It seems to be a new trend for international sides to select two openside flankers in their back row. You look at Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric for Wales, Francois Louw and Schalk Burger for South Africa, and of course, the Australian duo of Michael Hooper and David Pocock. With a quarter final against the Wallabies looming for Scotland this Sunday, Vern Cotter has opted for two natural opensides in John Hardie, and the forgotten man, Blair Cowan, to start alongside David Denton in the back row.
It seems the Scottish coaching team have prioritised counter-attacking the threat of Australia’s breakdown in their preparation for the biggest challenge of their careers. It could prove to be a masterstroke. Both players will be quick to the breakdown and will always be on the lookout for a turnover opportunity. Interestingly, Cowan made six turnovers in the Six Nations, the highest of any Scot. His arrival in the squad came a month later than he’d have hoped after missing the initial cut, and he will certainly have a point to prove at the weekend. Hardie has had an impressive tournament too, scoring two tries and making 25 tackles in his two appearances; a man never afraid of sticking his head where it hurts.
It’s no surprise that Cotter has moulded his team around the loose forwards for this match – they face an Australian back row, spearheaded by Pocock, that have been at the throats of every side they’ve faced thus far. England and Fiji couldn’t hack it, Wales came close but in the end ran out of steam, and now the Scots stand in their way.
Fortunately for Scotland however, Pocock, who surely has to be a World Rugby Player of the Year nominee after his sensational tournament, has been ruled out through injury. He has been replaced by Ben McCalman, who is an out and out No. 8, so on paper perhaps, the Australian back row threat has already been nullified somewhat.
That’s not to say that McCalman, Michael Hooper and Scott Fardy are not a threatening trio, but certainly the loss of Pocock, and Israel Folau at fullback, will have boosted Scottish hopes going into the knockout stages. The importance of the breakdown battle, the race for quick ball, cannot be overstated, and will play a vital part in determining which side progresses to the semis.
Scotland have their fair share of absentees too, with Jonny Gray and Ross Ford missing out due to suspension. It will be intriguing to see the effect this will have on Scotland’s lineout – another key facet of the game. They are replaced by Tim Swinson and Fraser Brown respectively. The loss of Ford’s experience on the one hand will be devastating, but on the other hand they gain an in-form hooker in Brown, who himself has been top drawer in the throwing department in the world cup thus far, hitting his jumper ten times in the defeat to South Africa. (He also made 13 tackles, which was the fourth highest in the Scottish side).
Against South Africa however, Scotland’s scrum seemed to falter, losing both of their own scrums and winning none against the head. This problem could again be thrown up against Australia, who seem to have flipped all traditions of having a weak scrum overnight. Now they are a dominant force in this area, with Sekope Kepu and Scott Sio at the heart of it all.
Quelling the Wallaby threat at the breakdown and stopping their scrum getting the march on will be the key areas for Scotland to target in this quarter final. Without Pocock, the former has suddenly become a lot more achievable, however the scrum could be the decisive aspect that unlocks Scotland’s game. If by some miracle they gain parity in both of these areas, then the Scots’ backline, as we saw in all their group games, is filled with attackers of a very high order, and also contains a goal kicker in Greig Laidlaw who seems to step up in the biggest of matches.
Scotland could be blown away on Sunday, but I don’t think they will be. Yes, it seems this Australia side have it all – a powerful pack, exciting backs, etc, etc. And I’m not about to deny that the Wallabies don’t play with emotion, but for sure Scotland will be wearing their hearts on their sleeves more than ever, and for the first half at least, adrenaline and passion may keep the scoreboard close. After that, it’s anyone’s guess, but Australia are favourites and I expect them to win.
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