Kingsholm has already played host to one upset at the 2015 Rugby World Cup when the mighty Georgians downed an underwhelming Tonga side. This Wednesday afternoon, the people of Gloucestershire will welcome with respect the Japan team which ignored the script and overturned rugby hierarchy in the greatest World Cup shock of them all. They face a Scottish side with table-topping ambitions and a hunger to get their campaign off to a winning start.
Scotland Must Be Wary of Japanese Threat
It was refreshing to witness the bravery and confidence of Japan as they opted to win the game against South Africa rather than draw it, and they had the quality to back up their ambition also. Eddie Jones, the former Wallabies coach, has developed them into a well-drilled side who look like they know what they are doing. Their outstanding try from a set-piece move late in the game echoed that.
However, they have now lost the element of surprise, and if Scotland were ever going to take them lightly before the tournament, then they certainly won’t now. Vern Cotter and his coaching setup now have plenty of video to analyse in order to prepare their side, and that is more than South Africa had prior to their fixture.
Furthermore, the match on Wednesday takes place just four days after Japan’s last game, and that is an extraordinarily short recovery period for any side. But now Japan are in with a sniff of qualification, they will want to stick with the same XV, who will still boast bumps and bruises from that match.
That said, the same Japanese threat that saw them overcome the Springboks will remain. The scrum, led by tighthead Kensuke Hatakeyama, dominated the South African pack which is almost unheard of. The captain, Michael Leitch, would carry a rugby ball into almost anything, and fullback Ayumu Goromaru is a fantastic place-kicker and counter-attacker from deep.
As of today, Japan are ranked 11th in the world, just in front of Scotland, an intriguing situation which now makes the 1991 semi-finalists underdogs for this match.
However Scotland have hit a purple patch recently, as they defeated Italy twice, and narrowly lost to Ireland and three-time finalists, France. In these warm-ups they proved that their scrum had come on leaps and bounds, while their attacking play had become a lot more incisive and fluid, featuring offloads, crossfield kicks, and variation, orchestrated by young Glasgow fly-half Finn Russell.
If Scotland can gain the upper hand against Japan in the scrum, which they do have the personnel to do, then their penalty concession will be lower, leading to more territory. And if this Scottish backline are playing at the right end of the field then they will cause the Japanese defence all sorts of problems. Even if Japan are on top, Scotland boast one of the best counter-attacking fullbacks in the game in Stuart Hogg, along with the in-form Sean Lamont on the wing.
As aforementioned, set-piece dominance will lead to victory, so that is where Scotland must attack Japan. If they are successful in that, then fatigue may start coursing through Japanese bodies and there will be acres of space in the wide channels for the dynamic Scottish backs to exploit.
Scotland side to face Japan on Wednesday 23rd September: (Kick-off 14:30)
15. Stuart Hogg (33 caps, 9 tries, 48 points)
14. Tommy Seymour (18 caps, 7 tries, 35 points)
13. Mark Bennett (9 caps, 3 tries, 15 points)
12. Matt Scott (28 caps, 3 tries, 15 points)
11. Sean Lamont (97 caps, 14 tries, 70 points)
10. Finn Russell (11 caps, 1 try, 9 points)
9. Greig Laidlaw © (41 caps, 3 tries, 367 points)
1. Alasdair Dickinson (47 caps, 2 tries, 10 points)
2. Ross Ford (89 caps, 2 tries, 10 points)
3. William Nel (3 caps, 0 points)
4. Grant Gilchrist (10 caps, 1 try, 5 points)
5. Jonny Gray (15 caps, 1 try, 5 points)
6. Ryan Wilson (11 caps, 0 points)
7. John Hardie (2 caps, 0 points)
8. David Denton (28 caps, 0 points)
Replacements:
16. Fraser Brown (10 caps, 0 points)
17. Ryan Grant (23 caps, 0 points)
18. Jon Welsh (7 caps, 1 try, 5 points)
19. Richie Gray (47 caps, 2 tries, 10 points)
20. Josh Strauss (0 caps)
21. Henry Pyrgos (16 caps, 4 tries, 20 points)
22. Peter Horne (10 caps, 1 try, 10 points)
23. Sean Maitland (16 caps, 2 tries, 10 points)
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