On Saturday, Sporting Kansas City, fresh (or maybe not so fresh) off their midweek U.S. Open Cup triumph, head to Portland to take on the Portland Timbers in a pivotal Western Conference playoff matchup.
With the Timbers just one point behind SKC in the standings heading into the final few weeks of the season, and San Jose lurking close behind in the battle for playoff spots, this game is one of the most important of the season. A win for Portland could see them jump as high as fourth. A win for SKC could see them jump to third. A loss or draw for either and a win for San Jose would see the Earthquakes jump into a playoff spot, though both Portland and SKC have a game in hand on the Quakes.
American Soccer Analysis’ playoff probabilities gives both teams great odds of making the playoffs, 86 percent likelihood for SKC and 74 percent for the Timbers. They currently make Sporting the favorite to finish 4th, and Portland the favorite to finish 6th, and this weekend’s result will go a long way towards determining who finishes where.
Given the importance of this match, I teamed up with Laura McFayden (@LWOSLaura) to answer the key questions each side faces heading into Saturday’s matchup. Here’s the key questions each team must answer as the Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City battle for playoff position.
Questions for Portland:
1) Will the Timbers play like the team that showed up in Columbus last week, or the team that lost to New York the week before?
Eric – That’s THE big question that has faced the Timbers all season. They’ve put in some great performances, as well as some perfectly awful performances. The short answer is that they need to play like the team that beat Columbus. Even against what should be a tired SKC team, Portland needs to play with urgency from first kick. In the last couple years, the Timbers have shown the ability to perform when their back is against a wall. In desperate need of three points last week, Darlington Nagbe took absolute control of the game against Columbus. He, and the rest of the Timbers attack, will need to show that aggression once again.
2) How will the Timbers handle the loss of Will Johnson for what looks like the rest of the season?
Eric – At training on Thursday, Will Johnson told reporters that he had the last two screws removed from his leg this week, screws that were in as the result of his broken leg last season, and would be out of training until at least the end of the month. To the casual observer this might look like a problem. The Timbers now hit the home stretch without their captain and one of their starting central midfielders. However, as much as Will Johnson is loved in Portland, he hasn’t really been the real Will Johnson in 2015, and the Timbers for the most part have looked better without him.
Last week, Jack Jewsbury took Johnson’s place alongside Diego Chara and the result was one of the better midfield performances from the Timbers this season. Jewsbury plays with more positional discipline than Johnson, which frees Chara up to be more aggressive in pressing high defensively (Note: Chara does this even when Johnson plays, but the balance hasn’t been there this year, often leaving one of them out of position and the back line exposed). Shutting Johnson down for the season is probably best (and overdue) for Johnson and the Timbers. It gives the Timbers consistency in the midfield game to game, and let’s their captain focus on getting healthy for the 2016 season.
Questions for SKC:
1) How badly will playing extra time in the US Open Cup Final on Wednesday hurt Sporting KC in this important game?
Laura – By the end of the first half of extra time, every player on the pitch was tired and dragging. They weren’t the best team out there long before that. One thing Sporting knows however, is how to get results when you’re down and outmatched. With key players like Benny Feilhaber, Graham Zusi, Krisztian Nemeth, Dom Dwyer (mostly), and Matt Besler sitting out against the Seattle Sounders last Sunday, their fatigue won’t be as terrible. This team knows how important a result is in Portland will be determined and confident coming off a Cup win. We also learned last Sunday that the younger and newer players of SKC can step up and steal a point when needed.
2) Will Sporting KC cope with Paulo Nagamura’s suspension?
Laura – Nagamura has been much needed this season following Roger Espinoza’s injury. For the second time this week, a staple member of SKC’s lineup is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. The reserves pulled off a point against the Sounders with Besler and Feilhaber suspended, but Nagamura was an essential. Newcomer Jordi Quintilla is fitting right in the SKC midfield and Mikey Lopez has always stepped up when needed. This is a must win game for the club and the midfield could be the only shaky piece for Sporting KC.
Lineup and Score Predictions
Eric – (4-2-3-1) Adam Kwarasey, Alvas Powell, Nat Borchers, Liam Ridgewell, Diego Chara, Jack Jewsbury, Darlington Nagbe, Diego Valeri, Rodney Wallace, Fanendo Adi
I think Caleb Porter will stick with what worked against Columbus. Rodney Wallace gives the Timbers more balance on the left and better defensive play than Lucas Melano, Jewsbury has been solid next to Chara, and Adi has been their most dangerous forward all year.
Nagbe, like the Timbers, has been inconsistent between his dominating performances and those when he is invisible. I think this will be another dominant performance. He and Valeri know they need to step up, and it showed against Columbus. Their constant threat will be too much for a tired SKC defense, and Portland wins 3-1, jumping SKC in the standings.
Laura – (4-3-3) Tim Melia, Jalil Anibaba, Matt Besler, Erik Palmer-Brown, Amadou Dia, Jordi Quintilla, Soni Mustivar, Mikey Lopez, Connor Hallisey, Jacob Peterson, Bernardo Anor
Coming off 120 minutes and PKs, Peter Vermes might give his side a rest and give the lineup that held the Sounders to a draw another chance. Kevin Ellis and Matt Besler both played that full game, but one of them will need to start this one at center back. The first half might be a struggle, but Quintilla has had great looks at goal when he’s played and his confidence will be high.
Expect second half subs to reinvigorate the team and even if they go down a goal or two early, it will end in a 2-2 draw.
Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images
