This season, the Georgia-Alabama game is being met with a lot of hype. Like it was when the two teams played for the SEC Championship in 2012 with a shot at a spot in the National Championship game. Like it was for the infamous “blackout” in Athens in 2008. The last two meetings have gone to the Alabama Crimson Tide in heartbreaking fashion for the Georgia Bulldogs. Can Georgia head coach Mark Richt and his team avoid another disappointing loss in a high-profile game against Alabama?
The two teams will meet in Athens on Saturday at a crossroads: the winner will be on the fast track toward a spot in the College Football Playoff and the loser will be sent down a path of disappointment and regret. For at least the past three years, the SEC East has been looked at as the little brother of the bigger, badder SEC West. Georgia has been down the “loser’s” path numerous times over the years under Richt, settling for good, but not great 10-2 or 9-3 finishes. Heading into this year’s Georgia-Alabama game the narrative is slightly different.
Alabama enters as the underdog. Yes, you read that right. For the first time since the 2009 SEC Championship Game against the Florida Gators – a 72-game streak – Alabama head coach Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide are not favored heading into a game. This Alabama team needs a win Saturday to avoid its first 0-2 start in SEC play since 1990, and you can bet they’ll come out fired up and ready to go on the road in Athens. Georgia, which has been known to fold under pressure and lose these “big” games, plans to treat this game just like any other game. They are downplaying their status as the favorite. For the Dawgs, it’s business as usual after a 4-0 start.
Let’s take a look at how Georgia and Alabama stack up on the field:
Quarterback
Both Georgia quarterback Greyson Lambert and Alabama quarterback Jacob Coker are first-year starters for their respective teams. Lambert transferred to Georgia from Virginia prior to this season, and Coker transferred to Alabama from Florida State before the 2014 season. For Coker, it’s been an up-and-down year, as he has gone 68-for-123 (55.3%) for 786 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Lambert has seen some inconsistency as well, but he has completed 33 of his last 35 passes for 476 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. Not bad for a guy who started 0-for-7 against Vanderbilt. Though Coker has six touchdown passes in his last two games, he has struggled to find his rhythm, and that won’t cut it against Georgia. Against a common opponent in Louisiana-Monroe, Lambert by far outperformed Coker (74.5 QBR vs. 23.8 QBR) and if the offensive line can continue to perform well for Georgia, he will win the quarterback battle on Saturday.
EDGE: Georgia
Running Backs
When you hear about the elite running backs in the country, two of them play for Georgia and Alabama. Georgia’s Nick Chubb and Alabama’s Derrick Henry are both in the running for the Heisman Trophy (with LSU’s Leonard Fournette) and will be on display when Alabama comes to Athens. Just looking at pure stats, it’s hard to differentiate between the two star backs. Henry has 67 carries, 422 yards and eight touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry (7 receptions, 51 yards in the passing game). Chubb has 71 carries, 599 yards and six touchdowns on 8.4 yards per carry (3 receptions, 37 yards, one touchdown in the passing game). Chubb is also looking to break Herschel Walker’s school record with his 13th straight 100-yard rushing game. What’s more, the two backups could be starters at basically every other school. Georgia’s Sony Michel boasts a healthy 7.0 yards per carry average and is extremely effective in the passing game. Alabama’s Kenyan Drake is also an effective pass catcher and is a speedy counterpart to the brute strength of Henry. Expect both teams to try and control the clock with their run games against defenses built to stop the run. Though it’s close, I give the slight edge to Georgia.
EDGE: Georgia
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
The emergence of Malcolm Mitchell for the Georgia Bulldogs cannot be understated. He has exploded on to the scene following two injury-plagued seasons to the tune of 20 receptions for 306 yards and three touchdowns. Behind him, Lambert has spread the ball around to many different receivers – five different receivers/tight ends have at least five catches on the season. Alabama is a bit thin at wide receiver after losing Amari Cooper, Christion Jones and DeAndrew White from last year’s squad, but they have dependable tight end O.J. Howard (13 receptions, 183 yards) and sophomore wide receiver ArDarius Stewart (21 receptions, 177 yards and two touchdowns) as targets. Alabama’s quarterbacks are averaging just 6.32 yards per attempt, which limits the effectiveness of quick, deep threats like Stewart and Robert Foster. If Malcolm Mitchell continues his resurgence against a suspect Alabama secondary, watch out!
EDGE: Georgia
Georgia Offensive Line vs. Alabama Defensive Line
Alabama has one of the top run defenses in the country because of their physical, attacking defensive line. Though Georgia is 17th in the country in rushing yards per game (257.8), the offensive line will face its toughest test yet against A’Shawn Robinson, Darren Lake, Jonathan Allen and the revolving door of talented defensive lineman. Georgia’s offensive line is perennially underrated and perhaps that is a good thing. It’s unlikely Alabama takes anything for granted in a “must-win” game for them, but this offensive line led by Greg Pyke and Isaiah Wynn has the talent to win the battle in the trenches. The question is: will they?
EDGE: Alabama
Georgia Defensive Line vs. Alabama Offensive Line
The Alabama offensive line is good, but not great. This is not the same dominant unit we are used to seeing for the Crimson Tide. The unit has surrendered five sacks this season, including two against Louisiana-Monroe. Georgia is ranked 30th in rushing defense; however, they have given up chunks of yardage on the ground in blowouts after pulling their starters. The Georgia defensive line is fast and powerful, and like Alabama, they have plenty of talent to rotate in and out. Stopping running backs like Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake will prove difficult, but not impossible.
EDGE: Georgia
Linebackers/Secondary
If you are a fan of the Atlanta Falcons, and you watched this past weekend’s game against the Dallas Cowboys and Brandon Weeden, you saw what Georgia should expect out of Alabama and Jacob Coker – a conservative passing game that doesn’t take many deep shots and an offense that wants to run first. It took Atlanta an entire half to figure it out, but once they did, Dallas was done. Georgia’s linebackers – Leonard Floyd, Jake Ganus and Jordan Jenkins – should be excited for Saturday’s game, as they could make a living in the Alabama backfield. Georgia defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt will have a scheme in place that stacks the box against the run until Coker proves he can make the deep throw or maneuver out of the pocket under pressure. This will take lessen the burden on the secondary, which has been solid for the Dawgs. Alabama’s secondary has allowed 210.3 passing yards per game and six passing touchdowns, and if Greyson Lambert can continue his recent streak of extreme accuracy without throwing an interception, Georgia could find sustained success. Alabama has forced its fair share of turnovers (7), but if the offense continues to turn the ball over like it did against Ole Miss, the defense will be on the field for a long time – and Georgia will make them pay.
EDGE: Georgia
Special Teams
Based on recent developments, Georgia could be without its star kick returner/punt returner Isaiah McKenzie against Alabama. This season has not been pretty on special teams for either team. Alabama kicker Adam Griffith has made just three out of seven field goals this year, and is a disturbing one for three from 40-49 yards. Georgia’s Marshall Morgan has hit four of six field goals on the year (he missed both against Vanderbilt), but has not been as effective as in previous years. Georgia has serious problems covering downfield on special teams, which could prove disastrous against a team like Alabama. You rarely notice special teams performance until it is subpar. Alabama cannot leave points on the field by missing field goals. Georgia cannot give Alabama good starting field position because of poor kick coverage. Whoever wins the special teams battle might just win the game.
EDGE: Even
Prediction
The Georgia-Alabama game has all the makings of a heavyweight fight. Two prized fighters at running back, a game with conference and national implications, and a matchup with tangible hype. Can Georgia find a way to exorcise the demons from the previous two games against Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide? Can Alabama vault itself back into the College Football Playoff conversation? Will Nick Chubb continue his streak of 100-yard rushing performances? Watch Georgia-Alabama at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS this Saturday to find out. I think this year Georgia wins at home in a close one – 31-27 – and takes the road less traveled in Athens: the path leading toward a truly special season.
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