As Wales’ captain Sam Warburton said this week, “You know it’s coming, it’s a huge game. It’s one of the biggest Wales versus England games in history.”
Not like an England Wales game to bring out the hyperbole is it? In fairness, it may, almost be justified on this occasion. Since the draw was made three years ago, this Group has been the centre of attention for most observers.
From the days of Welsh dominance at the National Stadium, to the days of humiliating Welsh defeats anywhere and everywhere it seems, to now, when both teams are pretty equally matched.
As Warren Gatland pointed out this week, the team’s record against England whilst he has been coach, is 5 wins and 5 defeats. In World Cup matches, they are 1-1. England have won the last two encounters, but this week, their players and management are still referring to the 30-3 defeat in 2013. It appears that’s a ghost that still hasn’t been exorcised for them. Perhaps it will be used as further motivation, if any were needed, for the latest instalment on Saturday night.
After the injuries and the stuttering, unconvincing display against Uruguay, and games against Fiji and Australia to come after this, this game will most likely make or break Wales’ involvement in the tournament. That’s the danger for Wales, though, looking too far ahead.
The challenge for Wales on Saturday is to first be ready for a huge physical battle. Most critics, especially this side of the Severn Bridge, appear to believe England have panicked in their selection. Of course, that inside three of Farrell, Burgess and Barritt, has a different emphasis to what has taken to the field in the past.
Wales have their own concerns. Liam Williams has played less than a half of rugby in the build-up to this World Cup, and starts at full-back. Hallam Amos is an International novice and forms part of a back three unit that has had no time to gel.
Up front, Samson Lee, who was declared something of a Saviour on his arrival on the Wales scene, replacing Adam Jones, only has a place on the bench, and is replaced by Tomas Francis.
But it is almost unthinkable that the foundations England have relied on in the past, will fail to function once again in this match, so the discipline for Wales must be first class – less than double figure penalty count seems to be the target – especially if the TMO and the big screen, is involved as much as last weekend.
Although Wales have lost their last two encounters 29-18 and 21-16, they weren’t despatched totally. The game in 2014 at Twickenham will be the warning for Wales though – fail to turn up at Headquarters and it’s unlikely you will come away with a victory.
Indeed, both games were lost as a result of lapses of concentration, rather than England being overwhelmingly better. Saturday will be no different, but the danger for Wales will once again lie in appearing to fall for the hype, as they did before the game in the Millennium Stadium earlier this year. It appeared then it was a case of England’s injuries apparently weakening them so much that the result was a foregone conclusion and Wales fell for the sucker punch.
For victory, Wales’ error count has to be greatly reduced, and that gain-line battle between the two midfields will probably need to be won by Wales. Fundamentally, the result matters and has so much riding on it. In fact, this will be a career defining encounter for many of those involved. Coaches and players know that their reputations are on the line – on both sides.
Were Wales to win, they would have a little bit more of a comfort blanket, and opportunity to qualify for the knock-out stages. Should they lose, it will be hugely difficult to beat Fiji and Australia, who they haven’t beaten since 2008.
Fundamentally, this isn’t the second of 4 group games. This is a defining game for Wales – that could well decide their World Cup future. Beat the hosts, in their own back yard and the confidence boost will be huge. Lose and the whole campaign could well come tumbling down round their ears.
England starting XV: Brown, Watson, Barritt, Burgess, May, Farrell, Youngs; Marler, Youngs, Cole, Parling, Lawes, Wood, Robshaw, Vunipola
Replacements: Webber, Vunipola, Brookes, Launchbury, Haskell, Wigglesworth, Ford, Goode
Wales starting XV: Liam Williams, North, S Williams, Roberts, Amos, Biggar, G Davies; Jenkins, Baldwin, Francis, B Davies, Wyn Jones, Lydiate, Warburton, Faletau
Replacements: Owens, Jarvis, Lee, Charteris, Tipuric, Lloyd Williams, Priestland, Cuthbert
“Main Photo”
