Lottery picks are usually drafted with high expectations, so it’s not much of a surprise when the Andrew Wiggins’ and Elfrid Payton’s of the world are productive players in their rookie seasons. But how about the players drafted after that? Most years, only a handful of players drafted 15th and beyond play significant roles for their teams in year one. Could anyone have predicted Denver’s Jusuf Nurkic and Philly/Houston’s KJ McDaniels to be those sleeper picks who produced as rookies? If Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Jahlil Okafor have great rookie seasons, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise, granted they were the top three overall selections in the draft. As for the rest of the class of 2015, there are a few players whose potential to produce in year one stands out among the rest.
NBA Rookies Who Will Surprisingly Produce in Year One
Jerian Grant – I’ve always been impressed with Grant’s skillset, as he is a well-polished, NBA-ready point guard with excellent court vision and a high basketball IQ. I thought he would have been a great fit for Oklahoma City at pick #14 on draft day, but he instead slid five more spots down to #19 where the Knicks were able to snag him in a trade. The Knicks backcourt last year was pretty dreadful, with the likes of Shane Larkin and Alexey Shved playing big minutes towards the end of the season. As for this year, ahead of Grant on the depth chart at both guard positions figure to be Jose Calderon, Arron Afflalo, and Langston Galloway, leaving plenty of playing time for the Notre Dame rookie. Calderon’s health is no sure thing, nor is the guarantee that Galloway’s will build off of his success last season. Grant’s ability to learn the triangle offense remains to be seen, but there are very few better fits amongst the later draft selections than Jerian Grant and the New York Knicks.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – Brooklyn acquired Hollis-Jefferson, the 24th overall pick, in a somewhat surprising trade, sending center Mason Plumlee to Portland on draft day. Hollis-Jefferson is scrappy, defensive-minded small forward with pretty good ball handling skills for his size. His three point shooting is pretty putrid right now, but if he improves his mid-range jump shot, then he will probably be able to find enough ways to score; Hollis-Jefferson is often compared to a poor man’s Andre Iguodala. After two years of an expensive roster filled with disappointing and aging veterans, the Nets organization is starving for youth and energy, which is exactly what Hollis-Jefferson brings to the table. He has an enthusiastic energy on and off the court, something that can be contagious to the rest of this revamped Brooklyn team that is all of a sudden filled with unproven youngsters. Given the lack of talent on the roster and desperate need for defense and youth in Brooklyn, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is in the ideal situation to have a very productive rookie season.
Justin Anderson – Anderson was selected with 21st overall pick by the Mavs, and unlike the previous two rookies, he was not involved in any draft day trades. Anderson is a hard nosed defender whose shooting stroke improved very much during his senior season at the University of Virginia. Even though he hasn’t played a single minute in the NBA, it seems as if Anderson will have a very important role for this Dallas team that has its sights set on a playoff berth. The Mavericks once looked like a perennial top 5 team in the West with DeAndre Jordan dominating the paint inside, but that vision didn’t last very long, leaving Mark Cuban and the rest of the organization in a tough spot, with very little talent surrounding the starting lineup. On the wing, Jeremy Evans and John Jenkins are Rick Carlisle’s two best options (other than Anderson) to back up Chandler Parsons and Wesley Matthews. In other words, expect Anderson to see a lot of court time, matching up on defense against some of the top scorers in the league. Anderson has all the tools to be a solid role player for the Mavericks this season.
