The Georgia Bulldogs are facing some adversity heading into their Homecoming game against the Missouri Tigers. They have lost two straight SEC games. Greyson Lambert has regressed from his near perfect streak earlier this season. Nick Chubb is lost for the season with a gruesome knee injury. They sit at a disappointing 4-2 (2-2 SEC) and so far have faltered in the make-or-break slate of their October schedule.
On the bright side, not all hope is lost. Oddly enough, Georgia could still control its own destiny if the Florida Gators falter against the LSU Tigers this weekend – which is not outside the realm of possibility following the year-long suspension of starting quarterback Will Grier for a violation of the performance-enhancing drug use rule. With a Florida loss and a Georgia win over Missouri, the Dawgs would win the SEC East with victories against Florida, the Kentucky Wildcats and the Auburn Tigers. There are a lot of “what ifs”, but the fact that it’s even a possibility after two straight losses is slightly reassuring.
Something else Georgia fans can hang their hats on: the Bulldogs have lost three straight games just once in head coach Mark Richt’s tenure – the disastrous 2010 season that saw a 4-game suspension for star wide receiver A.J. Green and a 6-7 overall record. In 190 games as the Georgia head coach, Richt holds a 140-50 (.737) record overall.
Step back from that ledge, Georgia fans. This season is far from over.
The Georgia-Missouri game is a must win for both teams. Georgia has the distinct edge playing under the lights at Sanford Stadium, but with the inconsistency of this team, anything can happen. Here are five things Georgia needs to do to win on Saturday:
1. Learn how to tackle
It seems defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt’s “star-studded” defense has forgotten the fundamentals when it comes to tackling. The Georgia defense let a 28-7 lead against the Tennessee Volunteers slip away due to poor mechanics. They continuously attempted to arm tackle Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs and the rest of the Volunteers offense. Against Missouri, Georgia will need to be more sound on defense in order to contain a capable, but struggling Missouri offense. Pruitt will likely ingrain a simple three-word phrase in the mind of his defense: “Wrap them up!”
2. Trust running back Sony Michel as the feature back
The injury to star running back Nick Chubb brought back terrible memories for Georgia fans. Memories of injuries to former running back Todd Gurley, former wide receiver Michael Bennett, running back Keith Marshall and former wide receiver Justin Scott-Wesley. The grounds in Knoxville have been especially unfriendly to Georgia over the past couple years. The nice thing for the Georgia Bulldogs is they have an extremely talented running back in Sony Michel who will now be the feature back in Chubb’s absence. To date, Michel has 421 rushing yards on 63 carries (6.7 yard average) and four touchdowns. He’s also been a huge threat in the passing game, with 12 receptions for 174 yards (14.5 yard average) and three touchdowns. He is fast, agile and strong – everything you want in a running back. Georgia and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer need to trust Michel to produce against a Missouri team that ranks in the top 25 in rushing defense, allowing 112.7 yards per game. Missouri’s defense has been stout, but Michel has the talent to break through, just like Chubb did in his first start last season in the Georgia-Missouri game following Gurley’s suspension. Watch out for Michel on first down – he averages 6.4 yards per carry when Georgia is facing first down and 8-10 yards.
3. Get pressure on Missouri quarterback Drew Lock
Missouri quarterback Maty Mauk continues to sit due to an indefinite suspension for a “violation of team rules”, so the Tigers are rolling with backup quarterback Drew Lock for the third straight game. His numbers against the South Carolina Gamecocks and Florida were sub-par, to say the least (37-of-67 for two touchdowns and two interceptions). Lock has a decent arm and can hurt a defense with time in the pocket, so Georgia will need to make a point of putting pressure on the freshman quarterback. Making him uncomfortable in the pocket will change the dynamic of the game. Lock was sacked three times against Florida and threw a pick-six, so Georgia would be wise to take a look at the game film from last week before Saturday’s Georgia-Missouri tilt.
4. Contain the Missouri pass rush
Missouri over the last couple years has been known for its fierce pass rush. The 2015 Missouri defense has 18 sacks through six games (they had six against Florida). Georgia’s offensive line has been pretty good this season protecting Greyson Lambert, allowing just six sacks all year (ranked 13th in the country). It is imperative for the Georgia line to help Lambert stay comfortable in the pocket, especially after the recent erratic performances from the Bulldogs signal caller.
5. Avoid third and long (or third downs altogether)
Georgia’s struggles on third down have been well documented. In fact, Richt sat down and analyzed every third down play his team has run this season earlier this week. The numbers are ugly: Georgia ranks 124th in third down conversion percentage, converting just 18-of-62 (.290). What’s worse, Lambert’s numbers on third down and 3-7 yards to go are dismal: 2-of-12 for 12 yards (16.7%). On third and six-plus yards to go, he is 14-of-30 for 177 yards (46.7%) and he is averaging fewer yards per play than the line to gain at 5.9 yards per attempt. For Georgia to have success, they need to gain a decent chunk of yards on first down to put the offense in a more manageable second and/or third down situation. One positive: When Lambert has thrown the ball on first-and-10, he has been successful, completing 31-of-37 passes for 479 yards (83.8% and 12.95 yards per play).
PREDICTION:
When all is said and done, Saturday’s Georgia-Missouri game acts as a de-facto elimination game for both teams. Neither team can afford a third conference loss, and there will be a ton of urgency on the side of the Bulldogs to erase the stinging memories of their ugly two-game skid. Georgia has too much talent to lose three straight games, and they are a better team than Missouri. But if Lambert has another inconsistent game and the offensive line cannot stop the Missouri pass rush, the Bulldogs could be in trouble.
Georgia 31, Missouri 21
