College football week 4 is fast approaching with another full slate of action for your viewing pleasure. Our panel of four experts (Steen Kirby, Mike Loveall, Yesh Ginsburg, and John Bava) will be predicting the five biggest games of the week. Three of the five we’re analyzing in week 4 are huge early season Pac-12 showdowns that will go a long way towards determining who emerges out of that conference later in the year. We also profile a match-up of two SEC teams looking to return to prominence as well as the Big 12 opener for third-ranked TCU, a game where they might need to be on upset alert.
The standing of our experts so far is as follows:
Tailgate Pick ‘Em College Football Week 4 Predictions
(All rankings are according to the AP Poll and all times are Eastern.)
Tennessee at Florida (3:30 PM, CBS)
Line: Florida -1.0
Yesh:
Florida just announced it was suspending players. The Florida program is a bit of a mess right now, but a mess that’s doing well and seems to be heading in the right direction under Jim McElwain. Tennessee is riding off the momentum of the end of last season, but hasn’t done too much to back that up this year. Their offense is impressive. Their defense was tested against Bowling Green, who probably has a better offense than the Gators. This game probably goes down to the wire and the one who makes the least mistakes wins.
Prediction: Florida 26, Tennessee 23
Steen:
It’s been over talked that the Vols haven’t beaten the Gators in quite some time, and with the Florida offense looking to be sputtering, Tennessee should get a road upset this time. Josh Dobbs, Jalen Hurd and a crop of talented WRs feature on a Tennessee offense that has scored 50+ twice this year, and 24 against a talented Oklahoma defense. That OU loss was a gut punch for Butch Jones team, but given it was non-conference, they still have everything to play for in the SEC East and should be plenty motivated against a rival as they look to continue the resurgence of their program.
The Gators are 3-0 but seem to be overrated to me, part time QB Treon Harris is suspended due to a failed drug test and Freshman starting QB Will Grier didn’t look great against Kentucky last week. Florida also struggled with a middling ECU team, and Tennessee is a step up. Look for Josh Barnett and company to get pressure with the Gators featuring a young and porous offensive line, and a Tennessee rout is possible. UF also lost starting CB Jalen Tabor due to the drug testing issue.
Prediction: Tennessee 28, Florida 10
Mike:
Florida rides a decade long win streak into this weekend’s match-up against the Vols. With Missouri and South Carolina looking less than impressive thus far, this game might be for second place in the SEC East and a New Year’s Day bowl, a far cry from the implications the game carried in the 1990s. The streak says Florida, but the metrics say Tennessee. Florida’s new coach and staff have struggled a little bit with East Carolina and Kentucky and their quarterback play has been shaky in the early season. Tennessee is a play away from being a Top 15-ranked team. Tennessee wins for the first time in, well, forever.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Florida 13
John:
The Vols travel to The Swamp this weekend and have their first real chance to bounce back from a disappointing overtime loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago. This used to be one of the better rivalries in the SEC when Phillip Fulmer and Steve Spurrier were patrolling the sidelines in Knoxville and Gainesville respectively. The hope amongst fans of these programs is that Butch Jones and Jim McElwain are the coaches that can revive both their teams’ relevance in the SEC as well the meaningfulness of this game on a national scale.
The story of this game could ultimately hinge on whether the two-pronged UT rushing attack of Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara can put a dent in UF’s stingy run defense which gives up just over 55 yards per game (seventh best nationally). If the Vols can force mistakes out of a relatively inexperienced Gator offense, they can escape Gainesville on the right side of what I anticipate to be a close game.
Prediction: Tennessee 20, Florida 17
#3 TCU at Texas Tech (4:45 PM, Fox)
Line: TCU -7.0
Yesh:
TCU’s defense didn’t look sharp to start the year and has been getting shredded by injuries and other defections since. Texas Tech has no real defense but has a potent offense that just took apart Arkansas. Team to get the ball last wins this track meet. Bet the over.
Prediction: TCU 52, Texas Tech 49
Steen:
TCU has a great offense with Jarrett Boykin and company but they are missing half of their defensive starters due to various injuries. That’s not a good omen on the road against an air raid Texas Tech team that has scored 35+ and is 3-0 behind the arm of Patrick Mahomes. A big win over Arkansas should have the Red Raiders fired up and TCU gave up 37 to SMU last week. TCU is still the better team talent wise, but this game should be close, and a spirited Red Raiders effort could earn them their biggest home win since they knocked off Colt McCoy and Texas in 2008. Look for both teams to play a high scoring shootout and the last team with the ball may well be the winner.
