This game was supposed to be the deciding game for the Big Ten West. Now it looks more like an elimination game for bowl eligibility. Both Nebraska and Wisconsin find themselves in weird situations coming of ugly Big Ten openers and both are in desperate need of a victory to stay in the race for the West Division title. Nebraska enters this game at 2-3 after an ugly 14-13 loss to Illinois in which a stagnant offense and terrible clock management spoiled a solid defensive performance. Wisconsin enters this game at 3-2 after losing their conference opener to Iowa 10-6. The Badgers lost despite out-gaining the Hawkeyes by almost 100 yards due to four turnovers. In this article we will look at position matchups to see which team will keep its Big Ten championship hopes alive this Saturday.
Nebraska vs Wisconsin Preview
Quarterback
Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong and Wisconsin’s Joel Stave find themselves in similar situations heading into Saturday’s game. Both are the focal points of their respective offenses, and both are coming off terrible Big Ten openers in which their mistakes cost their teams the win.
Joel Stave committed four turnovers against the Iowa Hawkeyes, two interceptions and two fumbles, and was unable to convert Wisconsin’s last gasp drive against the Hawkeyes in the fourth quarter. Stave has now thrown for 1,064 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 63.3% of his passes. Despite his solid stats, Stave has struggled mightily to lead the Badgers offense against quality defenses, as he has been unable to consistently complete deep passes against Iowa and Alabama.
Tommy Armstrong is coming off his worst game since his 2014 debacle against Wisconsin, as the junior completed just 10 of 31 passes for 105 yards and an interception against a less than stellar Illinois defense. Armstrong was also responsible for the now infamous third and seven play against Illinois, as the junior (stupidly) attempted a pass with 58 seconds left and the Fighting Illini having timeouts remaining. The pass fell incomplete and Illinois used the extra 35 seconds to mount a furious comeback drive to win the game.
Both of these quarterbacks have had moments of brilliance this season, Stave as the calm and collected field general of Wisconsin’s west coast offense, Armstrong as the focal point of Nebraska’s explosive spread attack. Both quarterbacks have also looked awful at times, Stave against Iowa and Armstrong against Illinois and for most of the first half against Miami. I’ll give a slight edge to Nebraska, as Armstrong is playing at home and gives his team more of a dual threat presence than the 6’5″ statue in Joel Stave.
Slight Edge: Nebraska
Running Back
Both Wisconsin and Nebraska are missing their departed superstars at running back, as replacing Melvin Gordon and Ameer Abdullah has been tougher than expected.
Wisconsin was expecting Corey Clement to take over for Gordon, but the junior played just one game in 2015 before undergoing sports hernia surgery and is not expected to play Saturday. Replacing Clement is the duo of redshirt freshman Taiwan Deal and former walk-on Dare Ogunbowale.
Deal, a highly touted recruit out of DeMatha high school in Maryland, steadily improved throughout the non-conference slate before hitting a wall against the Iowa Hawkeyes. He has rushed for 349 yards and four touchdowns on 77 carries, with the majority of his yardage coming in games against Hawaii and Troy. Ogunbowale had a solid first game replacing Clement, rushing for 112 yards against Miami of Ohio, but has seen his carries reduced as Deal has emerged. Ogunbowale has rushed for 309 yards and three touchdowns on 59 carries while also catching 14 passes for 109 yards.
Nebraska has reshuffled their running back rotation throughout this season, but appears to have settled on the three man rotation of Andy Janovich, Terrell Newby, and true freshman Devine Ozigbo. Ozigbo burst onto the scene last week against Illinois, rushing for 70 yards and a touchdown on just seven carries. He was one of few bright spots on the Nebraska offense last week. Andy Janovich, a fullback out of Gretna, Nebraska, has emerged as one of Nebraska’s best playmakers this season, as he has run for 111 yards on just 16 carries, all of which have come in the last two games. Terrell Newby rounds out the rotation, as the junior from Los Angeles has seen his carries reduced ever since his a98 yard performance against South Alabama.
While neither team is quite on their 2014 level at this position, both teams have an interesting rotation with solid players. I’ll give a slight edge to the Badgers due to the nice combination of the powerful inside runner Deal and the all purpose back Ogunbowale.
Slight Edge: Wisconsin
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
The main difference between these two teams is health, Nebraska is finally full strength at receiver with the return of Demornay Pierson-El. Wisconsin meanwhile is missing their top receiver and tight end due to injuries.
Wisconsin’s receivers have shown noticeable improvement in new head coach Paul Chryst’s offense. Their two top receivers this season have been senior Alex Erickson and junior Rob Wheelwright. Erickson has emerged as one of the top receivers in the Big Ten with 26 catches for 350 yards and one touchdown, but he is questionable for the Husker game after suffering a concussion against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Wheelwright meanwhile has caught 14 passes for 180 yards and co-leads the Badgers with three touchdown catches. Wisconsin’s top tight end Austin Traylor also exited the Iowa game with injury and will not play against Nebraska. He will be replaced by Sophomore Troy Fumagalli, who caught three passes for 22 yards against the Hawkeyes once Traylor left the game.
Nebraska’s receiving corps was beginning to make its claim as the best in the Big Ten before a dismal showing against Illinois in which the entire receiving corps accounted for just 21 yards on three catches. Juniors Brandon Reilly and Jordan Westerkamp lead the way for Nebraska, as both receivers have over 350 yards receiving thus far in the 2015 season. Stanley Morgan and Alonzo Moore have emerged as solid third and fourth receivers, but the X factor is Pierson-El, an explosive sophomore who is in his second game back from a broken foot. The tight end position has slowly emerged for the Huskers this season, as Sam Cotton and Cethan Carter have improved during their junior seasons and give the Huskers short yardage receiving options.
Edge: Nebraska
Offensive Line
Neither of these teams offensive lines are up to their usual standards, as both units had to replace three senior starters from their 2014 units.
Wisconsin was forced to replace fifth year seniors Dallas Lewallen, Kyle Costigan, and second round pick Rob Havenstein from their 2014 unit. Replacing those three were redshirt freshmen Michael Deiter, Micah Kapoi, and Jacob Maxwell. Those three have shown flashes of greatness this season against Hawaii and Troy, but all three have struggled against top competition. The veterans of the group are senior left tackle Tyler Marz and Junior center Dan Voltz. The Wisconsin offensive line has paved the way for the Badgers to average a solid 167 rushing yards per game while allowing quarterback Joel Stave to be sacked seven times thus far this season.
Nebraska was forced to replace their interior offensive line, as Jake Cotton, Mike Moudy, and Mark Pelini all graduated. Nebraska replaced them with seniors Chongo Kondolo and Ryne Reeves as weel as junior walk on Dylan Utter. All things considered, this line has played pretty well through five games, paving the way for Nebraska to average 193 rushing yards per game and allowing quarterback Tommy Armstrong to get sacked just five times. Nebraska has struggled to run the ball inside when they have needed to however, and that has cost the Huskers two winnable games against BYU and Illinois.
This one was a bit to close for me to decide, both lines have some nice pieces but both lines also have some flaws that keep them from becoming a dominant unit.
Even
Defensive Line
Wisconsin is one of the few Big Ten teams to employ a 3-4 defense, and because of their scheme you don’t often see their defensive linemen making a ton of splash plays. Despite their lack of flash, the Badgers defensive line is a consistent and solid group led by junior defensive end Arthur Goldberg, and they do a tremendous job of holding their ground and allowing the Wisconsin linebackers to fly around and make plays.
Nebraska prefers to use a 4-3 defense and has seen their defensive line slowly improve through five games. Junior Maliek Collins burst out of his early season funk with a tremendous performance against Illinois, as the junior totaled nine tackles and 1.5 sacks while victimizing Illinois’ top offensive lineman Ted Karras. Nebraska has also seen redshirt freshman Freedom Akinmoladun emerge as a pass rushing force, as the converted tight end has 4.5 sacks on the season.
While this is a fairly even matchup, the return of defensive tackle Vincent Valentine puts Nebraska at a slight advantage over the Wisconsin Badgers, as the junior is a consistent run stopper and frees up Collins in pass rushing situations.
