People are talking about chaos already this early in the season. It’s silly. You can’t have chaos because no one has separated themselves. This isn’t 2007 where contenders are falling left and right in the last few weeks of the season. Do you know why it’s not? Because we’re not near the final weeks of the season yet.
We still have 22 undefeated teams and 25 teams with only one loss. That is a serious pool of teams from which to find our Playoff contenders. Sure, a bunch of the teams we expected to be those contenders in the preseason or early in the season have fallen off. That happens. Some of the teams we expected to be contenders in the preseason and early in the season are stepping up. That happens too.
The point is that it is far too early in the season to talk about legitimate Playoff contenders and the Playoff race. There is no Playoff race yet. We have a lot of teams jockeying for position to enter that race when it comes down to it. Teams will win games and prove themselves. Other teams will lose games and fall out of the conversation. And we might have a general idea of what those teams are right now. But we certainly don’t know even close to all of them.
So please, stop talking about “chaos”. If teams in the top 4-10 start losing games in the last few weeks of the season, we’ll have our pre-Playoff chaos. Right now, though, we just haven’t discovered which of the teams are going to be in that top 4-10 space when we get there.
Week 5 CFP Implications: Teams Eliminated from Playoff Contention
We did not put this section in CFP Implications last year because with no real knowledge or precedent to see how the committee worked, it would have been a bit presumptuous to try and guess who had no real chance of making the playoff. Now, though, we can bring this section (which we had back in the BCS days) to this column. We are going to be very gun-shy on eliminating teams until we are absolutely sure, but we highly doubt we will ever have to bring back anyone we eliminated. So far, we have eliminated 76 teams, well over half of FBS. We are also down to just five Group of 5 teams remaining, though Toledo probably never even had a chance to begin with.
AAC: Only Temple, Memphis, Houston, and Navy have not yet been eliminated
ACC: Louisville, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Georgia Tech
Big XII: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech
Big Ten: Purdue, Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland
Conference USA: All have been eliminated
MAC: Only Toledo is not yet eliminated
Mountain West: All have been eliminated
Pac 12: Washington State
SEC: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina
Sun Belt: All have been eliminated
Independents: Army, BYU
So how is this jockeying for position working out right now? Well, Clemson made a huge stride for themselves by hanging on against Notre Dame this week. If they had lost this game, their Playoff outlook (as well as that of the entire ACC) would have been pretty bleak. Now, though, it should be relatively smooth sailing. The Tigers know they control their own destiny. Win eight more games and they are in. They knew before this game that winning out almost definitely meant a Playoff berth, but it feels much more realistic now. If they can beat Florida State they might even be able to withstand a random upset along the way because of their quality wins over Notre Dame and Florida State.
Speaking of the Seminoles, they have looked decidedly unimpressive as we have come through the season. They haven’t blown anyone out and the offense lives too much off of big plays. The defense is still stout, though, and the offense should find their way. They won’t have so many valuable wins during the season either, in an ACC that looks like it will see four year-end ranked teams at absolute best. They will get a nonconference tilt to end the year against Florida, though, a game which picked up a ton of value this week. If Florida State has victories against Florida and Clemson, they may also be able to withstand an upset loss somewhere during the season.
The Big Ten’s main two contenders–Ohio State and Michigan State–both underwhelmed again this week. Each of those teams are supremely talented; the results just haven’t borne that out. Meanwhile, contenders are rising in the Big Ten West. Iowa is now 5-0 with wins over three Power 5 teams, including a victory over a surprisingly-decent Pitt team. Northwestern looks like they may have one of the most dominant defenses in the country this year and they currently have two nonconference wins over ranked opponents. Don’t count them out. If they lose one conference game but win the Big Ten, it is highly unlikely that they will miss the Playoff.
The Big XII is shaping up and while it looks like there are three main contenders, we should really just be in wait-and-see mode when it comes to that conference. They play a true round robin and someone will come out of that conference as the champion. If that team in undefeated, they’ll be a Playoff team. If the team has one loss, they should be a serious contender, depending on how the rest of the country looks. If that one-loss team is Baylor, though, they could be in serious trouble. We saw Baylor get punished for their awful nonconference schedule last year. The schedule isn’t any better this year so Baylor should be in the exact same position.
Again, it’s too early to really look at the contenders from the SEC and Pac 12. The Pac 12 is down to just two undefeated teams, and those two will meet this week when Cal visits Utah. But the champions of both of those conferences, which so far have been the top two conferences in nonconference play, should be in definite contention for the Playoff. They will have the best chance of the one-loss teams and if a two-loss team makes it to the Playoff, that team will come from one of these two conferences. And we have to keep an eye on Notre Dame, who will still be in contention for the Playoff at 11-1 if they win out.
If Michigan beats Northwestern this week, our next article will focus on them. Also, it is a little too early to discuss which Group of 5 champion is in best position to be the highest-ranked, but right now we should be focusing on Toledo, Boise State, and whoever wins the American.
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