Prediction: TCU 55, Texas Tech 49
Mike:
Texas Tech is coming off an emotional, big win against Arkansas. TCU has been trying to find their rhythm through the first three games of the season, and is having to address some off- field issues. But TCU still has Trevone Boykin. This might be a trap game for the Red Radiers due to two factors. First, the emotional high of beating Arkansas might be false hope, as Arkansas doesn’t seem to be as good as advertised in the preseason. And second, TCU seems vulnerable due to lackluster performances against Minnesota and SMU, although later in the season those wins might seem a little better than they seem now. Look for TCU to get the offense in order
and pressure Tech QB Mahomes enough to spread out the point difference.
Prediction: TCU 35, Texas Tech 24
John:
The Horned Frogs were the mark of consistency last weekend against SMU, scoring two touchdowns in all four quarters of their 56-37 win in the battle for “The Iron Skillet.” TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin continues to state his case as an early season Heisman favorite, accounting for over 500 all-purpose yards and six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing).
They make the trip to Lubbock Saturday for their Big XII opener at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have to be feeling confident after going on the road and handing Arkansas its second straight non-conference loss, 35-24. Such sentiments should be enhanced after head coach Kliff Kingsbury gave his counterpart on the Razorback sideline Bret Bielema some fighting words in the post-game press conference. This after Bielema criticized Kingsbury’s high-flying style of offense at an offseason camp.
Will the recent arrests of defensive end Mike Tuaua and wide receiver Andre Petties-Wilson provide a distraction for TCU as they attempt to stay in the CFP discussion? One thing’s for sure: this game should be a shootout. These two teams rank in the top 10 nationally in both passing yards and points per game.
I feel an upset brewing in west Texas.
Prediction: Texas Tech 59, TCU 56
#9 UCLA at #16 Arizona (8 PM, ABC)
Line: UCLA -3.0
Yesh:
UCLA is a really good team on both sides of the ball, which they proved against BYU. The Cougars shut them down for most of the game but got tired against their attack towards the end. Arizona hasn’t faced any good teams yet this year but their already-struggling defense won’t be able to start Josh Rosen, Paul Perkins, and co., especially without star Scoobie Wright.
Prediction: UCLA 37, Arizona 17
Steen:
Home field advantage should help Arizona’s chances in this one as freshman QB Josh Rosen will have a big test with UCLA. With that said, though the Wildcats behind the jack of all trades Anu Solomon, their defense has looked vulnerable since Scooby Wright was injured and UCLA has a variety of air and ground attack weapons to exploit it. The UCLA defense is better than Arizona’s and the Bruins have won a tougher slate to get to 3-0 thus far. Arizona could keep it close for a while but I don’t see them outlasting UCLA in this PAC-12 battle.
Prediction: UCLA 35, Arizona 24
Mike:
UCLA will have to travel to Arizona without the services of All-American candidate Myles Jack, who was injured in practice on Tuesday. Can UCLA demonstrate the resiliency in the face of injury similar to Notre Dame? Or will Arizona stake its’ claim to be the favorite in the Pac-12 South, with USC and Arizona State faltering early in the season. Look for this to be a back-and- forth, seesaw battle with UCLA narrowly escaping the swarm.
Prediction: UCLA 23, Arizona 21
John:
Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen finally had his freshman moment in week three, tossing three interceptions and managing only 106 yards in the air as UCLA were able to barely avoid an upset against BYU. Running back Paul Perkins put the team on his back, gaining 219 yards and adding a touchdown in the 24-23 Bruins win.
Awaiting them is an Arizona team that put together an offensive performance the likes of which the program hasn’t seen before in their 77-13 win over Northern Arizona last week. The 77 points scored in addition to the 792 yards of total offense both broke school records. This despite the fact head coach Rich Rodriguez sat regular starting quarterback Anu Solomon at halftime.
UCLA is 16th nationally in points allowed (14.0) but I don’t think they’ve seen an offense as explosive as ‘Zona’s in what’s going to be a stiflingly hot Tucson with a raucous crowd behind the home team. If Rosen has another mistake-prone outing, the Wildcats may be able to pounce and collect their first win in the series since 2011 while spoiling the Bruins chance to represent the Pac-12 in the CFP.
Week 4 may yet prove to be the first Upset Saturday of the season.
Prediction: Arizona 37, UCLA 34
#18 Utah at #13 Oregon (8:30 PM, Fox)
Line: Oregon -11.0
Yesh:
Utah raced out to a 13-0 lead against Oregon last year before people realized that Kaelin Clay dropped the ball a step too soon. From there, it was a Ducks blowout. That game was a Thursday night in Utah. This year they’re playing in Autzen and, even without Marcus Mariota (or even Vernon Adams), the Oregon offense should be its normal self. Oregon has had some serious struggles on defense against their two cupcake games, but when push came to shove against Michigan State this Duck defense stepped things up and held the Spartans in (relative) check. I expect the same against this better Utah competition.
