There are many ways to value a baseball player. The first and most obvious is his value in play. What a player does in the batter’s box, on the base paths and on defense all go into this value. But there’s more that a player can do than just what he gives to a team between the lines. Off-the-field contributions and star power can play a role in a team’s value of a player. There might not be a better example of this than Joe Mauer’s value to the Minnesota Twins.
First, let’s look at the baseball side of things for Mauer. If you’re not into the Sabermetric revolution or all the analytics that are involved with baseball statistics, I understand. It’s a bit overwhelming, and it’s not the absolute truth that some analytics guys make it out to be. Still, some tools, like WAR, are very useful to determine the value of different players, or in some cases the different value of the same player in different circumstances. After all, if I ask you what the difference in value is between an above average bat at catcher and an above average bat at first base, you would probably say the catcher is certainly more valuable. But how much better is the catcher than the first baseman?
That’s where WAR comes in. We can determine the value of players using their offensive, defensive and base running values while adjusting for position and league and season. Remember that Mauer had a monster 2009 season that boosts his numbers at catcher. Even with taking that into account, the difference in value between his catcher seasons and his last two seasons exclusively at first base is shocking. During the ten seasons in which he played mostly catcher, Joe Mauer accumulated +42.9 WAR, which averages out to about +4.3 WAR per season. Over the last two seasons, however, he’s played exclusively first base or designated hitter, and he has managed just +1.8 WAR over that time span. Most of that was from last season, meaning he’s been just barely above the value of a player they could have found on the waiver wire or from a lifetime minor leaguer.
So the Twins are paying $23 million to a replacement level player. Plus they owe him $23 million each season until 2018. For a team that might be turning the corner and is on the verge of contending, this is not the best use of the budget. Of course, one might say that this year is just a down year, and that he’ll turn it back around next year. You could certainly make that case. His walk rate just isn’t what it used to be. His career BABIP is at .345; so far this year it’s at .313. Even without being a double-digit home run guy, his career ISO is somewhere around .138, and this year it’s at .108. It could be an off-year, or it could be the beginning of his decline. In my mind, at 32, it’s still too quick to call him done just yet. Hopefully a bounce back is on the horizon, but it’s hard to say for sure.
Still, baseball skills aren’t the only thing that he brings to the table. His leadership in that Twins clubhouse is unquestioned. Being a former catcher, he understands the game and how pitchers might be attacking not only himself but also his teammates on a given day. Also, there’s no doubting his ability to draw in Minnesota fans. Born and raised in Minnesota, he’s a hometown hero of sorts and his charisma and charm have endeared him to the public there.
With or without his bat being as good as it used to be, Joe Mauer’s value to the club may be more than I first realized when I started looking at the whole package. He is the heart and soul of this franchise. Despite his recent struggles, it would be hard to see the next successful Twins team without Joe Mauer right in the middle of it. That’s happening sooner than anyone thought. Despite his lack of value in strict baseball terms, he might have more to do with that than we realize.
