Sean Day – Prospect Watch 2015-16

When the 2015-16 hockey season begins all eyes will be on Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. Both household names across the hockey world, both dubbed generational talents, both set to begin their NHL careers in October. While McDavid and Eichel will most certainly provide entertaining story-lines to hockey fans for the next 20+ years there are a number of other NHL prospects suiting up in the OHL that are worth keeping an eye on. Some have serious breakout potential, some will face new challenges and increased responsibility, some are in need of a bounce back season. Whatever the case it is my goal that by the time the puck drops on September 24th you have the information and insight you need to follow more than just your favourite CHL team.

Sean Day

6”2” 230lbs

Shoots: Left

2014-2015 Team: Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)

Draft Status: Eligible in 2016

What do John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad and Connor McDavid have in common? Each was drafted 1st overall at the OHL Priority Selection Draft, each was drafted 1st overall at the NHL Entry Draft, each player joined the NHL as an 18 year old (going out on a limb to predict McDavid sticks in Edmonton this season) and each player was granted Exceptional Player Status by Hockey Canada. Exceptional Player Status allows a player to enter their respective CHL Draft, and thus the CHL, at the age of 15, one year earlier than the minimum age requirement of 16. This is an extremely elite club and Hockey Canada does not simply hand out Exceptional Player Status to anyone: Tyler Seguin, Taylor Hall, Corey Perry, Sidney Crosby, Nathan McKinnon, none of these players were granted Exceptional Player Status. The WHL has never deemed a player exceptional and the QMJHL only named its first exceptional player this year, a forward named Joseph Veleno.

Enter Sean Day; the fourth player granted exceptional status by the CHL. Day is an extremely mobile, big-bodied defenseman whose elite skating ability helps him navigate the ice with extraordinary efficiency and quickness. Some claim, however, that Day has failed to meet the hype incumbent with being labeled an exceptional player. Critics claim that Day was undeserving of the honour and point to the “struggles” he has faced during his first two OHL seasons as proof. To be fair, Tavares, Ekblad and McDavid set the bar unreasonably high as to what we should expect from an exceptional player.

It is difficult to compare McDavid and Tavares to Day, simply because of their positions. It makes much more sense to compare Day with Aaron Ekblad, the only other defenseman to be awarded Exceptional Player Status. Nobody doubts that Ekblad was worthy of the honour, especially after the season he just had in Florida. When we look at the numbers a little more closely, we begin to see that Day’s first two seasons aren’t terribly out of whack with Ekblad’s, and that he may primed for significant increase in point production.

Ekblad vs. Day – First 2 OHL Seasons

Player	GP	G	A	P	PIM	PPG	+/-
Aaron Ekblad	117	17	46	63	98	.53	+24
Sean Day	121	16	36	52	96	.43	-62

Aaron Ekblad had the benefit of playing on a much more successful and experienced team than did Sean Day in his first two OHL seasons. 2011-12 was Ekblad’s rookie season in the OHL. That year his Barrie Colts finished second in the OHL’s Central Division and 3rd in the Eastern Conference. The Colts also scored 248 goals, good enough for 6th in the league. Day, on the other hand, broke into the league with the Mississauga Steelheads in 2013-14, a team that finished last in the Central Division and 17th overall. The Steelheads only scored 167 goals that year which was the league’s worst GF by 20; only one other team scored less than 200 goals that season.

When we compare the point production of Ekblad and Day the separation between the two is insignificant. Granted, Ekblad produced better numbers, but Day wasn’t a total slouch. These numbers don’t take into account some key factors such as ice-time, zone starts, PP/PK time, etc., stats that are not kept at the CHL level, making it more difficult to draw concrete conclusions. If we look a little closer at stats the CHL does keep (Wins, Losses, Goals For, etc.) we can begin to form an idea of why, possibly, Ekblad was able to produce better numbers and higher praise.

In Ekblad’s sophomore season (2012-13) the Colts finished atop the Central Division with 92 points. They also out-scored all other Central Division teams and ranked 7th in GF in the entire OHL (245 goals). Day’s sophomore season (2014-15) saw the Steelhead’s finish ahead of only the lowly Sudbury Wolves in the Central Division; a team that collected a measly 12 wins that year. Overall, Mississauga finished ahead of only Sudbury and Windsor in the OHL standings. The Steelheads scored 178 goals in 2014-15; only one team scored fewer (guess who?).

Season Breakdown: Mississauga Steelheads vs. Barrie Colts

Team	Player	Wins	Losses	OTL	SOL	Points	GF	GA
Barrie Colts	Ekblad (Rookie)	40	23	3	2	85	248	210
Mississauga Steelheads	Day (Rookie)	24	28	1	5	54	167	267
Barrie Colts	Ekblad (Season 2)	44	20	2	2	92	245	185
Mississauga Steelheads	Day (Season 2)	25	40	2	1	53	178	265

This season Day has one more year of experience, he’s one year older and he’ll be surrounded by a better supporting cast. If he can tighten up his defensive play and build on the improvements to his offensive game, then he’ll silence his critics and put himself in a position to hear his name called early at the NHL draft in June. He probably won’t be selected first, win the Calder, break any records or even play in the NHL at 18 like Ekblad, but that doesn’t mean he was undeserving of Exceptional Player Status, it just means he’s not Aaron Ekblad, and almost no one can fill those shoes. What I am suggesting is that critics have been, I believe, unjustifiably critical of Day to this point. He is still young, and as we’ve seen, time and time again, it takes longer for defensemen to mature and develop at any level. Unfortunately for Sean Day, he is forever linked to Aaron Ekblad because they share the Exceptional Player label. Even if Day is unable to match Ekblad’s draft year success, it doesn’t mean that he cannot develop into a quality NHL defenseman. No matter what the outcome, it will be exciting to monitor Day’s play this season. If he has a slow start, or drops in the draft rankings, I expect there will be no shortage of critics jumping at the chance to criticize Hockey Canada for miss-applying the Exceptional Player label.

I am not trying to suggest that Day simply hasn’t produced because he has played on weaker teams than Aaron Ekblad did, that analysis would be far too simplistic. There are absolutely justifiable criticisms in Day’s game; mis-reads, defensive play, decision making, compete level, consistency etc. and while plus/minus is not a direct indication of effectiveness the most notable difference between Ekblad and Day from the table above is the gap between their plus/minus totals. Day needs to improve his play on the defensive side of the puck. He has the size and skating to be very effective in the defensive zone, and if he can consistently make better decisions and reads, his defensive zone play could become a strength. Based on this breakdown it is not hard to understand why Aaron Ekblad may have had an easier time putting up points than Sean Day did.

Aaron Ekblad’s Draft Year (2013-14) vs. Sean Day’s Draft Year (Prediction for 2015-2016)