Prediction: Oregon 49, Utah 28
Steen:
Utah has started 3-0 with a relatively solid crop of wins, and they have solid defensive and offensive units with some unheralded talents including RB Devontae Booker. Oregon is at home though, and presuming Vernon Adams is healthy, they should be faster and more efficient than the Utes in this one. RB Royce Freeman is a gamer and he and Booker are perhaps the two best RBs in the PAC-12. Utah’s defense will need a spirited performance to pull this off, and I don’t think they’ll get it, but a shaky Oregon secondary should allow the Utes to keep this close.
Prediction: Oregon 48, Utah 41
Mike:
The jury still seems to be out on Oregon. They played Michigan State close and are still considered one of the top two one-loss teams in the country, but people don’t have much confidence in their defense. What’s new? With Stanford falling to Northwestern in week 1, Utah is trying to assert itself as a perennial contender for the Pac-12 North title. A huge win against the Division king in Autzen would go a long way to establishing a new pecking order in the Pac-12. Unfortunately, Utah probably doesn’t have enough firepower on offense to keep up
with the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon 41, Utah 31
John:
Much like previous seasons, the Oregon Ducks offense has no problem scoring while putting up gargantuan yardage numbers. Through three games, they’re currently ninth nationally in both scoring offense (50.0) and total yardage per game. Quarterback Vernon Adams has appeared to pick up the playbook well after transferring from Eastern Washington in the summer.
That said, they’ve been borderline porous defensively. They’re ranked in the 100s both in points given up per game and total defense. Yes, they played one of the best teams in the country in Michigan State in week two but other than that their two opponents so far have been Adams’ former school in EWU as well as Georgia State. Those two aren’t going to do the strength of schedule any good.
Adams’ status is up in the air Saturday when the Ducks host Utah. He suffered a broken finger in Oregon’s 61-28 win over GSU. If they don’t want to lose their first game in Autzen to the Utes since 1994, they’ll need running back Royce Freeman to likely take on a larger workload if Adams is a no-go. The defense will also need to slow down prolific Utah running back Devontae Booker.
I’m going to go easy on picking too many upsets this week and say the Ducks grind out a win.
Prediction: Oregon 45, Utah 30
#19 USC at Arizona State (10:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: USC -5.5
Yesh:
USC lost on a heartbreaker to Arizona State last year in Mike Bercovici’s first real action and in the game that put #Pac12AfterDark on the map. Bercovici is the starter now against a USC team whose defense was just absolutely manhandled by Stanford’s power attack. Of course, ASU runs a very different style of offense and it’s one that USC seems to have more success against. Also, the Sun Devils have looked very suspect in all three of their games so far (the second one more than the other two). I think USC gets back to their winning ways, and in statement fashion.
Prediction: USC 45, Arizona State 24
Steen:
USC got exposed in a bad loss to Stanford last week, but look for Cody Kessler to bounce back in this one. Arizona State already deflated their season with an opening loss to Texas A&M and though they have plenty of talent (including another of the PAC-12’s best QBs in Mike Bercovici), USC should be better on both sides of the ball. This is a huge PAC-12 game for the south division, and USC still has their hopes up of reaching the PAC-12 title game.
Prediction: USC 38, Arizona State 35
Mike:
USC is searching for answers after last week’s loss to unranked Stanford saw a precipitous fall in the national rankings. Would losses to unranked opponents in two straight weeks be enough cause for AD Pat Hayden to board the bus once more? Or are Stanford and Arizona State actually Top 25 caliber teams? Either way, if USC can’t figure out their assignments on defense and can’t execute better on offense, they’ll be joining Auburn on the disappointment train, 2015 edition. Look for Arizona State to play with purpose, a la Notre Dame game 2014 and for USC to play uninspired, a la last week.
Prediction: Arizona State 42, USC 38
John:
Last time the Trojans played in Tempe, they gave up 62 points and in the immediate aftermath saw athletic director Pat Haden fire then head coach Lane Kiffin as soon as they returned to Los Angeles. Fast forward to their forthcoming road trip to Sun Devil Stadium and second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian is beginning to feel the heat after a frustrating 41-31 loss to Stanford has already imperiled their hopes to return to college football’s elite.
ASU quarterback Mike Berkovici is looking to be the second straight Pac-12 signal caller to have a field day against the Trojan secondary after Stanford’s Kevin Hogan did the same last week. The Sun Devils have won three of the last four in this series and if they continue that run, expect the angst over Sark in his short tenure as head coach of USC to become even more pronounced.
That said, Arizona State hasn’t exactly been very convincing in their last two against Cal Poly and New Mexico. I think the Trojans bounce back.
Prediction: USC 38, Arizona State 30
Main Photo:
