secondary is poor enough to let the Irish score.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, USC 21
Mike:
It’s been another dramatic week around the USC program. It’ll be good for the Trojans to get away from L.A. and all of the distractions surrounding the Sarkisian firing. Unfortunately, they’ll find a very stout Notre Dame defense waiting for them. Notre Dame still isn’t out of the national conversation; a single loss to an undefeated Clemson today would still have Notre Dame very high at the end of the season. Look for the Fighting Irish to want this game a little bit more than the Trojans and that’ll be the difference between two teams that are pretty equal talent-wise.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, USC 23
Penn State at #1 Ohio State (Saturday 10/17/15 8:00 P.M. EST in Columbus, OH)
Line: Ohio State by 19
John:
Saturday night at the Horseshoe will be dark in more ways than one, as head coach Urban Meyer has urged fans to where black for the game against Penn State. The Buckeyes themselves will be decked in out in alternate all-black uniforms for the game. Having had a look at them myself, I must say they’re pretty sharp.
On the field, the Nittany Lions will be looking to replicate their near-upset in Happy Valley last season. OSU eventually prevailed 31-24 in double overtime, thus keeping alive what appeared to be fledgling national title hopes. Despite mistakes earlier in the game, JT Barrett came through in the clutch, particularly in the red zone during the two extra periods.
It’s likely he’ll need to do the same Saturday. Against Maryland, he was used almost exclusively in red zone situations while Cardale Jones played the rest of Ohio State’s offensive snaps. It paid off, with the Buckeyes converting all five of their possessions inside the Terp 20 into touchdowns.
I think the Bucks are beginning to tire of people decrying their sluggish and at times indifferent play this year. After a fairly complete and mistake-free game on offense last week, the Scarlet and Gray turn in a similar outing against PSU, only this time on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Penn State 17
Yesh:
Ohio State needs to earn their #1 ranking by dominating their competition. They haven’t done that yet, though the defense has been stifling. I saw how Temple at the Penn State offensive line alive. Joey Bosa and Sam Hubbard will be in that backfield all night. Don’t expect the Nittany Lions to move the ball much, if at all.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Penn State 0
Steen:
The defending national champions remain undefeated, and remind me a lot of last season’s Florida State team that ended up sneaking into the playoff as defending national champions as well. The Buckeyes are talented, well-coached, and have all the potential, but they have really struggled through wins so far against teams far below their talent and ranking. Everyone is out to get Ohio State this year, and though their defense has been solid, the offense, with lack of consistency at QB has left much to be desired.
Penn State deserves credit from bouncing back to get to 5-1 and involve themselves in the Big 10 conversation after a manhandling at the hands of Temple in week 1. Christian Hackenberg has improved and James Franklin’s defense is good. This is the biggest game Penn State has played since the NCAA sanctions if you ask me, and on a national stage they should at least give Ohio State some headaches. With that said, they lack the offense and the line play to get this done, and their traditional style should give Urban Meyer’s squad a tactical edge. Look for the team in black to prevail over the team in white and possibly pad the score in the fourth quarter for the polls.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Penn State 14
Mike:
Ohio State is holding onto the top spot in the nation by a thread. But last week the Buckeyes looked like they started to finally put things together. Penn State has been up and down this season, with a good win against Indiana last week, but an opening game loss to Temple and a poor showing against Army two weeks ago. This is the game the Buckeyes start their championship run as they put the Nittany Lions down early.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Penn State 16
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