Despite a 1-0 win on Wednesday night at Real Salt Lake, a win that significantly improved the Portland Timbers playoff chances, there was not a lot of hope going around in social media circles among Timbers fans after the win. Despite a win which puts the Timbers three points ahead of the San Jose Earthquakes for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, tied with the Seattle Sounders for fifth place, and however unlikely, in reach of second place in the West, very few people were excited about what the win meant.
While fans in Toronto were wildly cheering Toronto FC’s first ever MLS playoff berth, fans in Portland were lamenting what’s largely been a discouraging season, despite the likelihood of making the playoffs. Not to say Toronto FC fans shouldn’t be excited. They’re going to the playoffs, they’re playing exciting soccer and doing it for the most part well, and they’ve gotten to witness one of the greatest individual seasons in MLS history. But in Portland, despite a likely playoff berth, there’s a strong sentiment of “I can’t wait until next year,” and the teams play has been mostly discouraging for a while now.
When even the wins are discouraging, something has probably gone wrong in your season. Wednsday’s win, even if it couldn’t change the narrative of the 2015 season, set up well to be a cause for celebration. The Timbers were taking on Real Salt Lake, a fellow playoff contender and a team that’s become a bit of a rival for the Timbers. After a back and forth first half, RSL defender Jamison Olave was sent off early in the second half and the Timbers took the lead through a Fanendo Adi penalty. Up 1-0 and up a man in a game that was so significant for the team’s playoff aspirations could have led to a convincing win, a statement of intent, and a glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, the Timbers could do something with the remainder of their season.
Instead, somehow, things seemed to get worse for the Timbers after the red card. It’s often mentioned that a team down to 10 men can be tougher to break down than a team with 11 on the pitch. Players might pick up the intensity and work harder down a man, they’re typically likely to play more compact and disciplined, making it tough to score.
Teams with a man advantage often dominate possession, even if they manage few chances and fail to score. On Wednesday night, the opposite happened. In the first 50 minutes, the Timbers had the majority of possession in four out of ten five-minute intervals. Over the full 50 minutes, they were out-possessed, but they had spells of possession, spells of dominance. Over the last 40+ minutes, RSL out possessed the Timbers in every interval, and by significant margins.
Maybe (probably), they were being coached to sit back, be compact defensively, and not let themselves get beat on the counter. If that’s the case, it’s discouraging because the Timbers were up a man, and have the talent to dominate possession. We’ve seen them do it. Up a man, the Timbers should have been able to dominate possession AND keep themselves from being vulnerable to the counter. If they intentionally ceded possession when they were up a man, that’s discouraging from a tactical mentality perspective, and gives no hope that the Timbers have any chance of doing something in the playoffs.
Maybe the Timbers just weren’t good enough on the night to actually hold on to the ball. That would certainly be cause for concern. If a team (mostly) full of players who are pretty good with the ball at their feet, especially in midfield, can’t hold possession when they have a man advantage against a lower table team, the thought of them on the road in the playoffs is terrifying. Portland ended up with 39 percent of possession against 10-man RSL. Imagine what it will be against the 11-man Los Angeles Galaxy, or in the playoffs on the road.
Want more reason to be discouraged? How about the fact that the Timbers couldn’t even put together a cohesive counter-attack against a 10-man team that was throwing everyone forward in desperate search of a goal. At this point, it would clearly be too much to ask for a goal from the Timbers, but they couldn’t even put together a well worked counter-attack to generate a high quality chance.
After the game, Timbers Head Coach Caleb Porter was asked about the tactical plan on the night. His response:
“Yeah sometimes you get it right. I think we got it right with the system that we played and with our plan. But you only get it right if the players execute and perform. The players deserve all the credit. But I thought playing Nagbe in middle and second half moving Melano to the left and having Rodney lock up Beltran and having Melano go at Allen a bit unlocked the game.”
If Wednesday night was getting it right, I think I’d rather be wrong.
Timbers midfield playmaker Diego Valeri had this to say about the game:
“We controlled the ball against a very good team who has very good possession players and we had a lot of the ball so you have to be happy about that performance.”
Did he play in the game I watched?
Yes, the Timbers won. Yes, they put themselves in a very good position to make the playoffs. But go ahead, ask a Timbers fan if they’re excited about the playoffs. Good luck finding one who will say yes. You’re more likely to hear “I’m ready for next year,” because right now, even the wins are discouraging.