Edge: Nebraska
Linebackers
Wisconsin’s defense is geared to allow their linebackers to make plays, and they have two of the best defensive playmakers in the nation in Joe Schobert and Vince Biegel. Schobert, a former walk on, has an unreal nine sacks through five games and has emerged as a serious contender for the Butkus award while Biegel has quietly added 26 tackles and three sacks through five games. Together, they form arguably the best outside linebacker duo in the country. While the outside linebackers were set coming into the season, the Badgers were extremely young at inside linebacker where they were starting TJ Edwards and Chris Orr, both of whom were redshirt freshman. The two youngsters have excelled in Dave Aranda’s defense though, as Orr has tallied 32 tackles while Edwards has racked up 29 tackles through five games.
Nebraska was decimated by injuries at the linebacker position early this season, as starters Josh Banderas and Michael Rose-Ivey as well as backup Marcus Newby went down with groin injuries. Luckily for the Husker defense, true freshman Dedrick Young and former walk on Chris Weber have emerged to keep things together. Weber leads Nebraska with 35 tackles thus far this season, 17 of which came in a fantastic performance against Illinois. Young has had some rough moments early in the season, mainly against Southern Miss, but the young man rebounded with a tremendous showing against Illinois, racking up 11 tackles against the Fighting Illini.
Nebraska’s linebackers are improving with each game, but Wisconsin still has a distinct advantage at linebacker due to the presence of Schobert and Biegel
Big Edge: Wisconsin
Secondary
Wisconsin’s secondary has been solid this season, as senior safety Mike Caputo has led a unit that is currently 33rd in the nation in passing yards allowed, allowing opponents to throw for only 183.6 yards per game. Nebraska is led by junior safety Nate Gerry, and the secondary finally showed some signs of life after a horrendous four-game stretch to begin the season. Nebraska has finally settled on a three-man rotation at cornerback with Jonathan Rose, Joshua Kalu, and Chris Jones, and the secondary played much more aggressively last week against Illinois. Despite these improvements, Nebraska is still dead last in the country in pass defense, allowing 353.8 passing yards per game. So we have to give a big edge to the Badgers.
Big Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Nebraska’s special teams have emerged as a major strength this season, as sophomore Drew Brown shook off a rough season opener to make 10 of last 12 field goal attempts, while junior punter Sam Foltz has recovered from an ankle injury to win Big Ten special teams player of the week last Saturday. The Greeley, Nebraska native is now averaging 44 yards per punt this season. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is still trying to get their kicking situation figured out. Sophomore Rafael Galianone, a Brazil native, is the Badgers current starter at kicker, but he is six for ten on field goals this season and has struggled with consistency. Punter Drew Meyer had a rough weekend against Iowa as well, averaging just 31 yards per punt against the Hawkeyes and failing to consistently pin Iowa deep. Wisconsin also has to replace their punt returner, as Alex Erickson appears unlikely to play this Saturday.
Edge: Nebraska
FINAL CONCLUSION
Nebraska fans have seen this movie far to many times; a Nebraska team plays Wisconsin in a crucial game and gets embarrassed. It happened in 2011 when Nebraska got ran over by the Badgers 48-17 in their first ever Big Ten game. It happened in 2012, when Nebraska’s Rose Bowl hopes were shattered by a 7-5 Wisconsin team in an embarrassing 70-31 loss in the Big Ten title game. It even happened in 2014, when an 8-1 Nebraska team with an outside chance of reaching the College Football Playoff was crushed 59-24.
While it is understandable that Husker fans are having nightmares about that happening again, I don’t think that it will happen this year. Wisconsin doesn’t have the same talent at the skill positions as they did in previous years, there is no Russell Wilson, Monte Ball, or Melvin Gordon on the 2015 Badger offense, and the Badger line isn’t quite on the level it was during the Bret Bielema and Gary Andersen coaching tenures.
That being said, I don’t think Nebraska is going to be able to pull out the victory on Saturday. While Wisconsin’s offense isn’t great and is hobbled by injury, the Badger defense is fantastic, as Joe Schobert and Vince Biegel lead the best linebacker unit in the Big Ten. I think this will end up being a low scoring slugfest that comes down to the wire, but I feel that Wisconsin will make one more play than Nebraska and win by a field goal.
Wisconsin: 20
Nebraska: 17
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